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Learning Analytics (or: The Data Tsunami Hits Higher Education)
Simon Buckingham Shum Knowledge Media Institute The Open University UK http://simon.buckinghamshum.net http://linkedin.com/in/simon
Keynote Address to The Impact of Higher Education: Addressing the Challenges of the 21st Century European Association for Institutional Research (EAIR) 35th Annual Forum 2013, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 28-31 August 2013. http://www.eair.nl/forum/rotterdam
@sbskmi #LearningAnalytics
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70-strong lab prototyping next generation learning / collaboration / social media
analytics / future internet
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EAIR Track 2: Student learning and the student experience
§ Methods, metrics and methodologies § Measuring impact § Performance indicators for specific activities § Data collection and validity
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learning objective:
walk out with
better questions than you can ask right now
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From an analytics product review…
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From an analytics product review…
“Some have tried to argue that this technology doesn't work out cost effectively when compared to conventional tests... but this misses a huge point. More often than not, we test after the event and discover the problem — but this is too late..”
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Aquarium Analytics!
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How is your aquatic ecosystem?
“This means that the keeper can be notified before water conditions directly harm the fish—an assured outcome of predictive software that lets you know if it looks like the pH is due to drop, or the temperature is on its way up.
This way, it’s a real fish saver, as opposed to a forensic examiner, post-wipeout.”
(From a review of Seneye, in a hobbyist magazine) 9
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How is your learning ecosystem?
This means that the teacher can be notified before learning conditions directly harm the students — an assured outcome of predictive software that lets you know if it looks like engagement is due to drop, or distraction is on its way up.
This way, it’s a real student saver, as opposed to a forensic examiner, post-wipeout.
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why are we seeing this?... 11
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12 L. Johnson, R. Smith, H. Willis, A. Levine, and K. Haywood, The 2011 Horizon Report (Austin, TX: The New Media Consortium,
2011), http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2011-Horizon-Report.pdf
NMC Horizon 2011 Report: Learning Analytics (4-5yrs adoption)
Why are we seeing this?...
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Audrey Waters: http://hackeducation.com/2012/11/19/top-ed-tech-trends-of-2012-the-business-of-ed-tech
Ed-Tech startups explosive growth
Why are we seeing this?...
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Why are we seeing this?...
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VLEs + Analytics Publishers + Analytics
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futurelearn.com
Why are we seeing this?...
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16 https://www.edx.org/about
“this is big data, giving us the chance to ask big
questions about learning”
Why are we seeing this?...
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17 http://careers.stackoverflow.com/jobs/35348/software-engineer-analytics-coursera
Why are we seeing this?...
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the data/analytics tsunami is about to hit
the education sector 18
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Data and analytics are transforming business, government and public services
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Why would Higher Education be immune? Why wouldn’t a sector focused on evidence-based thinking and action welcome it?
A critical discussion is emerging More later…
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Stephen Hawking "I think the next century will be the century of complexity." January 23, 2000, San Jose Mercury News
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The “age of complexity”
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Surprising behaviour due to complexity…
Cascade effects due to strong interactions…
Unexpected transition, systemic shift…
Emergence of new systemic properties…
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Tectonic forces are reshaping the learning landscape…
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the opportunity for
learning design learning sciences
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Back to Aquarium Analytics…
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fish aquarium science
learners? learning science
instructional design
Back to Aquarium Analytics…
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Purdue University Signals: real time traffic-lights for students based on predictive model
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Purdue University Signals: real time traffic-lights for students based on predictive model
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Predicted 66%-80% of struggling students who needed help
MODEL: • ACT or SAT score • Overall grade-point average • CMS usage composite • CMS assessment composite • CMS assignment composite • CMS calendar composite
Campbell et al (2007). Academic Analytics: A New Tool for a New Era, EDUCAUSE Review, vol. 42, no. 4 (July/August 2007): 40–57. http://bit.ly/lmxG2x
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Purdue University Signals: real time traffic-lights for students based on predictive model
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“Results thus far show that students who have engaged with
Course Signals have higher average grades and seek out help
resources at a higher rate than other students.”
Pistilli, M. D., Arnold, K. and Bethune, M., Signals: Using Academic Analytics to Promote Student Success. EDUCAUSE Review Online, July/Aug., (2012). http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/signals-using-academic-analytics-promote-student-success
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Predictive analytics @open.edu
Registra)on Pa.ern
CRM contact
VLE interac)on
Grades
Demo-‐graphics
? How early can we predict likelihood of dropout, formal withdrawal, failure? Now exploring conventional statistics, machine learning and growing datasets
Library interac)on
OpenLearn interac)on
FutureLearn interac)on
Social App X interac)on OU history
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Predictive analytics @open.edu
A.L. Wolff and Z. Zdrahal (2012). Improving Retention by Identifying and Supporting “At-risk” Students. EDUCAUSE Review Online, July-August 2012. http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/improving-retention-identifying-and-supporting-risk-students
Test a range of predictive models:
final result (pass/fail) final numerical score drop in the next TMA score of the next TMA
Demo- graphics
Previous results
VLE activity
Adding in user interaction data from the VLE
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Hmmm…
no learning sciences/design underpinning these predictive models of student success
models based on a mix of
institutional know-how about student success, and mining
behavioural data
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the opportunity for the
learning sciences to combine with your university’s
collective intelligence
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predictive models are exciting
but there are many other
kinds of analytics
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Analytics 101 Elaborated version of figure from Doug Clow: h.p://www.slideshare.net/dougclow/the-‐learning-‐analy)cs-‐cycle-‐closing-‐the-‐loop-‐effec)vely (slide 5)
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What kinds of learners? What kinds of learning?
What data could be generated digitally
from the use context? (you can invent future technologies if need)
Does your theory predict patterns
signifying learning?
What human +/or software
interventions /recommendations?
How to render the analytics, for whom, and will they
understand them?
What analytical tools could be used to find
such patterns?
ethics
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Analytics coming to a VLE near you: Blackboard basic summary stats
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http://www.blackboard.com/Platforms/Analytics/Products/Blackboard-Analytics-for-Learn.aspx
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Student Activity Dashboard (Erik Duval)
Duval E. (2011) Attention please!: learning analytics for visualization and recommendation. Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge. Banff, Alberta, Canada: ACM, 9-17.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLt6mMQH1OY
Khan Academy has extended great instructional movies with a tutoring platform with detailed analytics
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https://grockit.com/research
Adaptive platforms generate fine-grained analytics on curriculum mastery
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Intelligent tutoring for skills mastery (CMU) http://oli.cmu.edu
Lovett M, Meyer O and Thille C. (2008) The Open Learning Initiative: Measuring the effectiveness of the OLI statistics course in accelerating student learning. Journal of Interactive Media in Education 14. http://jime.open.ac.uk/article/2008-14/352
“In this study, results showed that OLI-Statistics students [blended learning] learned a full semester’s worth of material in half as much time and performed as well or better than students learning from traditional instruction over a full semester.”
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Track learner activity with a virtual machine (Abelardo Pardo, LAK13 Conference Keynote)
http://www.slideshare.net/abelardo_pardo/bridging-the-middle-space-with-learning-analytics
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Track learner activity with a virtual machine (Abelardo Pardo, LAK13 Conference Keynote)
http://www.slideshare.net/abelardo_pardo/bridging-the-middle-space-with-learning-analytics Calvo, R., O’Rourke, S.T., Jones, J., Yacef, K., Reimann, P., 2011. Collaborative Writing Support Tools on the Cloud. IEEE Transactions on Learning Technologies, 4(1):88–97
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Macro/Meso/Micro Learning Analytics
Macro: region/state/national/international
League Tables Data Interoperability Initiatives
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Macro/Meso/Micro Learning Analytics
Meso: institution-wide
Macro: region/state/national/international
Business Intelligence Products
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Business Intelligence
≠ Learning Analytics
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Micro: individual user actions
(and hence cohort)
Macro/Meso/Micro Learning Analytics
Meso: institution-wide
Macro: region/state/national/international
Learning Analytics
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Micro: individual user actions
(and hence cohort)
Hard distinctions between Learning + Academic analytics may dissolve
Meso: institution-wide
Macro: region/state/national/international
Aggregation of user traces enriches meso + macro analytics with finer-grained process data
…as they get joined up, each level enriches the others
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Micro: individual user actions
(and hence cohort)
Hard distinctions between Learning + Academic analytics may dissolve
Meso: institution-wide
Macro: region/state/national/international
Aggregation of user traces enriches meso + macro analytics with finer-grained process data
Breadth + depth from macro + meso levels add power to
micro analytics
…as they get joined up, each level enriches the others
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Data Intent
Analytics are not the end, but a means The goal is to optimize the whole system
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learners
researchers / educators / instructional designers
theories pedagogies
assessments tools
desi
gn feedback
intent
outcome
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Ed Dumbill: http://strata.oreilly.com/2012/08/digital-nervous-system-big-data.html
Could your university make this evolutionary step?
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Optimize the system for what?
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design analytics to achieve your university’s strategic
goals
(increasingly differentiated as the sector stratifies?)
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learning analytics that build the qualities needed to thrive with
extreme complexity unprecedented uncertainty
novel dilemmas
? 54
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OECD DeSeCo Final Report Definition & Selection of Key Competencies
55 http://www.deseco.admin.ch
“The OECD has collaborated with a wide range of scholars,
experts and institutions to identify a small set of key competencies that help individuals and whole
societies to meet their goals.”
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analytics for social capital
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Social Network Analysis (SNAPP)
57 Bakharia, A. and Dawson, S., SNAPP: a bird's-eye view of temporal participant interaction. In: Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge (Banff, Alberta, Canada, 2011). ACM. pp.168-173
What’s going on in these discussion forums?
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Social Network Analysis (SNAPP)
58 http://www.slideshare.net/aneeshabakharia/snapp-20minute-presentation
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Social Network Analysis (SNAPP)
59 http://www.slideshare.net/aneeshabakharia/snapp-20minute-presentation
2 learners connect otherwise separate clusters
tutor only engaging with active students, ignoring disengaged ones on the edge
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Social Learning Analytics about to appear in products…
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http://www.desire2learn.com/products/analytics (this is from a beta demo)
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discourse analytics for using language as
a knowledge-building tool
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Discourse analytics on webinar textchat
Ferguson, R. and Buckingham Shum, S., Learning analytics to identify exploratory dialogue within synchronous text chat. In: 1st International Conference on Learning Analytics and Knowledge (Banff, Canada, 2011). ACM
Can we spot the quality learning conversations in a 2.5 hr webinar?
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
9:2
8 9
:32
9:3
6
9:4
0
9:4
1
9:4
6
9:5
0
9:5
3
9:5
6
10:
00
10:
05
10:
07
10:
07
10:
09
10:
13
10:
17
10:
23
10:
27
10:
31
10:
35
10:
40
10:
45
10:
52
10:
55
11:
04
11:
08
11:
11
11:
17
11:
20
11:
24
11:
26
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35
11:
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11:
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52
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54
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00
12:
03
12:
04
12:
05
Average Exploratory
Discourse analytics on webinar textchat
Sheffield, UK not as sunny as yesterday - still warm Greetings from Hong Kong Morning from Wiltshire, sunny here!
See you! bye for now! bye, and thank you Bye all for now
Given a 2.5 hour webinar, where in the live textchat were the most effective learning conversations? Not at the start and end of a webinar…
Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664
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-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
9:2
8 9
:32
9:3
6
9:4
0
9:4
1
9:4
6
9:5
0
9:5
3
9:5
6
10:
00
10:
05
10:
07
10:
07
10:
09
10:
13
10:
17
10:
23
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27
10:
31
10:
35
10:
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04
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08
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11
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17
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24
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04
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Average Exploratory
Discourse analytics on webinar textchat
Given a 2.5 hour webinar, where in the live textchat were the most effective learning conversations? Not at the start and end of a webinar but if we zoom in on a peak…
Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664
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Discourse analytics on webinar textchat
-100
-50
0
50
100
9:2
8 9
:40
9
:50
1
0:00
1
0:07
1
0:17
1
0:31
1
0:45
1
1:04
1
1:17
1
1:26
1
1:32
1
1:38
1
1:44
1
1:52
1
2:03
Averag
Classified as “exploratory
talk”
(more substantive for learning)
“non-exploratory”
Given a 2.5 hour webinar, where in the live textchat were the most effective learning conversations? Not at the start and end of a webinar but if we zoom in on a peak…
Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664
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Discourse analytics on webinar textchat
Visualizing by individual user. The gradient of the threshold line is adjusted to every 5 posts in 6 classified as “Exploratory Talk”
Ferguson, R., Wei, Z., He, Y. and Buckingham Shum, S., An Evaluation of Learning Analytics to Identify Exploratory Dialogue in Online Discussions. In: Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge (Leuven, BE, 8-12 April, 2013). ACM. http://oro.open.ac.uk/36664
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“Rhetorical parsing” to identify constructions signifying scholarly writing
OPEN QUESTION: “… little is known …” “… role … has been elusive” “Current data is insufficient …”
CONTRASTING IDEAS: “… unorthodox view resolves …” “In contrast with previous hypotheses ...” “... inconsistent with past findings ...”
SURPRISE: “We have recently observed ... surprisingly” “We have identified ... unusual” “The recent discovery ... suggests intriguing roles”
http://technologies.kmi.open.ac.uk/cohere/2012/01/09/cohere-plus-automated-rhetorical-annotation De Liddo, A., Sándor, Á. and Buckingham Shum, S., Contested Collective Intelligence: Rationale, Technologies, and a Human-Machine Annotation Study. Computer Supported Cooperative Work, 21, 4-5, (2012), 417-448. http://oro.open.ac.uk/31052 Simsek D, Buckingham Shum S, Sándor Á, De Liddo A and Ferguson R. (2013) XIP Dashboard: http://oro.open.ac.uk/37391
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“What are the key contributions of this text?
http://technologies.kmi.open.ac.uk/cohere/2012/01/09/cohere-plus-automated-rhetorical-annotation De Liddo, A., Sándor, Á. and Buckingham Shum, S., Contested Collective Intelligence: Rationale, Technologies, and a Human-Machine Annotation Study. Computer Supported Cooperative Work, 21, 4-5, (2012), 417-448. http://oro.open.ac.uk/31052 Simsek D, Buckingham Shum S, Sándor Á, De Liddo A and Ferguson R. (2013) XIP Dashboard: http://oro.open.ac.uk/37391
Human analyst Computational analyst
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Social Learning Analytics
Buckingham Shum, Simon and Ferguson, Rebecca (2012). Social Learning Analytics. Journal of Educational Technology and Society, 15(3) pp. 3–26. http://oro.open.ac.uk/34092
• Explosive growth in social media
• The open/free content paradigm
• Evidence of a global shift in societal attitudes which increasingly values participation
• Innovation depends on reciprocal social relationships, tacit knowing
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intrinsic motivation self-regulation
resilience
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Why do dispositions matter?
71
“Knowledge of methods alone will not suffice: there must be the desire, the will, to employ them. This desire is an affair of personal disposition.”
John Dewey
Dewey, J. How We Think: A Restatement of the Relation of Reflective Thinking to the Educative Process. Heath and Co, Boston, 1933
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“In the growth mindset, people believe that their talents and abilities can be developed through passion, education, and persistence … It’s about a commitment to … taking informed risks … surrounding yourself with people who will challenge you to grow”
Carol Dweck
72 Interview with Carol Dweck: http://interviewscoertvisser.blogspot.co.uk/2007/11/interview-with-carol-dweck_4897.html
Why do dispositions matter?
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“We’re looking at the profiles of what it means to be effective in the 21st century. […] Resilience will be the defining concept. When challenged and bent, you learn and bounce back stronger.”
“Dispositions are now at least as important as Knowledge and Skills. …They cannot be taught. They can only be cultivated.”
John Seely Brown
73
http://reimaginingeducation.org conference (May 28, 2013) Dispositions clip: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/clip/4457327 Whole talk: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/SecD
Why do dispositions matter?
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How can we model and quantify learning
dispositions in order to develop analytics?
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Validated as loading onto 7 dimensions of “Learning Power”
Changing & Learning
Meaning Making
Critical Curiosity
Creativity
Learning Relationships
Strategic Awareness
Resilience
Being Stuck & Static
Data Accumulation
Passivity
Being Rule Bound
Isolation & Dependence
Being Robotic
Fragility & Dependence
Ruth Deakin Crick Grad. School of Education
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Learning to Learn: 7 Dimensions of Learning Power Factor analysis of the literature plus expert interviews: identified seven dimensions of effective “learning power”, since validated empirically with learners at many levels. (Deakin Crick, Broadfoot and Claxton, 2004)
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Learning to Learn: 7 Dimensions of Learning Power
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next step: platforms for Dispositional Learning
Analytics
78 DLA Workshop: http://learningemergence.net/events/lasi-dla-wkshp
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Analytics for lifelong/lifewide learning dispositions: ELLI
Buckingham Shum, S. and Deakin Crick, R. (2012). Learning Dispositions and Transferable Competencies: Pedagogy, Modelling and Learning Analytics. Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Learning Analytics & Knowledge. (29 Apr-2 May, Vancouver). Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/32823
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ELLI generates cohort data for each dimension
Buckingham Shum, S. and Deakin Crick, R. (2012). Learning Dispositions and Transferable Competencies: Pedagogy, Modelling and Learning Analytics. Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Learning Analytics & Knowledge. (29 Apr-2 May, Vancouver). Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/32823
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Primary School EnquiryBloggers Bushfield School, Wolverton, UK
EnquiryBlogger: blogging for Learning Power & Authentic Enquiry http://learningemergence.net/2012/06/20/enquiryblogger-for-learning-power-authentic-enquiry
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Masters level EnquiryBloggers Graduate School of Education, University of Bristol
EnquiryBlogger: blogging for Learning Power & Authentic Enquiry http://learningemergence.net/2012/06/20/enquiryblogger-for-learning-power-authentic-enquiry
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EnquiryBlogger dashboard – direct
navigation to learner’s blogs from the visual
analytic
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learning analytics
are not neutral
84
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Accounting tools are not neutral
“accounting tools...do not simply aid the measurement of economic activity, they shape the reality they measure”
Du Gay, P. and Pryke, M. (2002) Cultural Economy: Cultural Analysis and Commercial Life. Sage, London. pp. 12-13
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cf. Bowker and Starr’s “Sorting Things Out” on classification schemes
Buckingham Shum, S. and Deakin Crick, R. (2012). Learning Dispositions and Transferable Competencies: Pedagogy, Modelling and Learning Analytics. Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. Learning Analytics & Knowledge. (29 Apr-2 May, 2012, Vancouver, BC). ACM. Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/32823
“A marker of the health of the learning analytics field will be the quality of debate around what the technology renders visible and leaves invisible.”
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DIY Analytics Elaborated version of figure from Doug Clow: h.p://www.slideshare.net/dougclow/the-‐learning-‐analy)cs-‐cycle-‐closing-‐the-‐loop-‐effec)vely (slide 5)
87
What kinds of learners? What kinds of learning?
What data could be generated digitally
from the use context? (you can invent future technologies if need)
Does your theory predict patterns
signifying learning?
What human +/or software
interventions /recommendations?
How to render the analytics, for whom, and will they
understand them?
What analytical tools could be used to find
such patterns?
ethics
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The Wal-Martification of education?
88 http://chronicle.com/blogs/techtherapy/2012/05/02/episode-95-learning-analytics-could-lead-to-wal-martification-of-college http://lak12.wikispaces.com/Recordings
“The basic question is not what can we measure? The basic question is
what does a good education look like?
Big questions.
“data narrowness” “instrumental learning”
“students with no curiosity”
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“Our analytics are our pedagogy”
(and epistemology)
They promote assessment regimes — which drive (and strangle)
educational innovation
Knight S., Buckingham Shum S. and Littleton K. (2013) Epistemology, Pedagogy, Assessment and Learning Analytics. Proc. 3rd International Conference on Learning Analytics & Knowledge. Leuven, BE: ACM, 75-84 Open Access Eprint: http://oro.open.ac.uk/36635
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Will your staff know how to read and write analytics?
This will become a key literacy.
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If learning analytics became a new kind of performance
indicator would they have the confidence of staff, or students?
Formative? Summative?
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to learn more…
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Join the community…
93
http://SoLAResearch.org
http://LAKconference.org
replays of all previous
conference presentations
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Join the community…
94 http://www.solaresearch.org/events/lasi
replays of all sessions
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JISC Briefings on Learning Analytics
95 http://publications.cetis.ac.uk/c/analytics
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EDUCAUSE Briefings on Learning Analytics
96 http://www.educause.edu/library/learning-analytics
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Learning Analytics Policy Brief (UNESCO • IITE)
97 http://bit.ly/LearningAnalytics
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LearningEmergence.net
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summary
99
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100
Academic Culture
data-intensive learning sciences/
educ research
C21 Competencies visualize + feed back
learning dynamics
Practitioner Culture
evidence impact timely interventions
The big shifts that analytics could bring…
Organisational Culture
evidence-based decisions and org learning
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101
combine your datasets with new data + algorithms
partner with your VLE + computational
colleagues
pedagogical innovation
how do learning analytics change
student experience?
educator data literacy
how do staff learn to read and write
analytics?
Possible EAIR+LA synergies?
data-culture dynamics
how do HEIs manage the embedding of real time analytics
services?