September 23, 2019
Transitions to renewable energy and sustainable prosperity in Lebanon
Lea KaiProject Manager
Climate Change projects UNDP/Ministry of Environment
Lebanon under Climate ChangeWhat to expect in 2030?
+1°CWarmer than pre-industrial levels
+3°CWarming by end of century
-49%Emission reduction by 2030
-100%Achieve carbon neutrality by 2030
85%of renewables by 2050
The world has only
12 yearsTo effect a complete transition in economy and society
IPC
C -
Spec
ial R
epo
rt o
n 1
.5°C
(2
01
8)
Projected changes in temperatures
Sou
rce
| A
dap
ted
fro
m E
SCW
A, 2
01
5
Reference Period (1986-2005) RCP4.5 (2046-2065) RCP8.5 (2046-2065)
RCP8.5 (2081-2100)Reference Period (1986-2005) RCP4.5 (2081-2100)
Projected changes in precipitations
Sou
rce
| A
dap
ted
fro
m E
SCW
A, 2
01
5
RCP4.5 (2046-2065) RCP8.5 (2046-2065)Reference Period (1986-2005)
RCP4.5 (2081-2100) RCP8.5 (2081-2100)Reference Period (1986-2005)
Climate change indices by 2080-2100
Sou
rce
| A
dap
ted
fro
m E
SCW
A, 2
01
5
Summer days Tmax>
35°C
Maximum length of dry
spell
Under moderate
scenario (RCP4.5)
Under worst case
scenario (RCP8.5)
+ 15 days + 43 days
+ 1 day + 6 days
Impact on Electricity
Increased temperature
Increased demand for cooling
Increased consumption for electricity
2040 2080
+3.8% +5.8%
Increased E demand for cooling
+1°C
+1.8%+ 2%
+2°C +5°C
+900 Billion USD
+34.8 Billion USD
Cost of additional E consumption USD 0.21 per kWh - recent cost of incremental increases in electricity generation (WB, 2008- adjusted to 2015)
300
10 13
470
213 7
22
110
47,200 177,900
62
29
5938 43
22
57
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Costs in 2020(million USD)
Increased cooling demand
Increased E consumption
Increased emissions
Increased climate change
The Challenge of Climate Migrants
Storms, sea level rise, water scarcity, droughts
Reduced agricultural output
Reduced earnings of farmers and workers in related industries
Internal migration
Reduced in per capita income on forced migrants (informal sector)
-45%
-3%
+9%
Potential number of internal migrants and their loss of income from climate-related impacts
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2020 2040 2080
Potential number of internal migrants
Lebanon Beirut Mount Lebanon
Northern Lebanon Bekaa Southern Lebanon
Nabatieh
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2020 2040 2080
Potential lost income for migrants (millions)
Lebanon Beirut Mount Lebanon
Northern Lebanon Bekaa Southern Lebanon
Nabatieh
The Government’s reaction
The Paris Agreement
Lebanon’s commitments
Cut CO2 emissions
Unconditional target
Conditional to finance, technical support and capacity building
2030
15%
30%
2015 Internal sectoral targets by 2030
Mitigation
Energy
Refurbishment, replacement and extension of conventional power generation capacities Fuel switch to natural gas
An unconditional 3%reduction in power demand through Energy Efficiencymeasures, increases to 10% conditional to support
An unconditional 15% increase in the share of Renewables in meeting heat and power demand, increases to 20% conditional to support
Transport
An unconditional 36%stabilization of the share of annual passenger-kilometers driven using public transport, increases to 48%conditional to support
A conditional 20% increase in the share of fuel-efficient vehicles in the fleet
Waste
Waste management through energy recovery, equivalent to avoiding emissions from landfilling at 1,000 tonnes per day
An unconditional recycling rate of 25%, increases to 30% conditional to support
An unconditional treatment of 51% of municipal wastewater, increases to 70%conditional to support
Forestry
An unconditional target of 20 million trees planted, increases to 26 million trees conditional to support
Improvement in the function of Lebanon’s forests as a sink
Baseline vs. Action
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Gg
CO
2-e
q
NDC reduction
BAU Conditional Unconditional
-10,000.00
-5,000.00
0.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
NDC Unconditional
Unconditional total TARGET Emissions from energy
Emissions from transport Emissions from Ag
Emissions from LULUCF Emissions from waste
2015 NDC Process
Lebanon’s NDC was developed through a multi-ministerial participatory process in 2015, led by the Ministry of Environment
Lebanon's targets have been constructed using existing adopted ministerial strategies and plans, through which, Lebanon's NDC can be achieved in 2030
Participatory and transparent
processSectoral ministries
Cross-sectoral ministries and
institutions
Time constraints
Electricity Policy PaperNREAPNEEAP
Land Transport Policy
FEV NAMA
Solid Waste NAMA
National Water Sector Strategy
MoA StrategyNational
40 Million treesBiodiversity
Strategy
Key Elements of NDC
Implementation
Coordination
- NDC Committee
- Institutional arrangements
- Capacity-building
- Abide by international law
Strategy for NDC Implementation
- Defining and prioritizing policies
- Sectoral implementation
plans Mainstreaming
- NDC into upcoming national
policies
- SDGs, Gender into NDC and NDC
policies
Financial Strategy or Investment Plans for
NDC
- Costing of actions and measures in the
different policies
- Cost-benefit analysis for prioritizationFinance Mobilized to
Support NDC Implementation
- Access to financial resources for
implementation and transparency
Implemented Actions
- Actions that directly contribute to NDC implementation
- Concerns several sectors and cross-cutting elements
(finance)
Transparency to Monitor and Assess
Progress
- NDC progress on targets
- GHG emission trends
- Financial support
- Policies and measures
NDC Update
- Every 5 years- Needs to be
more ambitious
Challenges
The NDC
The opportunity to
plan ahead
Achievement in 2030
Identify sectoral and cross-cutting needs (financial, technical, regulatory, legal, institutional)
Prioritize needs
Draft roadmap for implementation – 2030 Roadmap / Partnership Plan
Build the institutional architecture for gaps and needs
Formulate project proposals to match funding
Formulate investment plans
Climate-proof CEDRE/Capital Investment Plan and Lebanon Economic Vision (McKinsey report) as a precedent
Repeat until achievement ministerial plans to reduce emissions, increase resilience and reach sustainable development
Co
nst
ant
Co
ord
inat
ion
Thank you
Climatechange.moe.gov.lb