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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
IRANPART 3: EARTHQUAKES
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IRAN
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NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN IRAN
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN IRAN
FLOODS
WINDSTORMS
EARTHQUAKES
LANDSLIDES
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES
GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES
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Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric interactions cause EARTHQUAKES
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TECTONIC PLATES
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IRAN: INTERACTION OF ARABIAN —ANATOLIAN---EURASIAN PLATES
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Iran has a long history of destructive earthquakes, which have left at least
126,000 dead during the 20th and 21st centuries.
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A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., earthquakes, cyclones,..) intersect at a point in space and time.
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Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause
extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.
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THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen
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THE REASONS ARE . . .
• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure that are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards will be LOST.
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THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions.
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THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of emergency situations that can occur.
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THE REASONS ARE . . .
• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTH-QUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
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TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
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HAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK
ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISK
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IRAN’S COMMINITIES
IRAN’S COMMINITIES
DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONDATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• HAZARDS• INVENTORY• VULNERABILITY• LOCATION
EARTHQUAKE RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
QUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PREPAREDNESS• PROTECTION• FORECASTS/SCENARIOS• EMERGENCY RESPONSE• RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
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INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
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IRAN: HIGH TO VERY HIGH RISK
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTH-QUAKES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
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WHAT WILL HAPPEN?EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
(AKA THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
WHAT WILL HAPPEN?EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS
(AKA THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
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EARTHQUAKEHAZARDS MODEL
EARTHQUAKEHAZARDS MODEL
SEISMICITYSEISMICITY TECTONICSETTING &
FAULTS
TECTONICSETTING &
FAULTS
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Iran has many well-known seismically active faults, which have generated devastating earthquakes in recent
years, including a M6.6 earthquake in 2003 that destroyed the city of Bam and killed more than 26,000 people
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REGIONAL SEISMICITY
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LOCAL SEISMICITY
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EXPOSUREMODEL
EXPOSUREMODEL
LOCATION OF STRUCTURE
LOCATION OF STRUCTURE
IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF
STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS
IMPORTANCE AND VALUE OF
STRUCTURE AND CONTENTS
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HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN AN EARTHQUAKE
A communities people, property, essential and critical infrastructure, business enterprise, and government centers.
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UNREINFO
RCED MASO
NRY, B
RICK O
R STO
NE
REINFORCED C
ONCRETE WIT
H UNREIN
FORCED WALLS
INTENSITY
REINFORCED CONCRETE WITH REINFORCEDWALLS
STEEL FRAME
ALL METAL & WOOD FRAME
V VI VII VIII IX
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
MEA
N D
AM
AG
E R
ATIO
,
%
O
F R
EPLA
CE
MEN
T V
ALU
E
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO GROUND
SHAKING
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VULNERABILITYMODEL
VULNERABILITYMODEL
QUALITY OF DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION
QUALITY OF DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION
ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM
ADEQUACY OF LATERAL-FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTH-QUAKES BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
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LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL EARTH-QUAKES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
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SOME OF IRAN’S MANY NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES
M6.6 BAM: DECEMBER 26, 2003
M6.4 TABRIZ: AUG. 11, 2012
M6.3 TABRIZ: AUG. 11. 2012
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BAM EARTHQUAKE: DECEMBER 26, 2003
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: BEFORE EARTHQUAKE:
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: BEFORE M6.6 EARTHQUAKE
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: AFTER EARTHQUAKE
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CITADEL OF BAM, IRAN: AFTER EARTHQUAKE
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IMPACTS
• The Bam earthquake was particularly destructive, with 26,271 dead and 30,000 injured.
.
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EXACERBATING FACTORS
• Iran’s earthquake specialists knew that the mud bricks of the citadel, a historical cultural heritage, did NOT comply with earthquake regulations set in 1989, but the mud bricks, a fact of life, could not be adequately strengthened.
.
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EXACERBATING FACTORS
• The high morbidity and mortality tolls were exacerbated by the fragility of the mud brick construction materials.
.
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INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE:
Many nations, including the USA, offered assistance and
resources.
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TWIN MODERATE-MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES STRIKE IRAN
SATURDAY, AUGUST 11, 2012
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LOCATION MAP
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THE EARTHQUAKES (Source: US Geological Survey)
• Saturday's first quake of M6.4 struck just before 5 pm 60 km (37 miles) northeast of the city of Tabriz at a depth of 9.9 km (6.2 miles).
• Saturday’s second quake of M6.3 struck 49 km (30 miles) northeast of Tabriz 11 minutes later at a similar depth.
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The earthquakes struck in East Azerbaijan province, a
mountainous region that neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia to the north and is predominantly
populated by ethnic Azeris, a minority group.
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INITIAL IMPACTS
• Over 1,000 villages were affected, with over 5,000 buildings in 100 villages partially or totally destroyed as concrete-block and mud-brick buildings collapsed.
• At least 20 villages could not be reached because of impassable roads.
• People in some villages were in dire need of food and drinking water.
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VARZAGHAN: DAMAGE
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VARZAGHAN: DAMAGE
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INITIAL IMPACTS
• Over 300 dead (more likely), with over 60 percent being women and children, partly due to the time of day (5 PM) that the quake struck.
• Over 1,800 injured.
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INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)
• 36,000 people in the quake-hit area were provided with emergency shelter.
• Many slept on the street and in parks.• A field hospital set up in Varzaghan on
Sunday to treat the injured was staffed by just two doctors, who, because of shortages of medical supplies and food, were hard pressed to meet the emergency medical needs.
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INITIAL IMPACTS (continued)
• Hospitals in Tabriz (49 km distance) took in many of the injured from the surrounding villages.
• Water, electricity, and phone lines in the Varzaghan area were all down, further hindering rescue efforts
• Preliminary loss estimate: $650 million USD
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VARZAGHAN: INITIAL S & R MOSTLY BY RESIDENTS; AUG 11th
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A CONTROVERSIAL DECISION
Search and rescue was stopped after 24 hours and a 2-day
period of mourning started
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THIS DISASTER EXPOSED POLICY FLAWS
• UN—PROTECTED• UN—PREPARED• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY
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FACT: VILLAGE HOUSES WITH LITTLE OF NO EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE COLLAPSED,
INCREASINGING DEATHS AND INJURIES
The 5 pm occurrence) instead of a 10 pm occurrence) likely reduced the
number of deaths.
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FACT: KNOWING WHERE THE SEISMICALLY ACTIVE FAULTS
ARE AND BEING UNPREPARED FOR THE INEVITABLE
EARTHQUAKES LEADS TO UNNECESSAY DISASTERS
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FACT: EVEN THE WORLD’S BEST FIRST RESPONDERS, FIND THAT
COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, IMPASSABLE ROADS,
AFTERSHOCKS, and NIGHTFALL WILL SLOW SEARCH AND RESCUE
OPERATIONS AND HINDER EMERGENCY RESPONSE
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IRANIAN RED CRESCENT WILLING TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL AID
"We would welcome help by any country," said Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, during his visit to the earthquake-stricken
area on Tuesday, August 14th.
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RED CRESCENT ASSETS DEPLOYED
• 1,100 Red Crescent workers were deployed with 44,000 food packages and 5,600 tents for survivors needing temporary shelter.
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IRAN’S NEXT EARTHQUAKE IS INEVITABLE
IRAN’S NEXT EARTHQUAKE IS INEVITABLE
• BUT, EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE DREAM!