Download - Living standards in Greater Manchester
We do things differently here
Living standards in Greater ManchesterStephen Clarke
November 2016
@stephenlclarke/@resfoundation
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Britain’s major cities underperform
Notes: All cities shown have populations between 1 and 2 millionSource: OECD, Metropolitan database
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DON’T LOOK BACK IN ANGER
Strong economic performance has been followed by
disappointment
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Strong pre-crisis economic growth has unfortunately been followed by poor performance since
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Regional Gross Value Added
Greater Manchester’s
economy performed
strongly before the crisis, but
remains around 3.5 percentage
points below its pre-crisis
peak
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Similarly good employment performance pre-crisis, but the region has fallen behind
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Market Survey
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And earnings were keeping pace with UK before crisis, growing divergence afterwards
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
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As a result living standards are broadly in line with other cities, but below average overall
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Small area income estimates 2011/12
Weekly household
incomes are £76 or 15%
lower in Greater
Manchester than in the
rest of Great Britain
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ISOLATIONFalling inequality between people Rising inequality
between places
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Between 1997 and 2016 pay growth was broadly progressive
Source: RF analysis of ONS, ASHE
… but mainly because it fell faster for those at the top since the crisis
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1997 - 2016
1997 - 2009
2009 - 2016
Average annual change in gross hourly pay (RPIJ-adjusted)
(Poorest) (Richest)
Pay rose by 21% for the lowest-paid
between 1997 and
2007
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Employment rose most for those most likely to be out of work…
Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
The employment
rate for ethnic
minorities rose from
44% to 54%
And from 53% to 61%
for people with low level qualifications
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… most of the improvement came before the crisis
Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
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Geography matters a lot for understanding how much different groups have benefitted
Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force SurveyNotes: Each diamond represents a local authority in Greater Manchester
Employment rate:
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Geography matters a lot for understanding how much different groups have benefitted
Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force SurveyNotes: Each diamond represents a local authority in Greater Manchester
Employment rate:
Low qualified 43% in
Manchester69% in Stockport
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Geography matters a lot for understanding how much different groups have benefitted
Sources: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force SurveyNotes: Each diamond represents a local authority in Greater Manchester
Employment rate:
Low qualified 43% in
Manchester69% in Stockport
Younger people53% in Rochdale72% in Stockport
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Despite inequalities between people falling, they were rising in one respect - housing
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
Greater Manchester
has seen the biggest fall in
homeownership of any city
region - down 15
percentage points since
2003
This has most affected younger
people
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Some areas saw strong enough growth in the 200os to outweigh hit from crisis
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Small area income estimates 2004/05 & 2011/12
Between 2004/05
and 2011/12
Overall incomes fell
by 3% across Greater
Manchester
though income
growth ranged from 5% to
35% in parts of the regional
centre.
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Strong population growth has taken place in fast growing areas
Source: Transport for Greater Manchester
There was significant
population growth in the regional
centre between 2001 – 2011…
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Strong population growth has taken place in fast growing areas
Source: Transport for Greater Manchester
There was significant
population growth in the regional
centre between 2001 –
2011…
And in the regional centre
this corresponded broadly with
income growth
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PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE LET ME
GET WHAT I WANTProductivity, geographic inequality and housing
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Three key challenges
Productivity: • Output per hour worked in GM is
£26.60 compared to £30 in the rest of the country.
• 1 in 5 workers will be paid the minimum wage in 2020.
• Raising productivity in high-employment low paying sectors is vital, as is providing opportunities for high-skilled workers.
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Three key challenges
Geographic inequality: • Household incomes in the richest
neighbourhoods in GM are 1.8 times those in the poorest, and this is up from 1.6 in 2007.
• GM is the most unequal region in terms of employment rates.
• Devolution of transport, employment and skills powers provide opportunities to help people as well as places.
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Three key challenges
Housing: • Housing costs rose 26% in GM
between 2004 and 2012 while incomes fell by 5%.
• Homeownership has fallen by 15 percentage points since 2003.
• The Greater Manchester Spatial Framework provides an opportunity to set clear goals around housebuilding.