R E S E A R C H
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANYPROPERTY REPORT 2020
Real Estate for a changing world
CONTENTS LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020
Executive summary ...................................................................................................................................... 3
Logistics regions in Germany ..................................................................................................................... 4
Overview of the German logistics markets ............................................................................................ 5
Logistics investment .................................................................................................................................... 8
Berlin................................................................................................................................................................ 10
Cologne ............................................................................................................................................................ 12
Düsseldorf ....................................................................................................................................................... 14
Frankfurt ......................................................................................................................................................... 16
Hamburg ......................................................................................................................................................... 18
Leipzig .............................................................................................................................................................. 20
Munich ............................................................................................................................................................. 22
Ruhr region ..................................................................................................................................................... 24
Stuttgart .......................................................................................................................................................... 26
Publisher and copyright: BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH Prepared by: BNP Paribas Real Estate Consult GmbH Realisation: KD1 design agency, Cologne
Cover: BNP Paribas Real Estate Status: January 2020
All rights reserved. This Property Report is protected in its entirety by copyright. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, transmitted or stored in a retrieval system in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH. The statements, notifications and forecasts provided here correspond to our estimations at the time when this report was prepared and can change without notice. The data come from various sources which we consider reliable but whose validity, correctness or exactness we cannot guarantee. Explicitly, this report does not represent a recommendation of any kind, nor should it be regarded as forming a basis for making any decisions regarding investment or letting or renting property or premises. BNP Paribas Real Estate can accept no liability whatsoever for any information contained or statements made herein.
CONTENTS
IMPRINT
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Second-best result of all time for the German logistics market
▸ Following a first quarter which suggested a rather average year was in the making for the German market for storage and logistics space, the take-up figures picked up appreciably at mid-term. The year closed with the second-best result of all time, a total take-up volume of 6.9 million m² falling barely 7 % short of the record result from 2018.
▸ The major logistics hubs (Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig, Munich, Stuttgart) reported sharp drops as a whole, with total take-up of 2.3 million m² down by some 20 % on the previous year. This represents the weakest result of the past six years. A key contributory factor here was high land prices, which are making it increasingly difficult to market property developments at acceptable rent levels. Increases in take-up were reported only by Munich (419,000 m²; +72 %) – whereby this result was primarily attributable to a single mega-deal comprising over 230,000 m² – and Berlin (501,000 m²; +16.5 %).
▸ The main beneficiaries of the shortage of space in the major logistics hubs are the locations outside of the large conurbations. A new all-time-high take-up volume of 4.6 million m² was reported here. This was 2 % up on the record established in 2018.
Industrial companies top the rankings
▸ Despite uncertainties regarding the underlying economic situation, industrial companies head the sectoral breakdown on just under 41 %.
▸ Wholesale/retail companies also generated substantial demand, taking second place on a good 29 % ahead of the unusually weak logistics firms (25 %).
Marked rent rises in some locations
▸ Rents have risen in many locations as a result of the generally strained supply and demand situation, increased land prices and, above all, higher construction costs.
▸ The sharpest increase was reported in Düsseldorf, which witnessed a 6.5 % hike up to 5.75 €/m². The prime rents have also risen appreciably in Cologne (5.40 €/m²; +6 %), Hamburg (6.30 €/m²; +5 %), Frankfurt (6.60 €/m²; +5 %) and Stuttgart (7 €/m²; +4.5 %).
▸ With regard to the average rent, Berlin reported the largest increase, with a rise of 7 %.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
LOGISTICS REGIONS IN GERMANY
BERLIN/
France
Belgium
Poland
Austria
Switzerland
Czech
Netherlands
Denmark
HAMBURG
MUNICH
COLOGNE
FRANKFURT AMMAIN
DÜSSELDORF
STUTTGART
LEIPZIG
Bremen
Hannover/
Nuremberg
Münster/
Mannheim
Augsburg
Karlsruhe
Braunschweig
Gera/Zwickau/Erfurt
KasselRUHR REGION
Osnabrück
Ulm
Koblenz
i
a
LuxembourgRepublic
BRANDENBURG
Chemnitz
Important logistics markets
Otherlogistics regions
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LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 OVERVIEW
A CHALLENGING SETTING FOR THE LOGISTICS SECTORAfter peaking at over 113 points at the beginning of 2018, the ifo logistics indicator went into continual decline, drop-ping below the 100 points mark in July 2019. The sub-indicator for business expectations was hit particularly severely, showing only 90 points in September. This reflects the uncertainty about the further development of German industry and the global economy. The indicator rallied slightly for the first time in December 2019, but remains low, at 97.2. This presents a challenging setting for the lo-gistics sector. With the signing of the first phase of a pact between the USA and China, certainty about Brexit and a somewhat brightening economy, there are realistic prospects that the situation has now bottomed out.
SECOND-BEST RESULT EVER, NONETHELESSDespite this backdrop, the second-best result of all time was reported, with take-up of 6.9 million m² falling barely 7 % short of the previous year’s record. The ten-year aver-age was outstripped by a good 17 %. Following a somewhat restrained start to the year, the second and third quarters yielded above-average results. While take-up in the final quarter was down on the two exceptionally good preceding years, a total of 1.6 million m² was nevertheless well up on the multi-year average. The fact that a very good result was achievable despite the challenging underlying conditions is attributable not least of all to ongoing restructuring pro-cesses. These cover the still-growing e-commerce sector, for example, as well as space required by the automotive sector for expansion in the field of e-mobility.
STRONG DEMAND FROM INDUSTRYA notable development is that industrial companies clearly lead the sectoral breakdown with a share of almost 41 %, although they were most seriously affected by the faltering economy. This shows that the outlined restructuring pro-cesses are triggering substantial demand for space. Mean-while, logistics firms take a markedly smaller share than usual, at just 25 %. This is attributable above all to uncer-tainty about the further development of global disrupting factors. In contrast, wholesale / retail companies generated substantial demand, taking second place with a good 29 % share of total take-up and topping the 2 million m² mark again for the first time in three years.
THE GERMAN LOGISTICS MARKETS AT A GLANCE
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150
125
100
75
50
LOGISTICS INDICATOR GERMANY
Climate Situation Expectations Source: BVL/ifo
20192013 2014 2015 2017 20182016
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN GERMANY
in m2 Average 5,870,000 m²
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TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN GERMANY
in %
Logistics firms
Manufacturing
Wholesale/retail
Others
24.7
5.6
40.6
29.1
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
6,49
3,00
0
2017
5,98
5,00
0
2015
6,84
5,00
0
2016
6,89
4,00
0
2019
5,84
2,00
0
2011
5,08
7,00
0
2012
5,19
5,00
0
2014
4,34
5,00
0
2010
4,63
8,00
0
2013 2018
7,37
9,00
0
NEW BUILDS CLAIM TWO-THIRDS SHAREAlthough the supply bottleneck has eased in comparison to the preceding years in some locations, large units of modern space which are available at short notice remain a scarce commodity in many instances, in view of which new developments are crucial in order to meet the prevailing demand. This is also reflected in the further increase in the share of newly completed space, which accounts for a good two thirds of total take-up and is just short of the all-time high from 2016.
SHARP DROPS IN LOGISTICS HUBSThe major logistics hubs (Berlin, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Leipzig, Munich, Stuttgart) report sharp drops as a whole, with total take-up of 2.3 million m² down by some 20 % on the previous year. This represents the weakest result of the past six years. A key contributory fac-tor here is high land prices, which are making it increas-ingly difficult to market property developments at accept-able rent levels. As a result, even more users are resorting to locations outside of the large agglomerations. Increas-es in take-up are reported only by Munich (419,000 m²; +72 %) – whereby this result was primarily attributable to a mega-deal comprising over 230,000 m² for KraussMaffei – and Berlin (501,000 m²; +17 %). Declining take-up was to be observed in Leipzig (164,000 m²; -57 %), Düsseldorf (157,000 m²; -44 %), Frankfurt (417,000 m²; -38 %), Cologne (140,000 m²; -38 %), Hamburg (373,000 m²; -23 %) and Stutt-gart (153,000 m²; -17 %).
NEW RECORD OUTSIDE OF MAJOR LOCATIONSIn contrast to the major conurbations (see above), the other regions saw a slight rise in take-up to 4.6 million m² (+2 %), thereby topping the record-breaking performance of 2018. While the Ruhr region, as one of the most impor-tant logistics areas in Germany, incurred a drop of 6 % to 493,000 m², this nevertheless represented the second-best result ever recorded. The 12 leading logistics regions, which BNP Paribas Real Estate additionally analyses on a regular basis, amassed 1.7 million m², which marks a good 4 % in-crease and also sets a new record. A similar picture applies throughout the rest of Germany, where take-up totalled just under 2.4 million m². This result also represents a new all-time high.
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP BY REGIONS
2018 (m²)
2019 (m²)
Change (%)
Important logistics markets
Berlin 430,000 501,000 16.5%
Cologne 225,000 140,000 -37.8%
Düsseldorf 280,000 157,000 -43.9%
Frankfurt 675,000 417,000 -38.2%
Hamburg 483,000 373,000 -22.8%
Leipzig 383,000 164,000 -57.2%
Munich 243,000 419,000 72.4%
Stuttgart 184,000 153,000 -16.8%
Subtotal 2,903,000 2,324,000 -19.9 %
Other locations*
Ruhr region 524,000 493,000 -5.9 %
Other logistics regions (see map) 1,648,000 1,719,000 4.3 %
Rest of Germany 2,304,000 2,358,000 2.3 %
Subtotal 4,476,000 4,570,000 2.1 %
Total Germany 7,379,000 6,894,000 -6.6 %
* Deals ≥ 5,000 m² © BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE LOGISTICS MARKET IN GERMANY
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Take-up 7,379,000 m² 6,894,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 37.8 % 43.1 %
– Share of new buildings 62.2 % 67.6 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
6 | 7
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 OVERVIEW
RISING RENTS2019 saw a continuation of the rising trend for rents which has been observable for some time now. This trend is a manifestation of the general supply and demand situation, as well as increased land prices and above all higher con-struction costs. The prime rent has risen in more than half of the major logistics locations, with the sharpest increase reported in Düsseldorf, which witnessed a 6.5 % hike up to 5.75 €/m². The prime rents have also risen appreciably in Cologne (5.40 €/m²; +6 %), Hamburg (6.30 €/m²; +5 %), Frankfurt (6.60 €/m²; +5 %) and Stuttgart (7 €/m²; +4.5 %). A similar trend is to be observed for average rents, which have risen at almost all major logistics hubs. Berlin (5.90 €/m²; +7 %) reported the sharpest rise here, followed by the Ruhr region (4.10 €/m²; +5 %) and Frankfurt (5.10 €/m²; +3 %).
OUTLOOKThe further development of the German markets for logis-tics and storage space will hinge not least of all on how quickly the economy as a whole gathers pace. On the posi-tive side, the easing of the trade dispute between the USA and China and greater clarity on the implementation of Brexit should go some way to reducing uncertainty among companies as they consider further investments. Many restructuring processes will also continue, generating ad-ditional need for space. Against this backdrop, in 2020 de-mand is expected to be strong once again by reference to the multi-year average, generating correspondingly high levels of take-up. As things stand, there is every indica-tion that a result in excess of 6 million m² and thus above the multi-year average is attainable. It remains to be seen whether it will continue in the direction of 7 million m² as in recent years, however. The problem of an inadequate supply of suitable sites will persist in the conurbations, making it difficult for a number of logistics hubs to raise their take-up to any substantial degree. Rents also harbour certain upward potential at some locations.
TOP RENTS IN IMPORTANT LOGISTICS MARKETS
in € / m²
1.00 2.00 4.00 7.003.00 5.00 6.00
Berlin Munich Stuttgart Frankfurt Hamburg Düsseldorf Cologne Leipzig
0.00
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MAJOR CONTRACTS IN GERMANY
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q3 Vaterstetten KraussMaffei 230,000
Q2 Dingolfing BMW 100,000
Q3 Oberhausen EDEKA 90,000
Q3 Lich Wayfair 89,000
Q1 Kösching Car manufacturer 87,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
7.20
5.75
6.60
6.30
5.40
4.50
7.00
7.00
8.00
LOGISTICS INVESTMENT
SECOND-BEST RESULT OF ALL TIMEThe year-end result reported by the market for logistics in-vestments in 2019 is extraordinary on a number of counts. While 18 % short of 2017’s exceptional result, a transac-tion volume of €7.5 billion was up by 4.5 % on the previous year’s already strong performance and represents the sec-ond-best result of all time. Whereas major pan-European logistics platforms were the prime generators of turnover in the record-breaking year, single transactions made a particularly prominent contribution to the excellent result in 2019. They account for a hefty €4.7 billion, which alone would have been sufficient to achieve the third-best result ever – an absolute record performance.
HIGH SHARE OF LARGE-VOLUME SINGLE DEALSThe breakdown of investments by size category reveals how single transactions have gained in significance – though perhaps in a different way to what might have been ex-pected. Despite a marked increase in the number of trans-actions in the small-volume range up to €25 million, the shares amassed by these size categories grew only mar-ginally. This is explainable by the fact that 2019 witnessed not only an unusually large number of single transactions, but also an accumulation of exceptionally large deals of this type. The more than two dozen single deals in the segments over €50 million alone provide for turnover of almost €2.4 billion.
MAJORITY OF CAPITAL DERIVES FROM GERMANYThe diversified breakdown of take-up by buyer groups clear-ly shows that logistics investments are now anything but a niche product. Special-purpose funds remain the undis-puted leaders, accounting for a good 23 % share, followed by investment / asset managers (just under 14 %) and list-ed real estate companies / REITs (12 %). The strong results reported for corporates (11 %) and property developers (a good 10 %) are directly linked to the high share of individual transactions. The same applies to the breakdown of take-up by origin of buyer. The majority of capital (51 %) currently originates from Germany, which is noteworthy with regard to the very good overall result. The similarly outstanding results of the two preceding years were largely attribut-able to large portfolio transactions, which are particularly popular among non-European buyers. It thus comes as no surprise that investors from North America (10 %) and the Middle East (1 %) lost ground, while investors from Ger-many and other European countries increased their share (16 %). Asian buyers nevertheless show a strong result with
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LOGISTICS INVESTMENTS IN GERMANY
Single investments in €m Portfolio investments in €m
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
LOGISTICS INVESTMENTS BY € CATEGORY
2018 in %, total €7,202 m
2019 in %, total €7,527 m
100
80
60
40
20
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≥€100 m
€50-<100 m
€25-<50 m
€10-<25 m
<€10 m
LOGISTICS INVESTMENTS BY BUYER CATEGORY
in %, foreign investment share 48.7 %
Special-purpose funds
Investment/asset managers
Listed real estate companies / REITs
Corporates
Property developers
Sovereign funds
Pension funds
Equity/real estate funds
Open-ended funds
Property firms
Family offices
Other investors
0 15 25
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105 20
16.6
16.7
10.4
7.3
49.0
2018
2019
2,79
0
2018
2,95
6
2015 2016 201720102011 2012 20142010 2013
879
361
1,01
615
0
1,32
742
6
1,62
31,
134
2,23
51,
998 2,47
32,
175 2,61
11,
825
6,22
4
3,19
34,
009
21.9
13.5
13.0
7.7
43.9
2019
4,73
7
23.4
13.6
12.0
11.0
10.2
7.6
6.4
5.5
2.8
2.4
2.0
3.1
8 | 9
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2019 LOGISTICS INVESTMENT
a share of just under 22 %, as they were responsible for a number of large-volume single transactions.
MIXED PICTURE IN THE CONURBATIONSAt just above €1.8 billion, the transaction volume report-ed by the major conurbations is only slightly down on the previous year (-6 %). A detailed look at turnover in the indi-vidual markets reveals a very mixed picture, however. While Frankfurt (€465 million) and Leipzig (€140 million) set new records and Munich surpassed the previous year’s already excellent result by a hefty 30 %, other cities lost substantial ground. Cases in point here are Hamburg (-68 %), Düssel-dorf (-50 %) and Stuttgart (-49 %), whose results also fell well short of the five-year average. While Berlin also re-ported a sharp drop in turnover (-28 %), this is primarily accountable to the previous year’s outstanding result. On closer inspection, the current total of €322 million actually emerges as the second-best result of the past ten years.
MARKED RISE IN PRICESAs a result of the sustained run on logistics investments, yield compression also continued unabated in 2019. Mid-year saw the prime yield drop below the 4 % mark for the first time in the key conurbations (Berlin, Cologne, Düssel-dorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich and Stuttgart), and prices continued to soar up to the end of the year. The yields here currently stand at 3.70 %. Even in Leipzig, where prices are generally somewhat lower, the 4 % threshold is now looming. The net prime yield here fell by a further 45 basis points over the past twelve months, to 4.05 %.
OUTLOOKThe fact that the market for logistics investments once again reported an excellent annual result, despite the in-creasingly tight supply situation in the area of the large core portfolios, is a clear indication of an ever-broadening demand base. 2020 is also set to be a strong investment year, not least of all because logistics properties still have the edge over other asset classes in terms of yields, despite the markedly increased prices. Given the inadequate supply of large portfolios, it will primarily be large-volume single transactions that determine whether the €7 billion mark is topped for the fourth time in succession. As things stand, the possibility of a slight drop in yields cannot be ruled out in isolated instances.
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LOGISTICS INVESTMENTS IN IMPORTANT LOGISTICS MARKETS
2018 in €m, total €1,949 m
2019 in €m, total €1,840 m
500
400
300
200
100
Berlin StuttgartMunich
322
121
445
444
238
Düsseldorf
144
290
Cologne
107
97
Leipzig
140
26
Hamburg
9529
6
342
Frankfurt
465
216
8.0 %
7.0 %
6.0 %
5.0 %
4.0 %
DEVELOPMENT OF NET PRIME YIELDS
Berlin Cologne Düsseldorf Frankfurt
Hamburg Leipzig Munich Stuttgart
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20192011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20172010 20182016
LOGISTICS INVESTMENTS BY ORIGIN OF CAPITAL
in %
16.1
9.9
21.8
51.3
Germany
Asia
Europe
North America
Middle East
Others
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
0.7 0.2
BERLIN
TAKE-UP HITS A NEW ALL-TIME HIGHIn keeping with the office and investment markets, Berlin’s market for logistics and storage space also reported a new all-time high in 2019, even breaching the half a million threshold for the first time, with take-up of 501,000 m². This was 16.5 % up on the previous year’s strong result, and surpassed the ten-year average by as much as 24 %. The 400,000 m² mark was thus exceeded for the third time in succession, continuing an impressive series and putting Berlin in first place among all major German locations. De-mand was concentrated on the one hand on locations as close as possible to the inner city, with proximity to custom-ers and an attractive labour pool representing the decisive criteria here. Another focus was the area surrounding Berlin to the south, where an adequate supply of modern space is available at short notice. Key deals included leases taken out by an e-commerce company in Kiekebusch (31,000 m²), by Kühne + Nagel in Oberkrämer (20,000 m²) and by Micro-vast in Ludwigsfelde (just under 16,000 m²).
RELATIVELY EVEN SECTORAL SPREADFor some years now, the demand situation has been shaped by the positive course of development for wholesale / retail companies. Their performance was par for the course once again in 2019, ranking first in the sectoral breakdown with a good 40 % share. They were unable to repeat the extraor-dinary result from 2018, however, when they contributed more than half to the total take-up. Logistics firms take second place, with a share of around one quarter almost 8 percentage points down on the multi-year average. Manu-facturing companies round off the leading trio, making a strong recovery from a poor showing in 2018 to claim a good 21 % share.
STRONG DEMAND IN ALL SIZE CATEGORIES A welcome aspect is the fact that the record take-up does not derive from a small number of major deals, but is rather generated by a very broad demand base. Contracts for over 20,000 m² contribute only a good 6 % to the result. Meanwhile, the smallest category up to 3,000 m² has again demonstrated how important it is to the Berlin market, with a share of just under 27 %. A major portion of this demand is focused on central locations offering corresponding proxim-ity to customers. All the remaining market segments make roughly the same contribution to the overall result, with shares in the range from 15 to 19 % of the total take-up.
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN BERLIN
in %
17.814.9
15.6
18.826.7
6.2
≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN BERLIN
in m² Average 405,000 m²
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN BERLIN
in %
Wholesale / retail
Logistics firms
Manufacturing
Construction / crafts
Others
25.2
40.4
20.7
12.0
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
2019
501,
000
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20152010 2011 201420132012
407,
000
434,
000
340,
000
340,
000
310,
000
470,
000
2016
385,
000
2018
435,
000
430,
000
2017
1.7
10 | 11
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 BERLIN
OWNER-OCCUPIER SHARE LOWThe traditionally low owner-occupier share in Berlin re-mained true to form in 2019. Contributing only 9 % to total take-up, it was once again markedly below the multi-year average (15 %). This is attributable in part to the supply of modern premises available at short notice, which is higher than in other locations. The continuing high demand for central locations close to the inner city has maintained the pressure on rents in this market segment. This is par-ticularly apparent in districts along the route of the urban motorway, such as Charlottenburg, Tempelhof or Neukölln, where the supply falls short of demand. As a consequence, the average rent has risen by 7 % to a current level of 5.90 €/m². The prime rent remains very high, at 7.20 €/m².
OUTLOOKAs things stand, there is every indication that 2020 will once again yield an above-average result. Apart from improved prospects for the economy as a whole and a continuing dy-namic trend for the German capital, specific developments such as Tesla’s decision to build a mega-factory in Grün-heide should also have a positive impact and generate ad-ditional demand. Against this backdrop, a further welcome aspect is that the supply side should be boosted somewhat by development projects. Rents appear set to stabilise, at least in the first half of the year.
MAJOR CONTRACTS IN BERLIN
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q1 Kiekebusch E-commerce company 31,000
Q2 Oberkrämer Kühne + Nagel 20,000
Q4 Ludwigsfelde Microvast 15,700
Q2 Ludwigsfelde kfzteile 24 13,300
Q2 Kremmen Automotive company 13,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE BERLIN LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 7.20 € / m² 7.20 €/m²
Average rent 5.50 € / m² 5.90 €/m²
Take-up 430,000 m² 501,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 22.1 % 8.7 %
– Share of new buildings 50.9 % 47.7 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
BERLIN
PotsdamBrandenburgan der Havel
Oranienburg
Falkensee
Eberswalde
Bernau beiBerlin
Königs Wusterhausen
Strausberg
HennigsdorfRathenow
Ludwigsfelde
Werder (Havel)
Kleinmachnow
Zossen
Neuenhagenbei Berlin
NauenAhrensfelde
Schönefeld
Beelitz
Michendorf
Trebbin
Fehrbellin
Kremmen Biesenthal
Brück
Ketzin/Havel
Scharmützelsee
Havel
Schwielowsee
BRANDENBURG
9
2
2
24
12
13
11
115
10 10
10
10
Havel
Hav
el
Spr
SpreeOder-Spree-Kanal
1
2
Schönefeld
Charlottenburgmotorwayinterchange
Core area
Periphery
Outer periphery
1
2
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LACK OF SPACE CURBS TAKE-UPThe long-established problem of a far too inadequate sup-ply on the Cologne market for logistics and storage space left its mark once again in 2019. Take-up totalling only 140,000 m² falls almost 38 % short of the previous year’s result and is around 30 % below the ten-year average. A primary reason for this low level is the fact that not a single deal was reported over 20,000 m², owing above all to the lack of space available at short notice as well as suitable sites for new properties. The absence of any large contracts alone accounts for a good two thirds of the decline in take-up. The most significant deals included lets to a logistics firm in Kerpen and to Kurt Rothschild GmbH & Co. KG in Bedburg, in each case comprising some 17,000 m².
LOGISTICS FIRMS CLAIM ALMOST 50 % SHAREAs in 2018, logistics firms again accounted for almost half (48 %) of the total take-up and continue to dominate the market. Manufacturing companies maintained their relative share, contributing a good quarter to the result. In contrast, wholesale / retail companies nosedived, with a share of 6 % representing their weakest result of the past ten years. The shortage of space is revealed particularly starkly here: Wholesale and retail companies generally need space at short notice in order to increase their storage and distri-bution capacities, and such space is virtually non-existent. At the same time, their demand is increasingly focused on comparatively central locations offering proximity to their customers. The competition with other usages is particular-ly keen in these locations, however – especially with office developments, for which suitable sites are also desperately scarce in Cologne.
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED PROPERTIES IN DEMANDWith no large deals over 20,000 m² reported, mid-range contracts between 8,000 and 20,000 m² have taken over the lead, contributing just under 57 % to the overall result. This is well above their multi-year average, which stands at around one third. Smaller deals up to 5,000 m² also rep-resent a mainstay of the market once again. Their share of 38 % is roughly in keeping with their customary level. The fact that the small-volume segment also reported a rela-tively moderate result in absolute terms shows that it is also affected by the supply bottleneck, however.
COLOGNELIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN COLOGNE
in m² Average 199,000 m²
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
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TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN COLOGNE
in %
24.3
32.44.9
23.4
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
15.0
TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN COLOGNE
in %
Logistics firms
Manufacturing
Wholesale/retail
Construction / crafts
Others
48.3
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
27.0
5.8
3.0
15.9
2019
140,
000
2015 20162010 2011 2012 20142013
192,
000 23
7,00
0
118,
000
145,
000
305,
000
167,
000 21
0,00
0
2017
250,
000
2018
225,
000
12 | 13
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 COLOGNE
RENTS ON THE RISEThe rent trends reflect the competition for the scant space available. The prime rent is up by 6 % year-on-year, at 5.40 €/m², and the average rent has also risen by a good 2 %, to 4.45 €/m². With regard to structural aspects of the market, it is also to be noted that the owner-occupier share, which is traditionally low in Cologne, has fallen once again and now stands at only a good 6 %. Meanwhile, newly built space has gained significant ground, accounting for almost 57 % of the overall result. This is also symptomatic of the shortage of space, which forces many users to resort to new developments.
OUTLOOK The Cologne market for logistics and storage space is likely to face the same structural backdrop in 2020. At present, there is no sign of any significant increase in the supply of space. This means that it will once again prove impos-sible to meet a certain portion of the prevailing demand. As such, a take-up result in line with the multi-year average (200,000 m²) would count as a success. A substantially bet-ter result would only appear possible if a number of large-scale developments were to be started after all. A degree of upward potential is discernible for rents on account of the underlying supply / demand ratio.
MAJOR CONTRACTS IN COLOGNE
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q3 Kerpen Logistics firm 17,000
Q4 Bedburg Kurt Rothschild 17,000
Q4 Pulheim Food manufacturer 10,000
Q4 Pulheim DHL 10,000
Q3 Kerpen Saint-Gobain-Gruppe 9,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE COLOGNE LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 5.10 €/m² 5.40 €/m²
Average rent 4.35 €/m² 4.45 €/m²
Take-up 225,000 m² 140,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 10.6 % 6.2 %
– Share of new buildings 13.1 % 56.9 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
Bonn
Leverkusen
Bergisch Gladbach
DürenTroisdorf
Rommerskirchen
KerpenHürth
Bergheim
Pulheim
Frechen
Brühl
Niederkassel
Monheimam Rhein
Wesseling
Rösrath
Bedburg
Opladen
Sindorf
Odenthal
Lechenich
Große Dhünntalsperre
3
3611
565
361
57
4COLOGNE
4
4
4
555
1
1
59
61
553
46
44
59
Swist
Rh
ein
Rhein
W
uppe
r
Rur
Rur
Erft
Erft
Erft
SiegSieg
Bröl
Agger
Agge
r
1
2
Eifeltorcontainer terminal
Cologne/Bonn airport
Core area
Periphery
Outer periphery
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DÜSSELDORF
SHORTAGE OF SPACE LIMITING TAKE-UPThe market for storage and logistics space in Düsseldorf (including the surrounding area) fell short of the preceding years’ very good performance in 2019, reporting the worst result of the past ten years, with take-up at 157,000 m². Following the below-average take-up in the first three quarters of 2019, the market also failed to rally in the tra-ditionally more lively final quarter. Take-up for the year was thus 44 % down on the previous year’s level. The demand side is actually no weaker than in the preceding years, however. While many companies are still on the lookout for new or larger premises, they commonly fail to find suitable properties on account of the strained supply situation. Any-one seeking larger or modern premises faces the likelihood of a long wait before they find suitable properties.
UNUSUAL SECTORAL SPREADThe breakdown of take-up by sectors is highly unusual and can be seen as an indication of the sparse supply. Logistics firms, for example, which tend to generate high levels of demand and have frequently signed large-volume contracts in the past, contributed only one fifth to total take-up. This share, which is also low by reference to the multi-year av-erage, comes as no surprise in view of the number of con-tracts – almost four times as many of which were signed in 2018 compared to 2019. Wholesale / retail companies led the ranking at the end of 2019, contributing a share of over 39 %. This figure includes the year’s biggest deal: the construction of premises comprising 30,000 m² of space for online bathroom equipment and furnishings retailer Reuter in Mönchengladbach. The largest number of contracts in absolute terms was concluded by the manufacturing sec-tor, however, which also claimed a significant share, at just under 32 %.
FEW MAJOR DEALSThe fact that the size category over 20,000 m², which nor-mally generates the highest level of take-up, contributed only 19 % to the overall result indicates that the lack of major deals in particular was accountable to the short sup-ply. This share is some 10 per-centage points down on its multi-year average. Meanwhile, smaller storage units up to 3,000 m² claim a share of 26 %. In so doing, they not only head the breakdown of market segments but have also almost doubled their absolute take-up volume. This can be interpreted as clear evidence that demand remains buoyant and that the weak result is rather attributable to structural aspects of the supply and demand situation.
TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN DÜSSELDORF
in %
Wholesale / retail
Manufacturing
Logistics firms
Construction / crafts
Others
39.1
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
31.6
20.8
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN DÜSSELDORF
in %
9.9
26.4 ≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
10.014.0
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN DÜSSELDORF
in m² Average 285,000 m²
500,000
400,000
300,000
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100,000
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157,
000
19.2
0.4
2016 20172010 2011 2012 2013 20152014
167,
000
278,
000
234,
000
395,
000
267,
000 34
1,00
0
280,
000
2018
452,
000
280,
000
8.1
20.5
14 | 15
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 DÜSSELDORF
HIGH OWNER-OCCUPIER SHAREThe shortage of space in the segment impacts particularly severely on logistics firms, which commonly require large units of space at short notice. This assessment is borne out by the fact that letting accounts for only just under two thirds of total take-up – as compared to a long-term aver-age of 78 %. Owner-occupiers, who are able to plan ahead on a longer-term basis, contribute over 36 % to the overall result. The prime rent in the core area has risen by 6.5 % to 5.75 €/m² and the average rent has increased slightly by 2 % to 5 €/m².
OUTLOOK A slight easing of the supply situation currently appears to be on the cards for 2020. In conjunction with an expected rallying of the economy as a whole, there is every indica-tion that the current year will deliver a better result than 2019, and take up above the 200,000 m² mark appears quite possible. There is no sign of a substantially higher result in the region of the record take-up of the past, however. With regard to rents, sideways movement at the current levels presently appears the most probable scenario.
MAJOR CONTRACTS IN DÜSSELDORF
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q1 Mönchengladbach Reuter 30,000
Q4 Mönchengladbach Logistics service provider 18,000
Q2 Grevenbroich Essertec 14,100
Q2 Düsseldorf ABC-Logistik 11,600
Q3 Neuss Teekanne 10,200
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE DÜSSELDORF LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 5.40 € / m² 5.75 €/m²
Average rent 4.90 € / m² 5.00 €/m²
Take-up 280,000 m² 157,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 17.0 % 36.1 %
– Share of new buildings 48.4 % 59.9 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
DÜSSELDORF
Wuppertal
Mönchengladbach
Krefeld
Solingen
Leverkusen
Neuss
Ratingen
Velbert
Grevenbroich Dormagen
MeerbuschWillichMettmann
Große Dhünntalsperre
44
3
3
46
46
5240
61
57
57
43
1
1
59
46
59
52
52
44
44
Rhein
Rhei
n
Niers
Wupper
Erft
1 Düsseldorf airport
Core area
Periphery
Outer periphery
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FRANKFURT
MARKED DECLINE IN TAKE-UPThe more restrained demand which emerged in the third quarter on Frankfurt’s market for logistics and storage space continued in the final three months of the year. As a consequence, the annual take-up of 417,000 m² was 38 % down on the previous year’s result. This represents the lowest level of the past nine years, due first and foremost to a very weak end to the year. Take-up in the final three months totalled only 53,000 m². In the nationwide rank-ings, the Frankfurt market thus cedes the leading position which it held in the two previous years to Berlin and is level with Munich in third place. The most important transac-tions include Ikea’s owner-occupier deal (33,000 m²) at the former Opel factory site in Rüsselsheim, a lease agree-ment taken out by a logistics firm for a good 31,000 m² in Rodenbach and two other lets, each for around 20,000 m², in Gernsheim and Bodenheim.
POOR RESULT FOR LOGISTICS FIRMSThe drop in take-up compared to 2018 is largely attribut-able to a very weak result for logistics firms, which tradi-tionally play a very important role in Frankfurt. While just managing to hold on to the lead with a share of 30 %, they are nevertheless responsible for a good 90 % of the overall decline and reported the lowest level of the past ten years. Key contributory factors here are, firstly, that the dispro-portionately high number of large-volume deals which they have concluded in recent years cannot be repeated every year, while secondly the subdued state of the economy as a whole tends to curb expansionary drive in the export sector in particular. Wholesale / retail companies follow up in sec-ond place on 28 %, just ahead of manufacturing companies on a good 26 %.
FEW MAJOR DEALSAs a result of the reduced demand from logistics firms, major deals in excess of 20,000 m² contribute less to total take-up than in the preceding years, in both relative (25 %) and absolute (105,000 m²) terms. Meanwhile, the small-volume segment up to 3,000 m² was comparatively stable, contributing 18 % to the overall result. While the mid-range size categories gained ground in relative terms, in absolute terms they also reported lower take-up for the most part. The category from 8,000 to 12,000 m² forms an exception here, with a share of 17 % representing a good result also in relation to the multi-year average.
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN FRANKFURT
in %
17.0
9.6
10.4
25.3
19.7
18.0 ≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN FRANKFURT
in m² Average 499,000 m²
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
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TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN FRANKFURT
in %
30.3
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
27.7
26.1
14.91.0
2019
417,
000
2011 20152014 2016 20172012 20132010
320,
000
432,
000
470,
000
445,
000
463,
000
673,
000
599,
000
498,
000
2018
675,
000
Logistics firms
Wholesale/retail
Manufacturing
Construction / crafts
Others
16 | 17
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 FRANKFURT
SLIGHT EASING OF THE SUPPLY SITUATIONFollowing a supply bottleneck which has dogged the Frank-furt logistics market in recent years, the situation has now eased somewhat. This is attributable to an increase in available space as a result of a number of property developments in several locations within the market terri-tory and also to the current reduced level of demand from logistics firms. Rents have nevertheless risen, not least of all as a result of higher construction costs and land prices. The prime rent thus increased by 5 % over the previous year’s result to 6.60 €/m² and the average rent also fol-lowed this trend, rising to 5.10 €/m² (+3 %).
OUTLOOKThe prospects for 2020 will crucially hinge on whether and how quickly the economy as a whole rallies. A stable macro- economic setting and a positive export trend as a mainstay of demand are particularly important to logistics firms. As things stand, there is every indication that take-up will be higher than in 2019. The increase is likely to be moderate, however, in view of which a result on a par with the multi-year average (500,000 m²) would count as a suc-cess. The supply of space will probably increase slightly, while rents are expected to remain stable on the whole.
FRANKFURTWiesbaden
Mainz
Darmstadt
Koblenz
Hanau
Aschaffenburg
Bad Homburg
Bensheim
Hofheim
Bad Nauheim
Butzbach
Bingen
Gelnhausen
Alzey Gernsheim
Wörrstadt
Alzenau
HESSE
RHEINLAND-PFALZ
3
3
3
3
3
61
61
61
45
45
5
5
5
63
6360
66
48
67
661
66
66
Rhein
Rhein
R hein
Mai n
Ma in
Lahn
Rhein
Main
Mosel
Lahn
Taube r
Main
Usa
1
2
Cargo City South
Vicinity of Frankfurtairport
Core area
Periphery
Outer periphery
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MAJOR CONTRACTS IN FRANKFURT
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q2 Rüsselsheim IKEA 33,000
Q3 Rodenbach Logistics company 31,400
Q1 Gernsheim Wholesale/retail company 20,600
Q2 Bodenheim Food manufacturer 20,300
Q1 Dietzenbach Eichler-Kammerer 18,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE FRANKFURT LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 6.30 €/m² 6.60 €/m²
Average rent 4.95 €/m² 5.10 €/m²
Take-up 675,000 m² 417,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 11.8 % 33.8 %
– Share of new buildings 55.6 % 57.0 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
HAMBURG
STRONG FINAL QUARTER – WEAK RESULTA very lively fourth quarter (132,000 m²) was unable to defy the signs which had emerged in the first nine months of the year: As a result of the acute shortage of supply, the Hamburg market for storage and logistics space (includ-ing the surrounding area) reported its weakest result since 2008, with take-up totalling 373,000 m². The ever tighter supply / demand ratio is reflected in particular in the share of space appointed to a modern standard, which did not even amount to one third of the total volume in 2019. At the same time, virtually no sites remain available for new buildings, which means that the prevailing demand still has to be met by existing properties, particularly with regard to premises in the vicinity of the city proper. Such properties are often not in an adequate state of repair, however, and do not meet the present-day requirements of modern logistics firms and industrial companies. This represents a crucial location factor for large-scale companies in particular, in view of which many firms are unable to pursue their expan-sion plans in Hamburg. Not a single deal in the range above 35,000 m² has been reported in the market territory in the past three years.
A DECADE DOMINATED BY LOGISTICS FIRMSThe port – the third-largest container handling terminal in Europe – continues to be a driving force behind the success of the city’s economy. As such, it is no surprise that logis-tics firms lead the breakdown of take-up by sectors, with a share of just under 49 %. This is the eighth time that they have constituted the predominant sector in Hamburg in the past decade. Wholesale / retail companies contributed one quarter to the total volume, their share of 93,000 m² also marking a slight increase over the previous year in absolute terms (+5 %). Industrial companies surpassed their multi-year average to take third place on around 17 %.
SHIFT TOWARDS SMALLER-SCALE DEALSThe breakdown of take-up by size categories reveals the current structural imbalance on the Hamburg market. The segment below 5,000 m² accounts for almost half of the total take-up (47 %) – the highest share of the past ten years in this category. At the same time, the share of space in the large-scale segment (over 12,000 m²) is lower than at any time in the past decade, at just 11 %. Only two deals were reported in this size category.
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN HAMBURG
in %
21.3
20.1
25.1
22.4
7.8
≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN HAMBURG
in %
Logistics firms
Wholesale/retail
Manufacturing
Construction / crafts
Others
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
48.6
24.9
17.0
6.8
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
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373,
000
201420132012 2015 20162010 2011
617,
000 74
5,00
0
565,
000
450,
000
450,
000
595,
000
667,
000
2017
461,
000
2018
483,
000
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN HAMBURG
in m² Average 541,000 m²
2.7
3.3
18 | 19
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 HAMBURG
RENT TREND REMAINS MODERATEAs virtually no property developments are being realised in the Hamburg market territory, the prime rent has risen only moderately, by 30 cents to 6.30 €/m². The lack of new space is reflected even more clearly in the average rent, which remains virtually unaltered in comparison to the previous year, rising by just +1 % to 4.95 €/m². While sectors such as city logistics or e-commerce are quite willing to accept higher rents in pursuing their expansion strategies, no adequate supply is available to meet their requirements. Market zones such as the harbour or Billbrook / Allermöhe are also virtually fully developed. Brownfield developments could acquire a significant role here in the coming years, as numerous existing buildings are approaching the ends of their economic lives.
NEW SPACE URGENTLY REQUIREDHamburg’s logistics market finds itself in something of a dilemma. There is an urgent need for expansion of the available supply of space in order for the Hamburg logistics market to remain attractive. Local authorities in the area surrounding the city are pursuing increasingly restrictive policies, however. In the light of this situation, 2020 may realistically be expected to close with a similar result to 2019, despite the good outlook for the economy as a whole.
HAMBURG
Bremen
Lübeck
BremerhavenSchwerin
POEL
Norderstedt
Lüneburg
Delmenhorst
Elmshorn
Cuxhaven
Stade
Wismar
Pinneberg
Seevetal
Buxtehude
Buchholzin der Nordheide
Ahrensburg
Winsen (Luhe)
Uelzen
Itzehoe
Wedel
WeyheAchim (Weser)
Geesthacht
Henstedt-Ulzburg
Reinbek
Bad Oldesloe
Soltau
Schneverdingen
Bremervörde
Mölln
Lilienthal
Uetersen
Munster
Bad Segeberg
Schwarzenbek
Ratzeburg
Bad Bramstedt
HarsefeldHagenow
Glückstadt
Boizenburg/ElbeGnarrenburg
Horneburg Wittenburg
Freiburg(Elbe)
Marne
Brunsbüttel
Schaalsee
Großer RatzeburgerSee Schweriner
See (Außensee)
Dassower See
7
7
7
20
2020
24 24
24
7
7
1
1
1
1
1
1
23
23
28
21
21
27
27
27
27
39
14
14
Elbe
Elbe
Elbe
Oste
Oste
OsteOste
Elbe
Elbe
ElbeElbe
Weser
W
ümme
Elbe1
2
Harbour
Billbrook/Allermöhe
Core area
Periphery
Outer periphery
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MAJOR CONTRACTS IN HAMBURG
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q4 Hamburg United Logistics & Distribution 29,000
Q4 Bad Oldesloe E-commerce company 12,100
Q1 Hamburg nutwork Handelsgesellschaft 11,700
Q4 Kaltenkirchen E-commerce company 11,400
Q2 Bad Oldesloe Hertling 9,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE HAMBURG LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 6.00 €/m² 6.30 €/m²
Average rent 4.90 €/m² 4.95 €/m²
Take-up 483,000 m² 373,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 20.4 % 17.5 %
– Share of new buildings 28.5 % 14.5 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
LEIPZIG
BELOW-AVERAGE RESULTFollowing a record year for the Leipzig market for logistics and storage space in 2018, 2019 failed to build on this per-formance. Take-up totalling 164,000 m² was almost 26 % short of the ten-year average and down by some 57 % on the previous year’s result. The decline in take-up is attrib-utable in particular to the fact that, in contrast to the re-cent high-volume years, not a single deal over 35,000 m² was reported. The most prominent deals in 2019 involved a retailer and a manufacturing company: Rossman is building a regional depot (26,000 m²) in the Brehna industrial zone on the A 9 motorway and a developer is proceeding with a construction project comprising 23,000 m² for a company from the automotive sector in Großkugel. In general, how-ever, demand far outweighs the supply of existing premises available at short notice and appointed to modern stand-ards, particularly in the vicinity of the airport and along the axis of the A 14 and A 9 motorways.
RESULT DETERMINED BY THREE SECTORSTake-up is surprisingly evenly spread across three different sectors. Industrial / manufacturing companies again head the rankings, with a 35.5 % share. Wholesale / retail compa-nies are only just behind, contributing 34.5 % to the overall result. These shares are above the multi-year average for both demand groups. While logistics firms also attained a substantial result, with a good 26 % share, this figure is markedly below the multi-year average (44 %). The own-er-occupier deals for Dematic (18,000 m²) and Schäflein (14,000 m²) contributed significant volumes to the total take-up for logistics firms.
MAJOR DEALS SHAPE THE MARKETIn contrast to the preceding years, no deal over 35,000 m² was reported. Consequently, the segments from 12,000 to 20,000 m² and 20,000 to 35,000 m² made a particularly large contribution to total take-up, with five deals and a share of just under 62 %. Deals with a volume from 8,000 to 12,000 m² account for an unusually high share of take-up in relation to the multi-year average, at just under 18 %. In contrast, the usually well represented contracts for up to 8,000 m² contributed only a good one fifth, primarily as a result of an inadequate supply.
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
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TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN LEIPZIG
in %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
Manufacturing
Wholesale/retail
Logistics firms
Supply/disposal
Others
35.5
3.4
34.5
26.3
0.3
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN LEIPZIG
in %
6.8
8.05.7
30.0
17.7
31.8
≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
2019
164,
000
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN LEIPZIG
in m² Average 220,000 m²
2010 2011 2015 2016201420132012 2017
90,0
00
320,
000
219,
000
187,
000
210,
000 250,
000
270,
000
110,
000
2018
383,
000
20 | 21
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 LEIPZIG
RENTS REMAIN STABLERents for storage and logistics space in the Leipzig market territory were stable over the course of 2019, and presently still stand at 4.50 €/m² for the prime rent and 3.70 €/m² for the average rent. The prime rent continues to be paid in inner city locations or in the vicinity of the airport and the heartlands of the automotive clusters, on account of the prevailing shortage of space there. In contrast, rents for old existing premises which are not appointed to a modern standard are currently under pressure. Pleasing rent trends apply in the peripheral locations, which are becoming in-creasingly popular among e-commerce companies in par-ticular, by virtue of their good transport infrastructure.
OUTLOOK The Leipzig logistics market looks back on a year of muted activity which is attributable first and foremost to the lack of large-volume deals. This is not unusual, however, as a large number of large contracts were concluded in the pre-vious year, as a result of which the supply is currently lower. As such, the supply side once again constituted the limiting factor obstructing higher take-up in 2019. In the light of various new developments (such as the Beiersdorf site in the Seehausen 2 industrial zone) combined with a general economic upswing, a higher take-up again appears realistic.
LEIPZIG
Halle (Saale)
Dessau-Roßlau
LutherstadtWittenberg
Bitterfeld-Wolfen
Halberstadt
Weißenfels
Merseburg
Bernburg
Riesa
Köthen
Zeitz
Sangerhausen
Staßfurt
Quedlinburg
DelitzschLutherstadtEisleben
Apolda
Borna
Torgau
Sömmerda
Schkeuditz
Eilenburg
Wurzen
Grimma
Oschatz
Taucha
Markranstädt
Jüterbog
Altenburg
Brandis
Bad Düben
Leisnig
Nossen
ZwenkauerSee
Großer Goitzschesee
Geiseltalsee
THÜRINGEN
SAXO NY-ANHALT
9
9
9
9
4
72
71
71
38
38
38
38
3636
14
14
14
14
14
17
Bo de
Bode
Unstru
t
Saale
Elbe
El be
Elbe
Elbe
Elbe
Elbe
Mulde
Mulde
Mlude
Saale
Saale
Saal e
Ilm
Unstrut
12
1
2
Schkeuditzmotorway interchange
Industrial zoneNord/BMW
Core area
Peripheriy
Outer periphery
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MAJOR CONTRACTS IN LEIPZIG
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q1 Brehna Rossmann 26,000
Q2 Kabelsketal Automotive Cluster 23,000
Q1 Leipzig Dematic 18,000
Q2 Kabelsketal Schäflein 14,000
Q4 Leipzig Mobis Parts 10,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE LEIPZIG LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 4.50 €/m² 4.50 €/m²
Average rent 3.70 €/m² 3.70 €/m²
Take-up 383,000 m² 164,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 20.5 % 45.7 %
– Share of new buildings 81.1 % 61.3 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
NEW RECORD THANKS TO MEGA DEALThe Munich market for logistics and storage space reported a new all-time take-up record of 419,000 m², surpassing the previous year’s result by 72 %. The ten-year average was also outstripped by almost 43 %. The fact that around 55 % of this take-up was attributable to a single deal puts this ap-parently remarkable result into context, however. The deal in question concerns a let to KraussMaffei in Vaterstetten comprising 230,000 m² of space. Without this exceptional contract, the result would be below the 200,000 m² mark and thus appreciably lower than in recent years. This is ex-plainable in part by the continuing shortage of space, which makes it difficult for many companies to find suitable prem-ises. At the same time, a slight decline in demand is to be observed especially among automotive component suppli-ers as a result of the difficult situation facing the automo-tive industry.
INDUSTRY GENERATES THREE QUARTERS OF TAKE-UPThe sectoral statistics are dominated by the KraussMaf-fei deal, which grants industrial companies a 75 % share. The relative shares of take-up for the remaining two ma-jor demand groups are correspondingly low. Both whole-sale / retail companies and logistics firms also contributed less volume in absolute terms, however. E-commerce com-panies, while essentially highly expansionary in character, continue to experience considerable difficulties finding premises and sites in central locations offering the required proximity to customers for last mile logistics. Logistics firms are increasingly being forced to seek properties in other re-gions on account of the severe lack of available space in the city area and the exurbs.
GAINS FOR SEVERAL SIZE CATEGORIESThe fact that the category over 20,000 m² accounts for more than half of the total take-up is attributable entirely to the above-stated major deal. Demand was also buoyant once again in the small-volume segment up to 3,000 m², which traditionally plays an important role for the Munich market, resulting in a 13.5 % share of take-up. Contracts spanning the range from 5,000 to 8,000 m² follow up in third place on 10 %. Increases in the contributions by the size categories from 3,000 to 5,000 m² and between 12,000 and 20,000 m² were also reported, even though their shares may appear low at first sight, at just under 9 % and a good 7 % respectively.
MUNICH
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN MUNICH
in %
7.2
5.1
10.4
8.8
55.0
13.5
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN MUNICH
in m² Average 294,000 m²
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
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TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN MUNICH
in %
Manufacturing
Wholesale/retail
Logistics firms
Construction / crafts
Others
75.1
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
14.2
5.35.3
2019
419,
000
≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
0.1
2017 20182015 20162010 2011 2012 20142013
322,
000
332,
000
312,
000
207,
000 27
8,00
0
241,
000 29
7,00
0
287,
000
243,
000
22 | 23
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 MUNICH
RENTS STILL STABLERents remain stable on the whole. This is due in particular to the very limited supply of sites, as a result of which there is only a small volume of newly completed space enter-ing the market which is appointed to a modern standard and thus justifies higher rents. Against this background, the prime rent remains unchanged at 7 €/m². While in 2018 this rent level was only attained for high-quality premises in absolute prime locations, it now also applies in certain poorer locations on account of the short supply of ad-equate properties, however. The average rent is similarly unchanged at 6.10 €/m².
OUTLOOK Demand in 2020 looks set to be at a similar level to in the preceding years. Slight drops, e. g. in the automotive sec-tor, should be offset by other sectors, such as e-commerce. As things stand, take-up on a par with the average for recent years appears the most likely scenario. The pro-nounced shortage of supply which is increasingly limiting take-up above all in the large-volume segment is unlikely to change, as the few new developments are generally let prior to completion. In view of this situation, a slight rise in the prime rent cannot be ruled out.
MUNICH
Augsburg
Landshut
Freising
Dachau
Erding
Fürstenfeldbruck
Landsbergam Lech
Unterschleißheim
Pfaffenhofenan der Ilm
Geretsried
Unterhaching
Starnberg
Vaterstetten
Weilheimin Oberbayern
Moosburgan der Isar
Holzkirchen
Gra ng beiMünchen
Tutzing
Ammersee
9
9
88
95
96
96
8
8
94
9492
92
99
Paar
Inn
Inn
Lechhc
eL
Wer
tach
Isar
Isar
Große Vils
Core area
Periphery
Outer periphery
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Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q3 Vaterstetten KraussMaffei 230,000
Q3 Weilheim i. OB Xylem 15,000
Q1 Hohenbrunn Trading enterprise 11,500
Q2 Odelzhausen Noerpel-Gruppe 9,800
Q3 Weßling Messring 7,200
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE MUNICH LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 7.00 €/m² 7.00 €/m²
Average rent 6.10 €/m² 6.10 €/m²
Take-up 243,000 m² 419,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 2.7 % 10.7 %
– Share of new buildings 39.0 % 69.3 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
THIRD-BEST RESULTWhile just short of the previous year’s total (-6 %), the market for logistics and storage space in the Ruhr region nevertheless achieved the third-best result of the past ten years, with take-up totalling 493,000 m². The fact that the multi-year average was surpassed by a hefty 18 % also in-dicates that 2019 was a good year. As such, the clearly dis-cernible upward trend of the past few years has continued unabated. This is attributable first and foremost to a broad demand base, which is confirmed by the spread of take-up across the entire market territory. The most prominent deals included two owner-occupier transactions – for Edeka in Oberhausen (90,000 m²) and Ferdinand Bilstein GmbH & Co. KG in Gelsenkirchen (45,000 m²) - and a lease taken out by retail company L-Shop-Team GmbH in Unna for 53,500 m².
WHOLESALE/RETAIL AMASSES HALF OF TAKE-UPFollowing a slightly weaker result in 2018, wholesale / re-tail companies have picked up again, amassing half of the total take-up. Apart from the above-mentioned let, a lease on 15,800 m² taken out by an e-commerce company in Unna also contributed to this performance, along with a host of small and medium-sized deals. Logistics firms, which led the rankings in 2018, slip down into second place with a share of one quarter. This result markedly below their customary share is primarily attributable to a lack of major deals, the likes of which boosted the result a year before. Meanwhile, manufacturing companies gained ground, reporting their best performance of recent years with a 22 % share.
KEEN DEMAND ACROSS ALL SEGMENTSA particularly notable aspect is the comparatively low share of 42 % for large-volume deals over 20,000 m², which is markedly down on recent years. Demand is consequently focused to a large extent on small and medium-sized deals. This scenario is highlighted by the fact that all other size categories report an increase in both their relative shares of turnover and their absolute volumes. The lively market is thus underpinned by a broad base, rather than hinging on a small number of major deals.
RUHR REGION
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN THE RUHR REGION
in %
6,8
9,5
73,1
10,6
≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,000–8,000 m²
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN THE RUHR REGION*
in %
Wholesale / retail
Logistics firms
Manufacturing
Construction / crafts
Others
58,519,9
16,9
4,4
* Deals ≥ 5,000 m² © BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN THE RUHR REGION*
in m² Average 417,000 m²
* Deals ≥ 5,000 m²
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1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
292,
000
2011
49.9
25.9
22.1
42.4
23.6
19.1
14.9
239,
000
2015
475,
000
2017
915,
000
2016
281,
000
2014
195,
000
2013
337,
000
2012
493,
000
2019
524,
000
2018
1.11.0
24 | 25
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 RUHR REGION
RELATIVELY HIGH SHARE OF NEW SPACEAt just under 57 %, the share of newly completed space re-mains at the high level which traditionally prevails in the Ruhr region. One contributory factor here is the availability of sites, on which major developments have now been re-alised, following protracted approval phases. As the supply situation for construction sites remains strained, the share of newly completed space in total take-up could stagnate or decline in the long term, however. The increased land prices and construction costs are already impacting on rents, with the prime rent rising by 4 % compared to 2018, at 4.90 €/m². This level of rent is now no longer attained solely in Duisburg, but increasingly also in the central and eastern Ruhr region.
OUTLOOK In view of the broad demand base and somewhat brighter prospects for the economy as a whole, 2020 is also expect-ed to be a good year for the logistics market. Supply is likely to decline slightly in the course of the year, although no pronounced bottleneck situations are to be reckoned with. Companies seeking large units will nevertheless have to resort to new developments in many instances, in view of which a further rise in the prime rent in particular is prob-able. Assuming large-volume deals pick up, take-up could top the 500,000 m² mark again.
DortmundEssenDuisburg
BochumGelsenkirchen
Hagen
Hamm
Mülheim an derRuhr
Recklinghausen
2
2
2 45
45
1
1
3
3
46
40
40
31
57
57
43
43
42
44
44
46
Rhein
Rhein
Ruhr
LippeLippe
Lenne
Ruhr
Herne
1 Port of Duisburg(logport)
Core area
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Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q3 Oberhausen Edeka 90,000
Q2 Unna L-Shop-Team 53,500
Q4 Gelsenkirchen Ferdinand Bilstein 45,000
Q4 Werne Imperial 20,300
Q1 Unna E-commerce company 15,800
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE LOGISTICS MARKET IN THE RUHR REGION*
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 4.70 €/m² 4.90 €/m²
Average rent 3.90 €/m² 4.10 €/m²
Take-up 524,000 m² 493,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 35.1 % 37.4 %
– Share of new buildings 75.5 % 56.7 %
* Deals ≥ 5,000 m² © BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
STUTTGART
SUPPLY CONTINUES TO RESTRICT TAKE-UPThe Stuttgart market for logistics and storage space re-mains unable to exploit the existing potential to the full, with total take-up of 153,000 m² below what might have been expected in view of the good and stable demand situ-ation. The result is thus almost 17 % down on the previ-ous year, and also falls short of the multi-year average by almost 6 %. This trend is primarily attributable to the far too inadequate supply which has prevailed for some time now, and which stems in part from the special geograph-ic situation of the core market in Stuttgart. An additional contributory factor here is the highly restrictive policies of many local government authorities when it comes to des-ignating sites for development. This situation is further highlighted by the fact that modern newly completed space is barely available not only in Stuttgart itself, but also in other preferred locations, such as Böblingen, Sindelfingen or Esslingen. This is increasingly prompting companies to resort to regions situated further away, particularly in the Stuttgart-Karlsruhe-Rhine-Neckar triangle.
MANUFACTURING COMPANIES THE CLEAR NO. 1The structure of Stuttgart’s economy is such that manufac-turing companies traditionally represent the key mainstay of demand. They also maintained this special standing in 2019, contributing a share of 60 % to take-up. The automo-tive sector clearly heads this segment, with a continuing high demand for space despite its current difficulties – not least of all in order to pursue developments in the field of electric mobility. As such, it comes as no surprise that the let to Daimler in Waiblingen constituted the largest transac-tion (42,000 m²). Wholesale / retail companies follow up in second place on 21 %, with a lease taken out for 9,900 m² in Rottenburg by outdoor specialist Bergfreunde making a sizeable contribution here. The leading trio is completed by logistics firms, with a share of just under 15 %.
BROAD SPREAD OF DEMAND The let to Daimler took large-volume deals over 20,000 m² to the top of the ranking, with a share of just under 28 %. Aside from this outlier, the volume is spread particularly evenly across the remaining size categories, which each contribute between 12 and 20 % to the overall result. The fact that smaller contracts for up to 3,000 m² lead the re-maining categories with a share of around 20 % indicates that demand is very buoyant overall.
TAKE-UP BY SIZE CATEGORY IN STUTTGART
in %
12.5
12.115.0
12.5
27.620.3
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
LIGHT INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS TAKE-UP IN STUTTGART
in m² Average 162,000 m²
300,000
200,000
100,000
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TAKE-UP BY SECTOR IN IN STUTTGART
in %
Manufacturing
Wholesale/retail
Logistics firms
Construction / crafts
Others59.9
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
21.2
14.5
2019
153,
000
≥20,001 m²
12,001–20,000 m²
8,001–12,000 m²
5,001–8,000 m²
3,001–5,000 m²
≤3,000 m²
2.0 2.4
2017 20182015 20162013 2014
61,0
00
205,
000
108,
000
131,
000
292,
000
184,
000
26 | 27
LOGISTICS MARKET GERMANY 2020 STUTTGART
LOW OWNER-OCCUPIER AND NEW-BUILD SHARESThe highly limited availability of sites for logistics usages, both in Stuttgart’s core market and in many local authority areas in the extended market territory, is reflected in the owner-occupier and new-build shares, which are low by na-tionwide standards and have also fallen in comparison to 2018. Owner occupiers account for only 16 %, and the share of new space is also markedly lower than in many other logistics regions, at 41 %. Against this backdrop, it is no sur-prise that the tight supply situation is reflected in the rent trend. Accordingly, the prime rent has risen by 4 % over the past twelve months to 7 €/m², and the average rent has also increased, by almost 2 % to a current level of 5.40 €/m².
OUTLOOK No substantial change to the underlying supply and de-mand situation is foreseeable for 2020. This means that the market will continue to be shaped by a supply bottleneck which is likely to limit the take-up of space. On the other side of the balance, demand is likely to remain good, and may even increase slightly in the face of a gentle economic upturn. Against this backdrop, take-up in 2020 on a par with the previous year would count as a success. As things stand, a slight rise in prime and average rents thus appears to represent the most likely scenario for 2020.
STUTTGART
Karlsruhe
Heilbronn
Pforzheim
Reutlingen
Esslingenam Neckar
Ludwigsburg
Tübingen
Aalen
Sindel ngen Göppingen
Baden-Baden
WaiblingenRastatt
Heidenheiman der Brenz
Leonberg
Bruchsal
Nürtingen
Schorndorf
SchwäbischHall
Sinsheim
Backnang
Crailsheim
Herrenberg
Vaihingenan der Enz
Geislingenan der SteigeAchern
Horb amNeckar
Calw
Nagold
Eppingen
Bad Rappenau
Weil derStadt
Künzelsau
Langenau
Ulm
Welzheim
Lauffen amNeckar
Laichingen
Möckmühl
7
7
7
61
8
8
8
6
66
6
5
5
5
5
81
81
81
65
358
Donau
Neckar
Le R
hin
/ Rhe
in
Le R
hin
/ Rhe
in
Jagst
J agst
Rhein
Rhein
Kocher
Kocher
L'Ill
Necka
r
Neckar
Wörnitz
Jagst
1
2
Stuttgart harbour
AirportLeinfelden-Echterdingen
Core area
Periphery
Outer periphery
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MAJOR CONTRACTS IN STUTTGART
Quarter Location Company Area (m²)
Q2 Waiblingen Daimler 42,000
Q1 Böblingen Car manufacturer 19,000
Q2 Rottenburg Bergfreunde 9,900
Q1 Fellbach Medi1one medical 8,000
Q3 Reutlingen Guadagno Transport & Logistik 7,000
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
KEY FIGURES FOR THE STUTTGART LOGISTICS MARKET
2018 2019 Trend 2020
Prime rent 6.70 €/m² 7.00 €/m²
Average rent 5.30 €/m² 5.40 €/m²
Take-up 184,000 m² 153,000 m²
– Share of owner-occupiers 39.5 % 16.3 %
– Share of new buildings 70.1 % 41.2 %
© BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH, December 31, 2019
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