Download - Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia
![Page 1: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia
2. workshop 7.+8. January 2013
![Page 2: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1. Welcome (Monday 7.1.2012: 10.00)– Translation
2. Inception report (10.30)– Purpose and general discussion– Scenarios – Balmorel model– Stream model– Next step
3. Theme discussions: Estonia perspective (14.30-16.30)– Oil Shale (Energy carriers group)– 110% rule (Security of supply group)
4. Summary from day 15. Input from expert groups (Tuesday 8.1.2013: 9.00)
– Consumption– Energy carriers (not covered above)– District heating
6. Next steps7. Bilateral meeting with Elering + WEC about inception report
![Page 3: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
INCEPTION REPORT
![Page 4: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Increasing amount of details
• Tender– 5 pages
• Project description– 12 pages
• Inception report (draft) + data report (draft)– 28 + 67 pages
• Final inception report + data report + input from expert groups
![Page 5: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale Liberal market
CO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
Single track scenarios
110%
Estonian EE
![Page 6: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale Liberal market
CO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
Single track scenarios
110%
Estonian EE
![Page 7: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale Liberal market
CO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
Single track scenarios
110%
Estonian EE
![Page 8: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Scenarios
Reference
Market price for oil shale
Liberal market CO2 concern
Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapseEnvironmetal concern
Intenationalorientation
![Page 9: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Scenarios• General comment to the scenario set-up• Details about each of the six scenarios (1 reference and
five single-track scenarios)• Agreement on how to describe Russia (CO2 target, import
tax) and the dynamic in the electricity trade with Russia• The expected developed in nuclear generation.• Decision about the inclusion of CCS as an technology
option.• Define the alternative to 110%
– 90%– Capacity value for wind…– 100% for all regions?
![Page 10: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
BALMOREL
![Page 11: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Data
• Description of current system (Estonia + Model area)• Development 2010-2020• Technology catalogue • Definition of input 2020-2050 (= definition of scenarios)• Rules, e.g. 110% Estonian capacity
Model• Optimal solution for each scenario• Time step (2020, 2022,…), Time steps per year (12*6=72 steps per year) • Model based investments from 2020
Results
• Electricity and district heating generation per area per technology• Investments• Electricity prices, fuel costs• Emissions
![Page 12: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Time steps: 1, 2 and 5 years
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Predefined capital Model driven investments in generation and transmission
![Page 13: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Output
• Raw model results are extremely detailed• Important to maintain overview!– Study aggregated results– Drill down to detailed results• Operation of single unit
![Page 14: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Results
• Difference between two scenarios, e.g.: – Marked price for oil shale – Reference– Liberalised market – Marked price for oil shale
• Investments in generation and transmission– Per country: Which technology
• Operation (GWh, emissions, electricity prices)– Per country
![Page 15: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Difference: Impact of stepEstonia Other Baltic Nordic German and
PolandNW Russia and Belarus
2030
2050
• Technical– MW installed generation (total)– MW transmission– GWh generated (total)– CO2 emissions
• Economical– Capital costs– Fuel and operational cost– Average electricity price
![Page 16: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Difference: Economic overview20302050
Estonia Other Baltic
Nordic German and Poland
NW Russia
Total
Consumer surplusGenerator profitTSO profit
Total xxx
![Page 17: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Balmorel
• A broad discussion with the goal to make all stakeholders aware the type of model, the way the model is planned to be used and type of results. This includes the idea of endogenous investments in generation and transmission capacity from 2020 to 2050.
• Updated information about Estonia• Suggested data for the entire model area (outside
Estonia and Russia). • Discussion of how to model Russia.
![Page 18: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
STREAM
![Page 19: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Stream• Heat demand in household and service sector
– Development of building stock– New buildings (energy standards – are these complied with?)– Demolishment of existing buildings– Rates for renovation of existing buildings (cost and potentials)– Change in composition of building stock (e.g. multistory buildings => single-family house)– Demographic factors (e.g. rural => urban)
• Heat supply in household and service sector– Economic comparison of costs of energy of heat supply using different collective and individual heating
technologies– For different types of buildings: multistory, single-family, new dwellings– To determine scenarios for the expansion or contraction of district heating supply– To determine supply of energy in areas not supplied by district heating
• Electricity demand in household and service sector– Choice of methodology– Historic trends, coupling with GDP, experience from other countries– Bottom-up, vintage modeling: require information about stock of electrical equipment, projections for
their dissemination and development in specific demand
![Page 20: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Energy demand with industry– Sector specific projections– Historic trends per sector coupled with GDP– Input from expert groups on expected future developments for most important
branches• Transport sector
– Growth rates in the demand for transport (personkilometers)– Coupling to GDP (historic trends),experience from other countries concerning saturation
in transport demand– Development in efficiency of conventional combustion engine technologies– Introduction rate for new technologies such as electric vehicles, Compressed natural gas– Modal-change (car => bus/train/…)– Blending rates for biofuels– Diesel produced from oil-shale
![Page 21: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
NEXT STEP
![Page 22: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
SUMMARY OF DAY 1
![Page 23: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
• Data report…
![Page 24: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
• Model investments from 2018• Allow investments in CHP in heat-only district heating • Nuclear
– Fixed development + Allow investments in nuclear after 2030 • Finland, Poland, Baltic states
• Include CCS– Gradually from 2025– Potential per country. No sites in Estonia
• Storage– Allow investments in
• Heat storage (CHP)• Pumped hydro storage• Other technology (PHES)?
![Page 25: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
• Russia and Belarus– 3 x 500 MW capacity + 700 MW to Kaliningrad– Carbon leakage…
• Border tax reflecting CO2 price
• Oil shale– Electricity generation from oil shale 100% sold on market
from 1.1.2013– Delete Oil shale at market price?
• Alternative to 110%– 0%
![Page 26: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Reference
Liberal marketCO2 concern Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Combination scenario
110%
![Page 27: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Scenarios
Reference
Liberal market
CO2 concern
Renewable energy focus
CO2 market collapse
Environmental concern
Internationalorientation
![Page 28: Long-term energy scenarios for Estonia](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062400/56816771550346895ddc5cd6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Next stepsPhase Date TasksInitial scenario set-up
16 Jan. 2013 Final delivery from expert groups of input data and assumptions for reference scenario and “single track” scenarios.
30 Jan. 2013 Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering.
Scenario calculations
15 Feb. 2013 Reference scenario note with preliminary results from modelling the reference scenario.
22 Feb. 2013 Skype meeting with expert groups regarding interpretation of the reference scenario
15 Mar. 2013 Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering. 01 Apr. 2013 Interim report with results for reference scenario and single track scenarios.
08 Apr. 2013
Meeting with expert groups:• Discussion of results;• Revision of “single track” scenarios;• Agreement on relevant "combination scenario”.
23 Apr. 2013 Project status via Skype with project coordinator and Elering.
Conclusions
07 May 2013 Draft final report
14 May 2013
Meeting with expert groups:• Discussion of main conclusions;• Identification of recommendations for important actions in the short-term in
order to achieve long-term goals and identification of important barriers.
31 May 2013 Final report and transfer of data and models.