Long-Term Multigas Mitigation Strategies
usingMESSAGE
Shilpa Rao & Keywan Riahi
IIASA
EMF-21, December 2003
2/25
The MESSAGE Model
• Bottom-up systems-engineering model• Includes 400 individual energy conversion
and end-use technologies• 11 World Regions• Calculates feasible energy supply
technology structure, which …• … requires least cost investment and• … satisfies a given useful-energy demand
3/25
The Reference Energy System
gaswellExtraction Treatment
Conversion Technologies
Distribution Technologies
Final Energy
End-Use Technologies
Energy Services
coalmine
oil well
agro-forestry
gascoalbio-
massoil
powerplant
refin-ery
grid/truckgridPipeline
/truck
gaselect-ricity
kero-sene
aircraft, light bulb, furnace,air conditioner, oven, automobile, etc.
synfuelplant
grid/truck
syntheticfuel
sun-light
hydrogenplant
hydrogen
grid/on site
Energy Conversion Sector
Primary Sources
4/25
MethodologyMethodology-- II
•• Full endogenization of energy related and most Full endogenization of energy related and most industrial emissionsindustrial emissions(CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CF4, HFC)(CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CF4, HFC)
•• Combination of various economic drivers used to Combination of various economic drivers used to develop the longdevelop the long--term path for nonterm path for non--energy emissions energy emissions in the baseline in the baseline –– Include: Total and Urban Population; Total GDP, Agricultural Include: Total and Urban Population; Total GDP, Agricultural
& Industrial GDP; Energy Consumption; Transportation & Industrial GDP; Energy Consumption; Transportation Demand; Electric T&D Demand; Electric T&D
–– Productivity improvements and decreasing emission factors Productivity improvements and decreasing emission factors were assumed for most of the sourceswere assumed for most of the sources
5/25
MethodologyMethodology-- IIII
•• BottomBottom--up representation of mitigation up representation of mitigation technologies, wherever information availabletechnologies, wherever information available
•• Endogenized energy feedback effects from Endogenized energy feedback effects from non CO2 mitigation (capture of CH4 in coal non CO2 mitigation (capture of CH4 in coal mines, CH4 from landfills, etc.)mines, CH4 from landfills, etc.)
•• Estimation of ancillary benefits for ALL gasesEstimation of ancillary benefits for ALL gases•• MAC approach for CH4 emissions from rice & MAC approach for CH4 emissions from rice &
enteric fermentation; and N2O from soilenteric fermentation; and N2O from soil
6/25
LongLong--Term ScenariosTerm Scenarios
•• Baseline :B2Baseline :B2--SRES ScenarioSRES Scenario
•• Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only)Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only)
•• Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)
7/25
Reference ScenarioB2 scenario
(based on IPCC SRES)
60314
135723510.421002000
3707.2408286.1
(x1.5)Atmos. CO2 Conc. ppmv
(x2)CO2 Emissions (GtC)
(x3)Primary Energy (EJ)
(x8)GDP (trillion $1990)
(x2)Population (billion)
8/25
Baseline EmissionsBaseline Emissions
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GTC
E
HFC-134CF4SF6N2OCH4CO2
9/25
Sources of EmissionsSources of Emissions
•• CO2: fossil fuels; cement and gas flaringCO2: fossil fuels; cement and gas flaring•• CH4: fossil fuel extraction, distribution and enduse; CH4: fossil fuel extraction, distribution and enduse;
biomass; solid waste; manure management; enteric biomass; solid waste; manure management; enteric fermentation; rice cultivationfermentation; rice cultivation
•• N2O: fossil fuel; biomass; nitric and N2O: fossil fuel; biomass; nitric and adipicadipic acid acid industries; agricultural soilindustries; agricultural soil
•• SF6: Electric GIS; Magnesium productionSF6: Electric GIS; Magnesium production•• CF4: Aluminum production; semiconductorsCF4: Aluminum production; semiconductors•• HFCsHFCs: Residential, commercial and mobile : Residential, commercial and mobile
refrigeration and airrefrigeration and air--conditioning; insulation foams; conditioning; insulation foams; other sourcesother sources
10/25
Mitigation Scenario Mitigation Scenario (CO(CO22 only)only)
•• Identified a concentration constraint Identified a concentration constraint that is consistent with 4.5 W/mthat is consistent with 4.5 W/m22 global global radiative forcing (since radiative forcing (since preindustrialpreindustrial))
•• Only COOnly CO22 emissions can be reduced to emissions can be reduced to meet this constraint. (full spatial and meet this constraint. (full spatial and temporal flexibility of reductions)temporal flexibility of reductions)
11/25
Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)
•• Mitigation flexibility between all gasesMitigation flexibility between all gases•• Scenario constrained to meet the Total Scenario constrained to meet the Total
Carbon Equivalent of the gases from Carbon Equivalent of the gases from the CO2 only scenario.the CO2 only scenario.
•• Used 100Used 100--year year GWPsGWPs for calculationsfor calculations
12/25
Cumulative CO2 Reduction Cumulative CO2 Reduction (2000 (2000 -- 2100, GTC)2100, GTC)
•• Carbon Capture is the Carbon Capture is the largest contributor to largest contributor to CO2 reduction.CO2 reduction.
•• Nuclear energy Nuclear energy dominates the shifts in dominates the shifts in the energy system.the energy system.
•• Biomass plays an Biomass plays an important role in the important role in the latter half of the century latter half of the century when biomass scrubbers when biomass scrubbers become important.become important.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300GTC
OtherRenewables
Fossil fuel switch
Biomass
Nuclear
Carbon Capture
Multigas CO2-only
13/25
Cumulative CH4 Reduction Cumulative CH4 Reduction (2000(2000--2100 MTCH4)2100 MTCH4)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000MTCH4
Manure
Enteric
Rice
Energy
Landfills
Coal
Direct Gas Use Heat Prdn
Warm Climate Digesters
Stat & Mobile
Flaring67%
60%
29%
7%
9%
Oil & Gas
•• BottomBottom--up methodology up methodology enables us to evaluate enables us to evaluate optimum and point source optimum and point source technology strategies for technology strategies for reductionsreductions
•• Solid waste and Energy Solid waste and Energy sectors offer a large range sectors offer a large range of mitigation options.of mitigation options.
•• Regional differences are Regional differences are accounted foraccounted for-- anaerobic anaerobic digesters for manure digesters for manure management are management are significant in developing significant in developing countriescountries..
14/25
Cumulative N2O Reduction Cumulative N2O Reduction (2000(2000--2100, MTN2O)2100, MTN2O)
•• In the industrial sector, In the industrial sector, high efficiency options high efficiency options offer maximum potential offer maximum potential for global abatement (in for global abatement (in spite of higher costs).spite of higher costs).
•• Reductions from Reductions from agricultural soil are agricultural soil are assumed to be limited assumed to be limited based on EMFbased on EMF--MACsMACs..0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
MTN2O
Adipic Acid
Soil
Nitric AcidHigh-temperature Catalysts
Thermal destruction
93%
6%
89%
15/25
Cumulative FCumulative F--Gas Reductions (GTCE)Gas Reductions (GTCE)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20GTCE
CF4
SF6
HFC
Refrigeration & AC
Electric GIS
Aluminum
Insulation foams
Magnesium
47%
60%
16%
•• HFCsHFCs from refrigeration and from refrigeration and airair--conditioning are a fast conditioning are a fast growing source of GHG growing source of GHG emissions and offer emissions and offer considerable potential for considerable potential for reduction.reduction.
•• Electrical switchgear (leak Electrical switchgear (leak repair and recycling) is the repair and recycling) is the most attractive source for most attractive source for mitigation of SF6.mitigation of SF6.
•• Baseline already accounts for Baseline already accounts for worldwide decrease in CF4 worldwide decrease in CF4 from aluminum. Main from aluminum. Main mitigation option is mitigation option is improvement of process improvement of process control systems.control systems.
16/25
Cumulative Emissions ReductionsCumulative Emissions Reductions(2000(2000--2100)2100)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6 HFC
Emis
sion
s re
duct
ions
co
mpa
red
to th
e ba
selin
e (%
)
MultigasCO2-only
17/25
MESSAGE(GHG
emissions)
MAGICC(forcing/temp
change)
Revised CO2 Concentration Limit
Emissions for CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases
Initial CO2 concentrations (stabilization level)
MAGICC 4.0, Model for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, Wigley et al.
Mitigation Scenario (CO2Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only)only)
18/25
Total Radiative ForcingTotal Radiative Forcing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Glo
bal m
eanr
adia
tive
forc
ing
(W/m
2)BaselineCO2-onlyMultigas
19/25
Changes in Radiative Forcing Changes in Radiative Forcing
‘Others’ here includes forcing from tropospheric ozone, black carbon, sulfate and bio aerosols
CO2 only
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Others CO2 CH4 N2O F-GASES
Multigas
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
20/25
Global Temperature ChangeGlobal Temperature Change(from 2000)(from 2000)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
320
00
201
5
203
0
204
5
206
0
207
5
209
0Glo
bal m
ean
tem
pera
ture
cha
nge
(ºC
)Baseline CO2-only Multigas
Unc
erta
inty
Ran
ge
(Mul
tiga
s Sc
enar
io)
21/25
Atmospheric ConcentrationsAtmospheric Concentrations
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Atm
osph
eric
CO
2 co
ncen
tratio
ns (p
pmv)
BaselineCO2-onlyMultigas
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Atm
osph
eric
N2O
con
cent
ratio
ns (p
pbv)
BaselineCO2-onlyMultigas
300
800
1300
1800
2300
2800
3300
3800
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Atm
osph
eric
CH4
con
cent
ratio
ns (p
pbv) Baseline
CO2-onlyMultigas
COCO22 CHCH44NN22OO
22/25
Shadow Prices of COShadow Prices of CO22 ($/TC)($/TC)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
$/TC
CO2-only Multigas
23/25
Multigas MitigationMultigas Mitigation
•• The figure shows the The figure shows the various sources of various sources of GHGsGHGs and the and the mitigation achieved mitigation achieved from the baseline in from the baseline in the the multigasmultigas scenario.scenario.
•• Industry(including solid Industry(including solid waste) represents the waste) represents the top nontop non--energy sector energy sector for potential mitigation.for potential mitigation.
•• Agriculture is a larger Agriculture is a larger source of GHG source of GHG emissions but emissions but mitigation potential is mitigation potential is limited.limited.
19902010
20302050
20702090
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
Tota
l GH
G E
mis
sion
s (M
TCE)
Energy
Industry & Others
Agriculture
Mit
igat
ion
of
CO
2, C
H4, N
2O
an
d o
ther
GH
GS
36%66%8%
24/25
ConclusionsConclusions
•• In a multigas strategy, the bulk of In a multigas strategy, the bulk of emission reductions still comes from CO2.emission reductions still comes from CO2.
•• Industry, waste and agriculture are Industry, waste and agriculture are important potential sources of nonimportant potential sources of non--CO2 CO2 mitigation.mitigation.
•• Mitigation options in these sectors are Mitigation options in these sectors are technically and regionally diverse.technically and regionally diverse.
•• Inclusion of nonInclusion of non--CO2 gases leads to lower CO2 gases leads to lower costs.costs.