![Page 1: Lower Cape Fear River Estuary Model Progress Report Jim Bowen, UNC Charlotte October 11, 2007 Charlotte, NC (via Centra)](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062322/56649e915503460f94b95d72/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Lower Cape Fear River EstuaryModel Progress Report
Jim Bowen, UNC Charlotte
October 11, 2007
Charlotte, NC (via Centra)
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Description of Model Application
Open BoundaryElevation Cond.
Lower Cape Fear RiverEstuary Schematic
Black River, FlowBoundary Cond.
Cape Fear R. Flow Boundary Cond.
NE Cape FearFlow Boundary Cond.
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DO Conceptual ModelBOD Sources
Sediment Sediment O2 Demand
Cape Fear BOD Load
NECF & Black R. BOD Load
Muni & Ind. BOD Load
decaying phytopl.
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DO Conceptual ModelBOD Sources, DO Sources
Sediment Sediment O2 Demand
Ocean Inflows
SurfaceReaeration
Phytoplank. Productivity
MCFR Inflows
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BOD Consumption
DO Conceptual ModelBOD Sources, DO Sources & Sinks
Sediment Sediment O2 Demand
Ocean Inflows
SurfaceReaeration
Input of NECF & Black R. Low DO Water
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BOD Consumption
DO Conceptual ModelBOD Sources, DO Sources & Sinks
Sediment Sediment O2 Demand
Cape Fear BOD Load
NECF & Black R. BOD Load
Ocean Inflows
SurfaceReaeration
Input of NECF & Black R. Low DO Water
Phytoplank. ProductivityMuni & Ind.
BOD Load
decaying phytopl.
MCFR Inflows
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Modeling Developments
1. Finished Defining Model Grid• Bottom roughness investigation
• Finished sizing marsh cells
2. Further Developed Salinity Boundary Condition at Estuary Mouth
3. Finished Hydrodynamic Model Calibration
4. WQ Predictions Using New Grid
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Hydrodynamic Calibration - Summary, 8/07
• Excellent agreement w/ temperature and salinity
• Elevation agreement (not shown) still needs some work to get predicted tidal amplitude attenuation to match observed attenuation
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Model Grid Definition, Procedure
• Objective was to match tidal amplitudes at USGS Stations– Upper Estuary ( Lock and Dam 1, Black at
Currie, NECF at Burgaw)– Middle Estuary (Navassa, NECF at
Wilmington)– Lower Estuary (Marker 12)
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Sizing Marsh Cells, Procedure
• Systematically varied grid parameters to match observed elevation data– Rougher bottoms damp tidal amplitudes– More off-channel storage in wetland cells
damps tidal amplitudes
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Step 1. Can changes in channel roughness produce desired amplitude attenuation?• Used existing model grid
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Existing Model Grid• w/ changes described
in August update• 1004 water cells• Has “marsh cells” in
Black and NECF• Marsh cells 2.0 m
deep• All cells have the
same roughness• See kmz file for
more detail
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Step 1. Can changes in channel roughness produce desired amplitude attenuation?• Used existing model grid
• Varied roughness across grid – Typical value = 0.02– Minimum = 0.015 m (very smooth)– Maximum = 0.045 m (very rough)
• Looked at changes in amplitude as bottom roughness increased
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Results, Variable Bottom Roughness
M2 Tidal Amplitudes, LCFR
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Amplitude (m)
n=0.015
n=0.025
n=0.035
n=0.045
observed
Upper Estuary Middle Estuary Lower EstuaryL&D#1, Currie, Burgaw Navassa, Wilmington M12, M18
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Results, Variable Bottom Roughness
M2 Tidal Amplitudes, LCFR
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Amplitude (m)
n=0.015
n=0.025
n=0.035
n=0.045
observed
Upper Estuary Middle Estuary Lower EstuaryL&D#1, Currie, Burgaw Navassa, Wilmington M12, M18
Upper Estuary
Stations Underdamped
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Results, Variable Bottom Roughness
M2 Tidal Amplitudes, LCFR
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Amplitude (m)
n=0.015
n=0.025
n=0.035
n=0.045
observed
Upper Estuary Middle Estuary Lower EstuaryL&D#1, Currie, Burgaw Navassa, Wilmington M12, M18
Middle Estuary
Stations Underdamped
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Results, Variable Bottom Roughness
M2 Tidal Amplitudes, LCFR
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Amplitude (m)
n=0.015
n=0.025
n=0.035
n=0.045
observed
Upper Estuary Middle Estuary Lower EstuaryL&D#1, Currie, Burgaw Navassa, Wilmington M12, M18
Very little sensitivity to bottom roughness
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Sizing Off-Channel Storage, Procedure
1. Went through model grid and resized “marsh cells” to roughly fit wetland delineations
2. Developed a method to quickly vary width and roughness of marsh cells, create EFDC grid files, and see results w/ Google Earth
3. Ran model many times w/ various marsh configurations and observed results
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First step, try various marsh cell widths• Varied marsh cell widths
– Base case– Base case * 2– Base case * 5– Base case * 10
• Determined how width changes affected tidal amplitudes
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Base Case
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Base Case, Width x 2
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Base Case, Width x 5
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Base Case, Width x 10
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Results, Marsh Width VariationM2 Amplitudes at Seven Locations
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M2 Amplitude (m)
base
width *2
width * 5
width * 10
observed
Lock andDam 1
Black at Currie
NECF atBurgaw
CF at Navassa
NortheastCF @ Wilm.
Marker12
CF at mouth
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Results, Marsh Width VariationM2 Amplitudes at Seven Locations
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M2 Amplitude (m)
base
width *2
width * 5
width * 10
observed
Lock andDam 1
Black at Currie
NECF atBurgaw
CF at Navassa
NortheastCF @ Wilm.
Marker12
CF at mouth
• Width ratio = 2.0 gives best results overall
• Need additional damping at Navassa
• Added additional marsh cells in middle estuary (V1, V2)
• Also tried smaller changes in marsh width (1.5, 2.0)
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Version 1, Width x 2
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Version 2, Width x 1.0/2.0
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Version 3, Width x 1.5
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Results, Tidal AmplitudesM2 Amplitudes at Seven Locations
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M2 Amplitude (m)
width *2
width *2, v1
v2, width = 1.0/2.0
v3, width * 1.5
observed
Lock andDam 1
Black at Currie
NECF atBurgaw
CF at Navassa
NortheastCF @ Wilm.
Marker12
CF at mouth
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Results, Tidal AmplitudesM2 Amplitudes at Seven Locations
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M2 Amplitude (m)
width *2
width *2, v1
v2, width = 1.0/2.0
v3, width * 1.5
observed
Lock andDam 1
Black at Currie
NECF atBurgaw
CF at Navassa
NortheastCF @ Wilm.
Marker12
CF at mouth
• Unable to match exactly the observed pattern in amplitude reduction
• V2, Width ratio = 2.0 (in green) determined to give the best results overall
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Version 1, Width x 2
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Previous Model Grid
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New Grid Characteristics
• Off-channel storage locations based on wetland delineations
• 46 additional marsh cells added (1050 total cells)
• Additional off-channel storage added to each basin (Cape Fear, Black, NECF)
• Significant amount of marsh area added to middle and lower estuary
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Results for New Grid
• Also investigated alternate boundary condition specification– Now use AM and PM max salinity at station
M12 rather than daily max
• Now use hourly rather than 12-hour averaged monitoring data
• Looked at observed vs. predicted temperatures, salinities, elevations
• Compared results to those obtained previously w/ previous model grid
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Elevations, Currie, June 04
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Elevations, Burgaw, June 04
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Elevations, Navassa, June 04
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Elevations, NECF Wilm., June 04
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Elevations, Mrkr 12, June 04
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April - November 2004 Temp., 8/07
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April - November 2004 Temp., New
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April - November 2004 Temp., 8/07
Statistical Measures of Fit (units of deg C)
mean(pred-obs) =0.10046 ME_norm =0.0043473 RMSE =0.96224 MAE =0.71269 MAE_norm =0.030841 RMSE_norm =0.041639 r_squared =0.97272 num data comparisons = 4150 r2 adjusted for bias = 0.96465
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April - November 2004 Temp., New
Statistical Measures of Fit (units of deg C)
mean(pred-obs) =0.034678 ME_norm =0.0015146 RMSE =0.95803 MAE =0.71946 MAE_norm =0.031423 RMSE_norm =0.041843 r_squared =0.97439 num data comparisons = 4579 1-mse/var(obs) = 0.96604
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April - November 2004 Salinity, 8/07
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April - November 2004 Salinity, New
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April - November 2004 Salinity, 8/07
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April - November 2004 Salinity, New
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April - November 2004 Salinity, 8/07
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April - November 2004 Salinity, New
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April - November 2004 Salinity, 8/07
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April - November 2004 Salinity, New
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April - November 2004 Salinity, 8/07
Statistical Measures of Fit (units of PSU)
mean(pred-obs) =-0.25797 ME_norm =-0.043321 RMSE =2.6493 MAE =1.6424 MAE_norm =0.27581 RMSE_norm =0.4449 r_squared =0.87049 num data comparisons = 3517 1-mse/var(obs) = 0.84804
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April - November 2004 Salinity, 8/07
Statistical Measures of Fit (units of PSU)
mean(pred-obs) =-0.0044639 ME_norm =-0.00083995 RMSE =2.64 MAE =1.5505 MAE_norm =0.29176 RMSE_norm =0.49675 r_squared =0.87044 num data comparisons = 3953 1-mse/var(obs) = 0.85345
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Summary of Progress
• Model grid now includes a significant amount of off-channel storage
• Salinity mean errors now very low (important for predicting dilution)
• Tidal elevation attenuation now well simulated
• Hydrodynamic & conservative transport submodels now calibrated
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Summary of Progress, cont’d
• Also have developed a program for animating horizontal contour in Google Earth (good for showing DO results)
• Benoit Duclaud finished Masters thesis on new method for predicting reaeration (thesis, paper available next month)
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Information Available Online
• See LCFR website for more infowww.coe.uncc.edu/~jdbowen/LCFR
• This presentation is available
• Google Earth files available for download– Grid and wetland data from presentation– Monitoring stations, point sources– Final EFDC grid information– NOAA bathymetry
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Present Work
• Running water quality model now w/ new grid• Still waiting to get BOD data from LCFR Program• Finish assigning decay rates and redefining loads
once additional BOD data are available• Work on incorporating SOD data in a more
detailed way• Do additional model/data comparisons w/ DWQ
special study data