LWG Assessment of DOE’s Energy Portfolio
George CrabtreeArgonne National Laboratory
Basic Energy Sciences Advisory CommitteeAug 3, 2006
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Motivation
“We have not done as good a job as we should in
coordinating the activities of the ESE offices. We have not
done as good a job as we should in performing the
crosscutting analysis we need to justify our budgets to the
Congress.”
David Garman
Under Secretary for Energy, Science and Environment
Senate Confirmation Hearing
April 6, 2005
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
LWG Organization
David Garman
Ray Orbach
EERE, FE, NE, OE, Science (Pat Dehmer)
Don McConnell George Crabtree
Co-Chairs
~ 30 participants from Nat’l Labs
Under Secretaries for S&T• Energy • Science
R&D Council
S&T Integration Working Group
S&T Analysts
S&T LaboratoryWorking Group
Ad-Hoc S&T Analysis Teams
John SullivanAssociate Under Secretary for
EnergyJames Decker
Deputy Director, Office of ScienceCo-Chairs
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
LWG Participants
*Don McConnell (Battelle/PNNL)*George Crabtree (ANL)Mark Peters (ANL)J. Murray Gibson (ANL)John (Patrick) Looney (BNL) Doon Gibbs (BNL) Ralph Bennett (INL) J.W. (Bill) Rogers (INL) Mark Levine (LBNL) Heinz Frei (LBNL) Jane C. S. Long (LLNL) Julio Friedmann (LLNL)
*Co-Chairs
Charryl L Berger (LANL) Mary Neu (LANL) James Ekmann (NETL) Joe Strakey (NETL) Bobi Garrett (NREL)Ray Stults (NREL) Gordon Michaels (ORNL) James Roberto (ORNL) Mike Davis (PNNL) Doug Ray (PNNL) Margie Tatro (SNL) Terry Michalske (SNL)Paul Deason – SRNL
Part I: Context
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Program Scope
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Charge to Laboratory Working Group (LWG)
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Multi-year Process
FY05 (for FY07 programs) applied energy programs, qualitative impact
FY06: (for FY08 programs) + quantitative impact, relation to science, risk
FY07 (for FY09 cycle) + model analysis
FY08 (for FY10 cycle)
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
The Context: Advancing Four, Broad National Energy Policy Goals
1. Diversify our energy mix and reduce dependence on foreign petroleum, thereby reducing vulnerability to disruption and increasing the flexibility of the marketto meet U.S. needs
2. Reduce greenhouse gas emissionsand other environmental impacts(water use, land use, criteria pollutants) from our energy production and use
3. Create a more flexible, more reliableand higher capacity U.S. energy infrastructure, thereby improving energy services throughout the economy, enabling use of diverse sources, and improving robustness against disruption
4. Improve the energy productivity(or energy efficiency) of the U.S. economy
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio1. The highest leverage approach to reducing petroleum
imports lies in transportation fuel switching and efficiency improvements
• DOE’s portfolio includes technology options that offer routes to near to mid term material impact (clean Diesel, hybrids, ethanol)
• Attractive longer-term options may be feasible with significant, but likely achievable, scientific advances (cellulosic ethanol, fuel cells, energy storage)
2. Material reductions in carbon emissions depend on progress in zero net emission electric generation options, and fuel switching / efficiency improvements throughout the economy
• DOE’s applied R&D portfolio can materially improve available technology options in the near to mid term (building technology, hybrid electric drives, biofuels, advance nuclear, zero emissions fossil)
• Emerging scientific advances offer credible promise of transforming / breakthrough technologies in the longer term (Utility scale solar, bio-energy feedstocks, bio-mimetic energy conversion)
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio
3. Several areas of science offer great promise for advances that could transform energy technology
• Design and synthesis of materials exploiting nanoscale understanding
• Predictive modeling of complex systems
• Scattering facilities for in-situ molecular characterization
4. Two areas of science may merit consideration for increased attention within the portfolio
• Systems and synthetic biology
• Catalysis / separations of chemical transformations
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Our assessment highlighted six “headline” conclusions as to DOE’s energy S&T portfolio
5. There are two significant “gaps” in the portfolio that may retard progress towards national goals:
• CO2 sequestration science & technology
• Next-generation electric grid technologies
6. Refining R&D portfolio management practices could accelerate progress and create a “pipeline” of innovations targeted on national priorities
• Focus on defining critical outcomes to impact national goals
• Strengthen horizontal / crosscutting integration
• Align research strategies across the spectrum of technology maturity from discovery to technology deployment
• Consider “use-inspired” science initiatives to drive breakthrough discoveries into applications
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Reductions in petroleum imports pivot on transportation fuel switching and vehicle energy efficiency improvements
TransportationTransportation
Fuel switching
• Ethanol from sugar • Cellulosic ethanol
• Bio-diesel
• Oil Shales • Coal Liquifaction • Enhanced oil recovery • Heavy crude processing
• High Efficiency Diesels • Hybridization• Plug-in hybrids
• Lightweight structures / materials • Electrification of auxiliaries • Efficient conversion systems
• Hybridization • Electrical energy storage• Auxiliary power options
Biofuels
Efficiency
Alternative Liquids
Electric Substitution
Vehicle Systems
Propulsion Options
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Advances in the electrical system play a major role in achieving national goals for reducing environmental impacts from energy and increasing energy reliability
Electricity SystemElectricity System
Fuel switch
• ALWR • Closed fuel cycle • International reactor • High temperature reactor • LWR
• Future Gen • Sequestration • Advanced gasification • Zero-emission combustion
• Energy storage • High temperature superconductivity• Power electronics • Fault current limiters
• DG interconnection • MicroGrids • Sensors & real-time controls
• Zero-energy buildings • Solid-state lighting• Efficient integrated system
• Recycle & gasification by-product • Efficient processing • Novel manufacturing systems • Efficient conversion systems
• Wind – low speed & off-shore • Photovoltaic• Concentrating solar • Storage • Bio power
• Grid monitoring • Computational modeling • Real time visualization
Nuclear
Reliable & secure delivery
Efficiency
Zero emission fossil
Renewable
Advanced T&Dcomponents
Responsive loads & real-time controls
Visualization & modeling
Industrial
Buildings
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Mission impact requires translation from discovery to innovation to the market
• DOE R&D faces two broadly recognized gaps:– Translation of new concepts arising out of basic research to
conceptual stage but targeted R&D– Translation of near-mature technologies from working prototypes
to commercial deployment
• Both of these are “bi-directional” issues– Basic science creates entirely new technology possibilities– Technology efforts identify key issues requiring improved
scientific understanding or new approaches– Improving technology performance suggests new deployment
opportunities– Market feedback helps set technology performance requirements
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Technology Maturation and DeploymentApplied ResearchDiscovery
ResearchUse-inspired
Basic Research
Co-development Scale-up research At-scale
Demonstration Cost reduction Prototyping Manufacturing R&D Deployment support
Basic research for fundamental new understanding, the science grand challenges
Development of new tools, techniques, and facilities, including those for advanced modeling and computation
Basic researchfor new understanding specifically to overcome short-term showstoppers in the DOE technology programs
Research with the goal of meeting technical targets, with emphasison the development, performance, cost reduction, and durability of materials and components oron efficient processes
Proof of technology concept
Office of Science Applied Energy Programs
Goal: new knowledge / understanding Mandate: open-ended Focus: phenomena Metric: knowledge generation
Goal: practical targets Mandate: restricted to target Focus: performance Metric: milestone achievement
The LWG viewed energy S&T as a continuum with critical roles for DOE’s Science and Applied Energy portfolios
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Issues for Next Cycle: Technology
•Interaction of energy sources: “fuel switching”– Coal-gas-nuclear-renewable for electricity– Petroleum-biofuel for transportation– Alternative transportation energy options
•Interaction of energy chains– Electricity-petroleum-natural gas-biofuel-hydrogen
•Quantitative analysis of energy system– Market inertia, ripple effect across sources and
chains
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Issues for Next Cycle: Science
• Greater analysis of science for energy solutions– Achieve revolutionary breakthroughs, not evolutionary
increments: factor of 10, not 10%– Look beyond existing technology-centric directions
• New approaches for managing the basic-applied interface– Establish greater synergy– Maintain separate identities
• Emphasize discovery science distinct from use-inspired basic research– Advance the frontier - small, fast, complex, . . .– New knowledge unexpected new uses– What are the grand challenges of discovery science?
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Basic Science VisionIncremental advances in the state of the art of existing energy technologies will not meet the nation's future energy and environmental security challenges.
Revolutionary innovations are needed, both in the energy technologies themselves and in our understanding of the fundamental science that enables their operation.
Vibrant fundamental science programs generate revolutionary innovations in two ways: (i) by discovery-driven advances in the frontier of knowledge, enabling new paradigms and unexpected opportunities for disruptive energy technologies, and (ii) by use-inspired research targeting specific areas where incomplete understanding blocks technological progress. DOE should maintain strong programs in both areas that sustain US leadership in science.
Basic-applied interactions are a fertile source of innovation. DOE should develop new ways to stimulate translational research and creative connections across the basic-applied interface.
The role of science
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Basic Science Frontiers High Performance Materials
Science at the nanoscale, especially low-dimensional systems
Dynamics of physical, chemical and biological phenomena
Emergent behavior in complex systems, from high Tc superconductors to pattern formation in chemical solutions to self-assembly and self-repair
Catalysis and control of chemical transformation
Molecular to systems level understanding of living systems
Biomimetics and photobiological energy conversion
Molecular scale understanding of interfacial science, separations, and permeability in physical systems and membranes
New Tools for:
In situ molecular characterization
Theory/Computation/Numerical Applications
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Back up slides
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Industrial Technologies
Our analyses focused on “innovation strands” augmented by cross-cutting “system” assessments
Future Liquid Fuels Systems Assessment
Cross-cutting / Enabling Science and Technology Opportunities & Challenges
Future Electricity Systems Assessment
Future Hydrogen & Gaseous Fuels Systems Assessment
Distribution Use
Advanced Building Systems
Fuel Gridof the Future
Electric Gridof the Future
Hydrogen & GasInfrastructure
Vehicle Technologies
Supply
Fusion Energy
Advanced Nuclear
Zero Emission FossilElectric Generation
Alternative Liquid Fuels
Bioenergy/Chemicals
Renewable Energy
“From the LWG Report”
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Goal 1: Energy Supply DiversityTransportation efficiency & fuel switching offer the most significant opportunities to reduce oil imports
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Alternative Liquids Biofuels VehicleTechnologies
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drill
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Btus
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Alternative Liquids -Feedstocks
Industrial End-Use
Qu
adri
llio
n B
tus
2025 Petroleum Demand51 Quads Additional opportunities exist to
offset industrial demand
Transportation37 quads
73%
Other3 quads
6%
Industrial11 quads
21%Three options offer the most
significant opportunities to offset transportation fuel demands on
imported petroleum
Maximum Market Potential
Maximum Market Potential
*
* Alternative liquids outlook is based on current industry estimates
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
-100.0
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400.0
Em
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Alternative Liquids *
Bioethanol *
Emerging fuel options require assessment on a
Life Cycle Basis
* Vectors are directionally correct Magnitude
estimated pending life cycle emission analysis
Goal 2: Significant reductions in CO2 emissions require a broad suite of options
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50.0
100.0
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Advanced Nuclear Near ZeroEmission Fossil
Renewables Buildings Industry Transportation
Em
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carb
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CO2 from Electricity Offsets CO2 from direct fuel or feedstock use
Projected 2025 Carbon Emissions
In million metric tons (mmt)
Point of Use Basis
2152 mmt carbon
Non Trans Fuel & Feedstocks 556 mmtElectricity
889 mmt Transportation, 706 mmt
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Options for addressing CO2 also offer benefits in reducing the demand for natural gas imports
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1.0
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4.5
Buildings Industry Adv Nuclear ZEF RE
Qua
drill
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Btu
s
Natural Gas Demand in 202525.8 Quads
Buildings9.4 quads
37%
Electric Utilities5.4 quads, 21%
Industry10.2 quads
39%
Other 0.8 quads, 3%
Alternative electric generation options offers offsets to increasing natural gas imports
Reducing commercial & industrial use of natural gas links to heating efficiency
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
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3.5
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4.5
Buildings Industry
Qua
drill
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Btu
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LWG Energy Portfolio Analysis
Basic-Applied ResearchWhat are the goals?
Translation of applications from basic to applied50% efficient quantum dot solar cellCost competitive superconducting wire
Develop disruptive approach to grand energy challengesMake an electronic switch information revolutionStore 24 GWh of electrical energy for 24 hours Personal transportation at 1/10th cost of cars
What are the attributes?Integrated basic-applied PI teamsIntegrated basic-applied management teamsTap the best scientists/engineers: innovative thinkers, receptive to new ideas and peopleObjectives are innovation driven, not time-scale drivenStable program: 10+ year lifeInternational network of workshops and visitors to create community and stimulate fresh perspectivePeriodic review by top scientists/engineers outside DOE Examine other innovation machines for organizational inspiration: DARPA, Bell Labs, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Xerox Parc