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Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia
DPA / VBT Visit
30th MayHotel Moskva, Belgrade
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2
Key observations
GDP growth of Serbia is related to trends in the EUAfter strong growth in period 2000-2005, in last six years
average growth was 2.1%
Inflation is like a family memberEconomy functions with inflationary expectations higher
than in the EU, average for last six years 6.7%
The EU is a key foreign trade partner of SerbiaTrade deficit is a traditional problem
Unemployment is highLow labour costs
Budget deficit linked with IMF stand-by agreement
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GDP and growth
3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 est. 2013 est.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
3.7
5.5
3.9
-3.5
1
1.9
0.5
3
Source: National Bank of Serbia and the IMF
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GDP (in €, mln)
4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011€ 15,000
€ 17,000
€ 19,000
€ 21,000
€ 23,000
€ 25,000
€ 27,000
€ 29,000
€ 31,000
€ 33,000
€ 35,000
23,305
28,468
32,668
28,957
28,006
31,140
Source: National Bank of Serbia and Ministry of Finance
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Inflation (%)
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 est. 2013 est.0
2
4
6
8
10
12
5.95.4
10.1
3.6
8.6
7
4.1 4.3
Source: National Bank of Serbia and the IMF
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Foreign trade
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
6,9498,686
10,1578,478
10,07011,470
-11,971
-16,016
-18,843
-13,577-14,838
-16,823
Exports of goods and services (in € million) Imports of goods and services (in € million)Source: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office
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Trade deficit and GDP
7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Current account balance (in EUR million) as % of GDPSource: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office
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Unemployment
8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
5
10
15
20
25
20.9
18.1
13.6
16.1
19.2
23
Source: Statistical Office
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Labour costs in €
9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q12012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
259.5
347.6358.4
337.9330.06
372.5357.579587135503
Source: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office
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Public debt
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
37.6
30.929.2
34.5
44.0
47.7
RS public debt (external + internal, in % of GDP)Source: National Bank of Serbia
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11
What could it mean for you?
Recovery of the local market slow
Inflation less of a risk than before
(Gradual) depreciation of local currency
Costs of labour to remain competitive
Calculating FX risks when selling to Serbia
Fiscal policy reforms necessary
Reduction of subsidies