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Mainland South Florida Tropical Briefing
Mon Sept 27 10 AM
Rob Molleda
National Weather Service
Miami/South Florida
Forecast Office
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Area of Disturbed Weather in Caribbean Sea
Remnant of
Matthew
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Deep Moisture
EXTREMELY HIGH atmospheric moisture content
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• Low pressure south of Keys moving northward.
• Caribbean moisture surges northward
• Purple and red colors indicate high 6-hour rainfall amounts of over 3 inches
Model Forecast: 8 AM Wednesday
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Model Forecast:8 PM Wednesday
• Low moves north of area.
• Moisture lingers over area, although heaviest rainfall begins to shift north of region.
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Rainfall Forecasts
8 AM Tuesday – 8 AM Wednesday
• Average of 3-4 inches over much of South Florida.
• Isolated areas typically could see as much as twice that amount.
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Rainfall Forecasts
8 AM Wednesday – 8 AM Thursday
• Average of 2-3 inches over eastern half of South Florida.
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Summary
• Tropical (or subtropical) system may or may not develop south of Florida.
• Regardless of what type of system impacts our area, the main threat is for torrential rainfall and potential for significant flooding.
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Rainfall Forecasts
• Model forecasts and human-adjusted forecasts suggest 2-day average rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches over parts of South Florida from 8 AM Tue to 8 AM Thu.
• This type of weather pattern favors development of heavy rain bands which could produce even higher rainfall values.
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Impacts• Flooding: Significant flooding entering
structures is possible, especially in historically flood-prone areas.
• Timing: Late Tuesday through Wednesday night.
• Too early to pin down with high confidence areas most likely to receive worst flooding.
• Present indications are that the SE Florida metro areas may be more likely to see greatest flood potential.
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Impacts
• Flood Watch may be issued early tomorrow. This means that the potential exists for significant flooding affecting property.
• Tornado threat may be higher than normal, but right now not our primary concern.
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Questions?
Thank you for your time!
National Weather Service
Miami/South Florida Forecast Office