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2nd Quarter 2004
Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States
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The United States Employment Outlook
ContentsUnited States Employment Outlook 2
The Americas Employment Outlook 14
Global Employment Outlook 16
About the Survey 18
About Manpower 19
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know Net EmploymentOutlookSeasonally Adjusted
% % % % % %
3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 74th Quarter 2003 22 11 62 5 11 10
1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 13
2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
Employment Outlook of 22%. Sixty-two percent of the
employers polled anticipate no change in hiring activity,
and 4% are uncertain of the job outlook at their companies.
The employment outlook has not been this promising
since the first quarter of 2001, according to the
seasonally adjusted survey results.
The job forecast for the second quarter is a steady
improvement from the first quarter of 2004 and is nearly
twice as strong as it was last year at this time.
Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with
employers across the United States to measure
anticipated employment trends between April and June
2004. All participants were asked, How do you
anticipate total employment at your location to change in
the three months to the end of June 2004 as compared
to the current quarter?
Of the US employers that were surveyed, 28% expect
an increase in hiring in the second quarter, while 6%
plan to decrease staff levels. This creates a Net
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Regional ComparisonsMidwest
Net EmploymentOutlook
Seasonally AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Don t Know
%%%%% % All Industries 29 6 62 3 23 19
Construction 48 5 42 5 43 23
Education 913 76 2 4 5
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 8 69 3 12 11Manufacturing Durables 32 7 59 2 25 21
Manufacturing Non-Durables 28 5 63 4 23 22
Mining 0 0 100 0 -40
Public Administration 27 11 58 4 16 6
Services 27 5 66 2 22 18Transportation & Public Utilities 21 677 5 14 11Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 5 62 3 25 23
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.
Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 29%
anticipate an increase in hiring in the second quarter,
while 6% expect a decrease in employment activity.
Thus, the Net Employment Outlook is 23%. This marks a
notable surge in hiring expectations from the first quarter
and a year ago. According to the seasonally adjusted
survey results, the job forecast for the Midwest has not
been as positive in more than three years.
With the exception of Mining, employers in each of the
10 industry sectors surveyed plan to offer more job
opportunities in the second quarter, compared with the
first period of 2004. The most quarter-over-quarter job
gains are predicted in the Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing sector.
Midwest employers are more optimistic in their hiring
estimates than they were a year ago in every industry
sector but Finance/Insurance/Real Estate where job
growth is expected to be flat. A significant increase in
employment prospects over last year is anticipated for
the Mining, Construction, Durable and Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturing, and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.
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Net EmploymentOutlook
Seasonally Adjusted
Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know
% % % % % %
All Industries 26 8 61 5 1718
Construction 38 553 4 35 28
Education 13 8 75 4 5 7
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 27 6 61 6 21 19
Manufacturing Durables 26 8 61 5 18 16
Manufacturing Non-Durables 26 10 16 14
Mining 0 25 -25 -26
Public Administration 16 9 7 5
Services 26 5 21 18
Transportation & Public Utilities 23 12
62
75
70
64
61
2
0
5
5
4 11 12
Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 10 55 6 19 21
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Northeast
The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.
Twenty-six percent of employers surveyed in the
Northeast report an increase in hiring intentions, and 8%
forecast a decrease, resulting in a Net Employment
Outlook of 18%. Although employers in the Northeastexpect to offer ample job opportunities, the outlook for
this area is not as strong as the other three US regions,
on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the Northeast, the
second quarter is expected to bring slightly more job
prospects than first quarter and even better prospects
than last year at this time.
Employers in this region project a considerable increase
in Construction hiring from the first quarter of this year.
They anticipate moderate job growth in the Durable
and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public
Administration sectors. Hiring is expected to be stable inthe Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade
and Education sectors.
Mining employers in the Northeast report a substantial
reduction in hiring activity, compared with last quarter
and last year. Employers in the other nine industry
sectors expect stronger year-over-year hiring, particularly
in Construction, Transportation/Public Utilities ,
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration.
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South
Net EmploymentOutlook
Seasonally Adjusted
Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know
% % % % % %
All Industries 29 5 62 4 24 22
Construction 41 523 4 38 30Education 15 6 77 2 9 11
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 22 4 68 6 18 18
Manufacturing Durables 33 7 56 4 26 22
Manufacturing Non-Durables 25 6 65 4 19 17
Mining 29 8 61 2 21 21
Public Administration 19 752 4 17 14
Services 31 5 59 5 26 22
Transportation & Public Utilities 25 674 4 21 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 6 59 5 24 24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
In the South, 29% of employers surveyed plan to increase
hiring activity, while 5% expect fewer employment
opportunities. This creates a Net Employment Outlook
of 24%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the job outlookfor the South is the strongest of the four US regions,
as it has been for seven of the past eight quarters.
Employers in the South anticipate a moderate
improvement in hiring over last quarter and last year
at this time.
A boost in hiring from first quarter and a year ago is
anticipated across all 10 industry sectors in the South.
The expected increases are most significant in the
Mining, Transportation/Public Utilities andWholesale/Retail Trade sectors. Finance/Insurance/Real
Estate and Education employers predict the most modest
job growth quarter over quarter and year over year.
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West
Net EmploymentOutlook
Seasonally AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Don t Know
% % % % % %
All Industries 30 8 55 7 22 20
Construction 41 7 47 5 34 26
Education 17 11 59 13 6 5
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 25 5 61 9 20 20
Manufacturing Durables 31 9 52 8 22 17
Manufacturing Non-Durables 30 8 56 6 22 19
Mining 12 0 88 0 12 10
Public Administration 22 15 57 6 7 3
Services 36 5 52 7 31 27
Transportation & Public Utilities 25 8 60 7 17 20
Wholesale & Retail Trade 31 9 53 7 22 23
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
Of the employers surveyed in the West, 30% plan an
increase in employment, while 8% predict that hiring
activity will decline. Thus, the Net Employment Outlook
is 22%. When seasonal variations are removed from thedata, this represents a slight improvement in hiring
intentions from last quarter and a moderate
improvement from last year at this time.
Modest job growth over first quarter is anticipated in six
of the 10 industry sectors in the West, including
Construction, Durable and Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education. Hiring
expectations are even stronger in the Services sector
where employers foresee a considerable increase in
hiring, compared with the previous quarter and last yearat this time.
For the third consecutive quarter, minimal employment
activity is expected among employers in the Public
Administration sector. Mining and Finance/Insurance/
Real Estate are the only sectors in the West in which
employers estimate a decrease in job opportunities
compared with the previous quarter.
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Sector ComparisonsFor the second consecutive quarter, hiring activity is
expected to increase across all 10 industry sectors on
a seasonally adjusted basis.
Employer optimism regarding second quarter hiring is
most apparent within the Construction industry where
hiring intentions have not been so strong in 26 years.
A strong hiring pace is also anticipated in the Durable
and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services
and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.
Education and Public Administration employers
predict the fewest employment opportunities for
the second quarter.
Construction
Education
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
Manufacturing Durables
Manufacturing Non-Durables
Mining
Public Administration
Services
Transportation & Public Utilities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
17
28
78
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
1514
139
25
16
21
2323
23
1920
16
18
16
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
38
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Construction
-20-15-10
-505
10152025303540
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Second quarter job prospects in Construction are the
strongest of all of the industry sectors. Construction
employers are more optimistic about hiring than they
have been since the late 1970s, according to theseasonally adjusted data. For the third consecutive
quarter, a moderate increase in hiring is expected, and
job prospects are considerably better than a year ago
at this time. Hiring expectations are strongest in the
South and weakest in the Midwest.
Education
-10
-5
0
5
10
1520
25
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Second quarter hiring intentions for the Education sector
show a continued pattern of steady job growth.
According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers
plan slight increases in the hiring pace compared to last
quarter and a year ago.
Jobs are expected to be most plentiful in the South and
fewest in the Midwest and West.
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10
Manufacturing Durable Goods
-10-505
101520253035
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
When seasonal variations are removed from the data,
Durable Goods Manufacturers expressed their
strongest hiring intentions since the first quarter of
2001. Employers expect a moderate increase in jobs
over last quarter and considerable growth compared
with a year ago.
The strongest hiring activity for this sector is expected
in the South, and employers in the Northeast anticipate
the fewest job opportunities.
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
0
5
10
15
20
25
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers report hiring
plans similar to those issued the last two quarters and
predict some job gains for the second quarter.
Employers in this sector expect a slight increase inhiring over last quarter and a moderate increase
compared with a year ago.
Job prospects are most promising in the West, with
the Northeast and South not far behind. Midwest
employers report the weakest hiring intentions in
this sector.
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Mining
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mining employers
anticipate steady job gains. The hiring pace is expected
to be consistent with last quarter but more upbeat than
a year ago at this time.
For the second quarter, hiring intentions among Mining
employers are most optimistic in the South. The least
promising job outlook for the Mining sector is in the
Northeast with significant job losses anticipated.
Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
According to the seasonally adjusted data, Non-
Durable Goods Manufacturers plan to hire at a steady
pace during the second quarter. This marks the highest
expectations in job market growth in three years for theNon-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector.
Employers report a moderate increase in jobs over last
quarter and last year at this time.
Estimated employment levels are strongest in the
Midwest and weakest in the Northeast.
-10-505
1015
202530
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
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Public Administration
-10-505
1015202530
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Services
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
The employment outlook for the Services sector
suggests healthy job market growth not seen since the
second quarter of 2001. Employers are more positive in
their hiring intentions than they were last quarter and a
year ago.
According to seasonally adjusted data, employment
opportunities will be most plentiful in the West.
Employers in the Midwest and Northeast anticipate the
fewest job openings.
Hiring plans among Public Administration employers
have fluctuated during the last two years, and
predictions for the coming quarter continue the pattern.
Modest job gains are expected when seasonal variationsare removed from the data, with more hiring expected
over last quarter and last year.
The strongest hiring activity is expected in the South,
while the fewest job opportunities are anticipated in
the West.
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Wholesale & Retail Trade
-15-10
-505
101520253035
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
Transportation & Public Utilities
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
When the seasonal variations are removed from the data,
job opportunities in Transportation/Public Utilities are
expected to return to levels last seen during the second
quarter of 2001. Hiring projections are up from lastquarter, and significantly more optimistic than last year.
Employers in the South and West anticipate the
strongest hiring activity, while those in the Midwest
expect to hire at a slower pace than the other US
regions.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the employment outlook
in the Wholesale/Retail Trade industry is healthier than it
has been in the last three years. Hiring expectations
continue their steady climb in the second quarter.
A modest increase in job prospects from last quarter is
anticipated, as is significant job growth over last year.
There is little variation in the employment outlook
across the regions. The most job opportunities are
predicted in the South, and similar gains are expected
in the Midwest and West. Slightly less hiring activity is
estimated in the Northeast.
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Sector Comparisonsthe second quarter, compared to the first quarter.
In Mexico, employers in the Industry sector have
predicted quarter-on-quarter improvements. Mexican
employers in the Services sector are reporting a veryslight fall of 1 percentage point in anticipated hiring
intentions over last quarter.
2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels, Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.
Canada
%
25
Net Employment Outlook
Industry Services
%
-1
Q1 2004
%
2
Q1 2004
%
23
United States 218 624
Mexico 1111 1218
Q2 2004 Q2 2004
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
Industry and Services 2. Positive hiring activity is
expected across the region in both categories.Canadian and American employers in both sectors
anticipate a considerable increase in hiring activity for
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Global Employment OutlookOver 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated
employment trends between April and June 2004.
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change
Americas Q1 to Q2 2004
Canada 23
Mexico 3
United States
Q1 2004
%
1
11
7 (13) 1
Q2 2004
%
24
14
22 (20) 1 15 (7) 1
Net Employment Outlook
Asia Pacific
Australia 3
Hong Kong 4
Japan 17New Zealand
Q2 2004
%
18
16
2039
Q1 2004
%
15
12
3
Singapore 86 2
Qtr on Qtr Change
Q1 to Q2 2004
Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change
Europe Q1 to Q2 2004
Austria 12
Belgium 2
France -1
Germany 10
Ireland 6
Netherlands 0
Norway -3
Spain 0
Sweden 9
UK 7 (-3) 1
Italy
Q1 2004
%
-1
7
5
-14
3
4
10
9
8
9 (16) 1
0
Q2 2004
%
11
9
4
-4
9
4
7
9
17
16 (13) 1
5 5
1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for the UKand United States.
Regional and International ComparisonsWhen seasonal variations are removed from the US and
UK data, the UK results are positive, with a steady
outlook for the three months ahead and prospects in the
US are the most optimistic since first quarter of 2001.
Employers in 18 of the 19 countries surveyed are
anticipating a positive employment outlook for the
second quarter of 2004. Notable improvements in job
prospects are expected in the US, Japan, Canada,
Austria and Sweden. Germany, despite having reported
a negative Net Employment Outlook, is showing
improved results.
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Sector Comparisons
2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels, Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.
Canada
%
25
Net Employment Outlook
Industry Services
Americas
%
-1
Q1 2004
%
2
Q1 2004
%
23
United States 218 624
Mexico 1111 1218
Q2 2004 Q2 2004
%%
Japan 3 20
Net Employment Outlook
Industry Services
Asia Pacific
%
3
Q1 2004 Q1 2004
%
Australia 16 1813 19
Hong Kong 14 172 13
21
New Zealand 40 37Singapore 9 9-3 5
Q2 2004 Q2 2004
%%
Ireland 612 8-14
Italy 14 6-3
Net Employment OutlookIndustry Services
Europe
%
Q1 2004 Q1 2004
%
France 4 6 43Germany -13 -3-16 -6
Austria 62-2 17
Belgium 8 95 9
Norway 122 96
Netherlands 42 66
UK 912 168
Sweden 917 187Spain 10 99 9
Q2 2004 Q2 2004
Norway and the Netherlands are the least.
Similarly, in the Services category, job prospects are
expected to be positive in all countries with only
Germany reporting a negative Net Employment
Outlook. Strongest prospects for Services are expected
in New Zealand, Canada, United States and Japan.
Within this section, we outline variation in the Net
Employment Outlook across two broad categories:
Industry and Services. All of the countries surveyed,
except Germany, are predicting positive hiring activityin both categories. Employers in the Industry category
in New Zealand, Canada, United States and Japan
are most optimistic while employers in Germany,
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About the Survey The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedquarterly to measure employers intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforce duringthe next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40
years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employmentactivity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and areaof focus.
Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is theonly forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecastemployment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveysand studies focus on retrospective data to report on whatoccurred in the past.
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derivedall of its information from a single question.
Independent: The survey is conducted with a representativesample of employers from throughout the countries in which itis conducted. The survey participants are not derived fromManpower s customer base.
Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than35,000 public and private employers across 19 nationaleconomies to measure anticipated employment trends eachquarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed acrossspecific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
Methodology The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using
a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 19countries and territories where the survey is currently conductedincludes Manpower s Market Intelligence team; the Research &Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group an independentoperating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and GrupoIDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.2%.
In the United States, the national survey is conducted byManpower s North American Market Intelligence Team andincludes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, themargin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.
Survey Question All employers participating in the survey worldwide are askedthe same question, How do you anticipate total employmentat your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2004 as compared to the current quarter?
Net Employment Outlook Throughout this report, we use the term Net EmploymentOutlook . This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity andsubtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect tosee a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.
The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.
Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for theUnited States and United Kingdom to provide additional insightinto the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to
review the data without the employment fluctuations thatnormally occur at the same time each year, thus providing aclearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to addseasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in thefuture, as more historical data is compiled.
Sectors The industry sectors that are reported for each country in thisreport are representative of the local economy. In some areasof the report, we have reported the data in two broad sectorcategories: Industry and Services. These categories areconsistent with standards of other respected international datasources. The Industry category includes sectors such as:construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. TheServices category includes wholesale and retail trade;restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other businessservices and public administration.
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History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
1966 Manpower s UK operation launches the equivalent of the United States survey, naming the report theQuarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The surveyadopts the same forward-looking research format as theUnited States survey and is the first of its kind inEurope.
1976 2nd generation of Manpower s Employment OutlookSurvey launched in the United States and Canada.Research methodology is updated to evolve withadvancements in the field of market research.
2002 Manpower UK s Quarterly Survey of EmploymentProspects is updated to adopt an enhanced researchmethodology. Manpower s operations in Mexico andIreland launch the survey in their respective countries.
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium,Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain,Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch theManpower Employment Outlook Survey.
About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in theemployment services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to meet their needs throughout the employment andbusiness cycle. The company specializes in permanent,
temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;training; career transition and organizational consulting services.Manpower s worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countriesand territories enables the company to meet the needs of its400,000 customers per year, including small and medium sizeenterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world s largestmultinational corporations. The focus of Manpower s work is onraising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their corebusiness activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, thecompany operates under the brand names of RightManagement Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Streetand Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available atwww.manpower.com.
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrialand contact center personnel. Under the ManpowerProfessional brand, the company places contract professionalson assignment in areas such as information technology,scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. Moreinformation about Manpower s US operation can be found atwww.us.manpower.com.
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Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com
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