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Mapping Stocking Rates in Scotland: Integrating JAC and IACS data
Keith Matthews, Dave Miller, James Sample and Sarah Dunn
Agricultural Statistics User Conference, July 2013, Edinburgh
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OutlineDatasets
Calculations
Complications
Outputs
Applications Future CAP Activity Measures
Designated Sites
Water Quality
Woodland Expansion
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Datasets IACS
SG-RPID dataset derived from SAF forms - claims
>5M ha coverage in 2009, increasing
Linked to field mapping (GIS)
Land use, ownership, rentals etc.
JAC Livestock numbers (and several other items for related projects)
Other datasets Common Grazings – beyond those in IACS
National Forest Inventory (decadal)
Linkage – holding numbers, FID-Holding-BRN
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IACS+ Examples
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SR CalculationForage area – land use classification (IACS crop codes)
Livestock numbers – simplified classes – cattle, sheep and deer
Conversion to livestock units (LSU) – weightings Cow-calf = 1.0
Ewe-lamb = 0.12
Deer = 0.3
Simplification – JAC will support much more detailed calculations – see SAC Farm Management Handbook
SR = LSU/Forage Area
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Complications & CompromisesIACS + JAC
JAC (LU and Stock)+ IACS
Crofters + JAC – shares, apportionments and in-bye
JAC + JAC - not mapped – some limits on rentals data, type not specified.
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Rental IssuesRentals only accounted for in seasonal SAF sheets
Business not holding
But - mismatch ~150,000 ha - rental-in by non IACS – no matching record for the rental-out
Rental-in only specified as business not holding (issue when multi-holding business – which livestock to associate)
In raw IACS data some coding issues, e.g. claims for all area even though renting records exist. Rules based clean up, limiting to GIS areas, rental-in prioritised as most reliable.
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Limitations Business level
Single date
Averages over all grazing land – mixed businesses particularly challenging – e.g. SW dairy and Highland sheep in separate holdings
Other factors may mitigate or exacerbate any consequences of stocking – e.g. availability of housing
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OutputsNational SR map
Regional or sectoral breakdowns
Relationships with other variables
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Future CAP: Activity Requirements Example of an SR base activity requirement
SR value was 0.12 lsu/ha
Used scale-back from Pack Inquiry not the guillotine of the agreed regulation
Significant effects
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Designated AreasDiscussion of activity measures for Pillar 1 CAP and Areas of
Natural Constraint in Pillar 2
Range of SRs for combinations of designations
Unmapped area significant
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Water Quality: Nitrates Directive Review• SR estimates spatial distribution of manure
production• IACS data used to infer application rates of
inorganic fertilisers• Used as inputs to a spatially distributed nitrate
leaching model (NIRAMS II)• Map surface and groundwater monitoring as
one strand of evidence in the 2013 Nitrates Directive review
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Woodland Expansion Advisory Group10,000 ha per annum afforestation aspiration
Consequences for livestock numbers
Regional and land capability break-downof SR areas
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ConclusionsFeasible – useful despite some limits
Improvements – a move to holding basis would eliminate cross-holding averages – rentals issues can be solved
New cattle movement datasets from CTS now underpin JAC so more sophistication possible here
Move beyond SR – lifecycle of livestock within EPIC exposure to environments and linkage to disease
Future CAP activity criteria – if SR based, then a far more rigorous set of calculations will be needed
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ContactsDr Keith Matthews
The James Hutton InstituteCraigiebuckler, AberdeenEmail: [email protected]: http://www.hutton.ac.uk/staff/keith-matthews
Dr James SampleEmail: [email protected]: http://www.hutton.ac.uk/staff/james-sample