Download - Market Health
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Market HealthInvestor’s Business Daily New York City Meetup 8.28.13
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For Those of You Who Need a Disclaimer…
We Care…But You Should Care More
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Market in Correction
SYRIATAPERINGSEQUESTEROBAMACAREUNEMPLOYMENT
DEBT CEILING
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Four Year Bull Market
NASDAQ (weekly)
Short Choppy Rallies 2010 and 2011.
Bull Market Begins 3/12/09 With a 31 Week Rally.
2012 Has Two Distinct Rallies
2013 Mostly up with one pullback
?
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Tracking the Last Rally
Rally Health Follow Through Day: 7/11/13 Failed 8/15/13
Day 2 (7/15/13): No Professional Distribution◦ Should not have distribution in the first two days◦ Had a distribution cluster starting day three
Day 20 (8/8/13): Price Progress◦ Money making rallies on average show advances of 5.5% or higher by day 20.◦ At 20 days, rally gained only 2.53%
Day 40 (9/5/13): Get Off Margin◦ Recent rallies have lasted 8 to 10 week◦ N/A
Day 50 (9/19/13): No New Buys◦ Most of the good merchandise comes out -2 to +4 weeks from the start of a new
rally. By the 10th week you have to ask why this stock didn’t participate until now.
◦ N/A
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The Markets
NYSE New Lows beat New Highs
NYSE stocks above 200 DMA very weak and falling
A/D for S&P weak
NYSE New Lows give early clue to leave
Rally day-looking for a Follow-Thru
Kerry speech halts uptrend
NYSE New Lows expand
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The Markets
NYSE New Highs vs New Lows
New Lows Expand
New Highs Dry Up
FTD
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The Markets
NASDAQ New Highs vs New Lows
FTD
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World Markets
Market APR MAY JUN JUL AUG
Nasdaq 8.3 17.0 10.9 18.5 18.5
S&P 500 10.7 16.0 11.3 18.7 14.3
Germany -1.4 7.2 1.1 6.4 6.7
Brazil -3.8 -1.2 -21.7 -19.3 -24.0
Russia -14.2 -7.9 -17.1 -9.0 -13.5
India -1.0 1.8 -13.0 -5.2 -27.2
China Hong KongSmall CapBig Cap
2.3 -1.6-11.0
8.1 3.9-5.8
-5.5-10.4-21.6
-1.3 -3.6-14.2
-4.0 -3.0-13.3
Mexico 3.8 -2.5 -14.6 -4.1 -11.4
Germany and Europe are stabilizing
India, South Africa and Brazil are melting down
Australia and South Korea hurt by Japan’s policies
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Commodities
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Food
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Fuel Prices
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The Big Picture
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NASDAQ
Sucker’s Rally
Clustered DDs
NASDAQ FTD
NASDAQ Rally without a FTD
Bernanke Speech
New Rally Attempt Undercut
Rally Fails
Kerry Speech
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S&P 500
Regains 50 on low volume
50 Day support broken
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IBD Mutual Fund Index
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Russell 2000 (Weekly)
Small Caps Lead
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IBD 85/85 Index (Weekly)
CAN SLIM Stocks Remain
Strong
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IBD 50 (Weekly)
RS Line Remains Strong
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Sectors (Year to Date)
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Sectors (Since 7/11/13 FTD)
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Industry Groups
Broad and diverse set of groups in the top 40.
The bottom 40 are mostly commodity, utility and defensive stocks.
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Sector Leaders
All of the Sector Leaders are in 7 sectors
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Sector Leaders
Sector Leaders have expanded from 15 last month to 18 this month
Half of these are near a buy point:
STOCK BPACT 133.10EVR 44.63FLT 100.97OCN 52.35PRAA 53.09PCLN 926.50QCOR 66.92SSNC 34.54VRX 94.32
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What to Do Now
If You Haven’t Already Have your plan on paper Cut out losers and laggards Sell any stock that doesn’t have
true “Model Book” characteristics Set stops on any remaining
position and sell if they’re hit without hesitation
Raise Cash
Set Up Your Wish List
Watch for pullbacks and tight areas
Watch for new bases Watch for high RS stocks Don’t forget about stocks you had
to sell Don’t get complacent
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Homework
Rigor and the Pursuit of Excellence
Success: A Lot of Little Things Done Well
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Be Careful Out There