INTERLAKE
REGIONAL POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
2013 TO 2038
M A N I T O B A
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Executive Summary............................................................................................ 3
Economic Region Boundary Map ..................................................................... 4
Introduction ......................................................................................................... 5
Notes to Users .................................................................................................... 6
Highlights ............................................................................................................ 7
AppendicesA. Methodology .............................................................................................. 9B. Base Population Adjustment ...................................................................... 15C. Regional Results ........................................................................................ 17D. Glossary ..................................................................................................... 37
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Population: o The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) projects Interlake's population will reach
98,100 residents on July 1, 2020. o Compared to MBS' estimate of 92,900 residents for July 1, 2013, Interlake's population
is expected to increase by 5,200 individuals (5.6%) by July 1, 2020.
• Age Structure: o MBS projects that on July 1, 2020, half of Interlake's population will be older than 44.3
years, while the other half will be younger. o Children aged 14 or under are expected to comprise 15.8% of Interlake's July 1, 2020
population. Individuals aged 15 to 64 are projected to account for 62.7% of Interlake's residents, while the remaining 21.5% are predicted to be aged 65 or over.
• Assumption Overview: o MBS assumes regional fertility will be constant and there will be moderate increases in
life expectancy at birth. MBS assumes migration flows, with the exception of intraprovincial migration, will be constant from 2020 onward.
Component By 2015 By 2020
Total Fertility Rate 1.89 1.89Life Expectancy - Male 78.0 78.8Life Expectancy - Female 82.4 82.7Intraprovincial In^ 3,970 3,780Intraprovincial Out^ 3,300 3,150Net Intraprovincial 670 630Interprovincial In 420 380Interprovincial Out 570 460Net Interprovincial -150 -80Immigration 110 140 Emigration 50 50 Net International 70 90Other International* 50 60Total Net Migration† 640 700 ^Intraprovincial migration is not constant, but follows a natural log trend from 2020 onward. *Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. †Total Net Migration is the sum of Net Intraprovincial, Net Interprovincial, Net International and Other International Migration.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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Mafeking
Grand Rapids
Gypsumville
Lundar
Eriksdale
Ashern
Moosehorn
AlonsaMcCreary
Glenella
Fisher Branch
Arborg
Riverton
Hodgson
Berens River
Bloodvein
Powerview-Pine Falls
St Georges
Great Falls
Lac duBonnet
Sprague
Rennie
Bissett
Brandon
PortagePrairiela
WINNIPEG
Roblin
Russell
BinscarthAngusville
Rossburn
Inglis
Grandview
GilbertPlains
OchreRiver
Ste. Rosedu Lac
Virden
Reston
Oak Lake
Alexander
RiversKenton
Oak RiverMiniota
Strathclair Newdale
ShoalLake
McAuley
St-Lazare
Elkhorn
Birtle
Foxwarren
Melita
PiersonWaskada
Napinka
Boissevain
Minto
HartneyTilson
Swan RiverMinitonas
Bowsman
The Pas
Dauphin
EthelbertFork River
Rorketon
Souris
DeloraineKillarney
Nesbitt
Wawanesa
Belmont
Cartwright
Holland
Notre Dame
TreherneSt Claude
Elm Creek
Roland
Somerset
Pilot Mound
Crystal City
WinklerManitou
Miami
Dunrea
Neepawa
Arden
ForestStation
Minnedosa
Rapid City
Morden
PlumCoulee
Altona
Gretna
Carman
Emerson
Morris
St. Pierre-Jolys
Letellier Dominion City Vita
LaBroquerie
Oakbank
Dugald
Stonewall
Rosser
Teulon
Inwood
Woodlands
BirdsHill
Hadashville
Niverville
St.Adolphe
Lorette
Ste. Anne
White-mouth
Ellie
St. Laurent
Starbuck
Sanford
Gimli
SelkirkEast
Selkirk
Steinbach
Beausejour
Lake
Cedar
Winnipegosis
Lake
Lake
Manitoba
Winnipeg
Lake
Dauphin
Lake
Winnipegosis
Hamiota
Erickson
Glenboro
Carberry
Gladstone
MacGregor
Langruth
Assiniboine
River
Red
Riv
er
Cartography by: Manitoba Conservation
GeoManitoba MAN 2438
EDWARD
PIPESTONE
ARCHIE
ELLICE
RUSSELL
SHELLMOUTH-BOULTON
RIVER
SHELL
RIVER
SWAN
HILLS-BURG
SILVER
CREEK
WALLACE
ALBERT
ARTHUR
MINIOTA
BIRTLE
MINITONAS
GRANDVIEW
ROSSBURN
SHOALLAKE
HAMIOTA
WOODWORTH
SIFTON
CAMERON
BRENDA
WIN-CHESTER
BLAN-SHARD
ETHELBERT
GILBERTPLAINS
STRATH-CLAIR
DALY
WHITEHEAD
GLENWOOD
WHITEWATER
MORTON
SASKAT-CHEWAN
HARRISON
DAUPHIN
MOSSEY RIVER
WILLIAM
ODANAH
ELTON
OAKLAND
CORNWALLIS
RIVER-SIDE
KILLARNEY-TURTLE
MOUNTAIN
STRATH-CONA
MINTO
CLAN-
RIVER
OCHRE
LAWERENCE
STE.ROSE
McCREARY
ROSE-DALE
LANGFORD
NORTH CYPRESS
SOUTH CYPRESS
ROBLIN
ARGYLE
Baldur
LANS-DOWNE
GLENELLA
VICTORIA
LOUISE
NORTH NORFOLK
WESTBOURNE
LAKEVIEW
SOUTHNORFOLK
LORNE
PEMBINA
PORTAGE La PRAIRIE
SIGLUNES
ERIKSDALE
THOMPSON
STANLEY
DUFFERIN
GREY
COLDWELL
ST.
LAURENT
WOODLANDS
ST. FRANCOIS
ROLAND
RHINELAND
CARTIER
XAVIER
ROSSER
MACDONALD
MORRIS
MONT-CALM
ROCKWOOD
BIFROST
GIMLI
ST
ANDREWS
E. ST.
PAUL
HE
AD
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W. ST.
PAUL
RIT-CHOT
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BERRY
FRANKLIN
HANOVER
SPRINGFIELD
CLEMENTS
BROKEN-
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TACHE
LA BRO-
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STE. ANNE
ST
LAC DU BONNET
WHITE-MOUTH
STUARTBURN
REYNOLDS
PINEY
MOUNTAIN
MOUNTAIN
PARK
ALONSA
GRAHAMDALE
GRAHAM-
DALE
FISHER
ARMSTRONG
ALEXANDER
KELSEY
KELSEY
PINAWA
� Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
OFFICIAL REGIONS
FOR DATA COLLECTION
INTERLAKE
NORTH
SOUTHWEST
PARKLANDS
SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTHEAST
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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INTRODUCTION
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) has used its Regional Cohort Component Model to develop this projection for Manitoba and its Economic Regions. MBS derived the base population by incorporating an adjustment for statistical anomalies in Statistics Canada's net undercoverage results. This added 16,154 individuals to Statistics Canada's estimate of Manitoba's July 2013 population (see Appendix B).
This report focuses on the Interlake region, expanding on projection data published in Manitoba's Regions - Population and Demographic Projections 2013 to 2038 (MBS 2015-3).The data in this report results from the same set of assumptions as the Medium projection scenario published in MBS' Manitoba Population and Demographic Projections 2013 to 2048 (MBS 2014-3).
This report analyzes how regional population and various components of growth are projected to change over the next 25 years, with an emphasis on the year 2020. The appendices provide additional information on the regional results, as well as the methodology used to create them. A glossary defining some of the terms used in this document is provided at the end of the publication.
The Economic Regions Manitoba is divided into eight Official Regions for Data Collection, also known as Economic Regions (see the map on page 4). The following table shows the association between Manitoba's Economic Regions and its Census Divisions.
ECONOMIC REGION CENSUS BASE POPULATION NAME CODE DIVISION 2013 DISTRIBUTION (%)
Southeast 10 1, 2, 12 110,100 8.59South Central 20 3, 4 64,400 5.02Southwest 30 5, 6, 7, 15 111,800 8.72North Central 40 8, 9, 10 50,200 3.92Winnipeg 50 11 717,100 55.95Interlake 60 13, 14, 18 92,900 7.25Parklands 70 16, 17, 20 41,300 3.22North 80 19, 21, 22, 23 93,700 7.31
Manitoba Total 1,281,600 100.00 Note: Population is for July 1 of given year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
Available for $15 each, MBS has prepared a report for each Economic Region providing in-depth projection results.
Further information can be obtained from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics by contacting Tara Newton at 204-945-2406.
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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NOTES TO USERS
Projections are not forecasts Projecting population growth and demographic change is not the same as forecasting. A forecast tells what the most likely future will be. A projection, however, attempts to establish plausible scenarios of population growth, based on assumptions made about demographic components such as fertility and mortality rates, as well as migration flows. The resulting projection is what would occur if the stated assumptions were to hold true.
Component assumptions are based on current demographic trends, which will eventually change. Making precise assumptions about the number of immigrants and the flows of people moving between provinces is an especially difficult process, since any number of external factors can easily influence these components. As the process of change is cumulative, the reliability of projections may decrease over time.
Projections are not guarantees. This possible scenario of population growth is the result of the stated projection assumptions.
Adjustment of Base Population The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics firmly maintains that due to statistical anomalies in their net undercoverage results, Statistics Canada substantially underestimated Manitoba’s May 10, 2011 population.
To mitigate this undercount, MBS developed its own series of population estimates by age, gender and Economic Region, going back to July 1, 2007.
This population projection utilises MBS' population estimate for July 1, 2013, which incorporates an additional 16,154 individuals at the Manitoba level. Appendix B provides additional detail on the age and gender distribution of the adjustment.
Census Year Notation In this report, population is provided for July 1 of the given year, while the components of population growth are provided on a Census year basis (July 1 of the given year to June 30 of the following year). Occasionally, this report makes use of Census year notation to describe the period of time being covered. For example, the period July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014 would be denoted as 2013/14.
Sex and Gender For the purposes of this report, the terms sex and gender are used interchangeably.
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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HIGHLIGHTS
MBS projects that the Interlake region's population will reach 98,100 residents on July 1, 2020.This is a total increase of 5,200 individuals, or 5.6%, from MBS' July 1, 2013 estimate. On average, the region is expected to increase by 0.8% annually, one of the more moderate growth rates among the regions.
It is expected that the Interlake will account for 7.0% of Manitoba's population on July 1, 2020, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the region's 2013 share of 7.3%.
Over the 2013 to 2020 period, MBS projects total net migration for the Interlake will be an average inflow of 660 residents per year. On average, MBS expects that the Interlake region's births will outnumber their deaths by 80 people annually.
MBS projects the Interlake’s median age (the age at which half the population is older, and half is younger) will be 44.3 years in 2020, 6.3 years higher than Manitoba as a whole. Compared to the region's 2013 level of 44.6 years, this is an expected decrease of 0.3 years. MBS anticipates the Interlake will have the second oldest median age in 2020.
Compared to the rest of the province, the Interlake's July 1, 2020 age distribution is expected to show a substantial lack of individuals under 20 and between 30 and 49. However, an excess of residents over the age of 50 is anticipated.
Children aged 14 or under are expected to comprise 15.8% of the Interlake's July 1, 2020 population.Individuals aged 15 to 64 are projected to account for 62.7%, while the remaining 21.5% of residents are predicted to be aged 65 or over.
92.9
98.1
75
85
95
105
115
125
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
Interlake Estimated & Projected PopulationEstimated Projected
Data Source: Statistics Canada (2001-2005), MBS Estimates (2006-2012), MBS Projection (2013-2038)
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population Pyramid - 2020Projected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+100+ 100+100+ 100+Interlake Non-Interlake
Data Source: MBS Projection
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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APPENDIX A
METHODOLOGY
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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METHODOLOGY
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) has used its Regional Cohort Component Model to develop this projection for Manitoba and its Economic Regions. MBS used the following assumptions to generate population and components of demographic change by single years of age and gender.
Data Sources This MBS population projection makes use of the following data sources:
• Population & Component estimates as of July 1, by age and gender for Manitoba (Statistics Canada - September 2014).
• Population & Component estimates as of July 1, by age and gender for Census Divisions (Statistics Canada - February 2014).
• Live Births and Deaths of Manitobans in Manitoba (Manitoba Vital Statistics Agency - Custom Tabulations).
• Provincial Nominee Program data (Manitoba Labour & Immigration - Custom Tabulations).
Base Population The base population estimates were derived using data available from Statistics Canada. These MBS estimates are based on the 2011 Census counts, and have been adjusted for net Census undercoverage, incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and an estimate of the demographic growth between Census day and the date of the estimate. MBS also incorporated an adjustment for statistical anomalies in Statistics Canada's net undercoverage results. This effectively added 16,154 individuals to Statistics Canada's estimate of Manitoba's July 2013 population. Appendix B provides additional information on this adjustment.
For each of Manitoba's Economic Regions, the projection model requires population for each gender by single years of age. To achieve this, MBS applied a component-cohort method to the 2006 final intercensal population estimate by age, gender and region. Components of population growth from Statistics Canada, together with a reduced estimate of the Residual Deviation were used to derive the MBS population estimates for 2013.
Fertility MBS used data from Statistics Canada and the Manitoba Vital Statistics Agency to determine the ratio of age specific fertility rates (ASFR) to the total fertility rate (TFR) for each Economic Region. Averages of the ratios for 2010 to 2012 were calculated for each region. Regional ASFR distributions were assumed to remain at these averages throughout the projection.
Taking the ratio of the TFR for a given Economic Region to the TFR for Manitoba as a whole, index rates were calculated for each region. Based on the average index for 2010 to 2012, together with Manitoba's 10 year average TFR, regional TFR assumptions were made. It was assumed that the TFR for each region would remain constant throughout the projection period.
It should be noted that Manitoba's projected TFR does not remain constant, as it is calculated using regional projection results, and is therefore influenced by regional population changes.
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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Mortality MBS constructed life tables using the average of death data covering the 2010 to 2012 period (Statistics Canada), in conjunction with population data for 2011 (Statistics Canada). In certain situations, raking was used on the death data in order to construct the life tables.
Initially, life tables for each Economic Region were created using 5-year age groups. Then, based on the life expectancy at birth results from the initial life tables, the regions were grouped together in order to calculate life tables based on single years of age.
For these projection scenarios, the groups are the same for both genders, and consist of: • Group 1 - North • Group 2 - Southwest, North Central, Winnipeg, Interlake and Parklands • Group 3 - Southeast and South Central
For each regional group, life expectancy at birth for males was assumed to increase by 0.9 years for every five years of the projection. Similarly, females were assumed to have a five-year increase of 0.5 years.
By modifying the average number of deaths in each age group by the same certain percentage, namely, the one required to achieve the desired life expectancy at birth, projected life tables were created based on the grouped life tables.
At the beginning of the projection period, the age and gender specific survival rates from the 2011 grouped life tables are used for each Economic Region. At the end of the projection period, the age and gender specific survival rates from the projected life tables are used for each Economic Region. The remaining years of the projection use linear interpolation to calculate survival rates based on the assumed growth in life expectancy at birth.
Migration Age and Gender Distributions For all migration components, an age and gender distribution for Manitoba was calculated using an average of five years of data. While distributions for all components were calculated using data from Statistics Canada, the immigration component also made use of data from Manitoba Labour & Immigration. It was assumed that the age and gender distribution for Manitoba would apply to all Economic Regions, and would remain constant throughout the projection.
Regional Distributions Regional distributions for all migration components were derived using data from Statistics Canada. For the immigration component, separate distributions were calculated for Provincial Nominees and non-Provincial Nominees. Averages over various time periods formed the basis for the projection assumptions. For 2020 onward, distributions were assumed constant for some components, while others assumed a growth trend. The regional distributions for the years 2013, 2014 and 2016 to 2019 were calculated by linear interpolation.
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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Method of Regional Migration Distribution by Component
Migration Component By 2015 ----------------------- By 2020 ----------------------
Intraprovincial (In and Out) Average Natural Log Trend (2010-2012) (2001-2012)
Interprovincial (In and Out) Average Natural Log Trend (2010-2012) (2001-2012)
Provincial Nominees Average Average (2011-2013) (2009-2013)
Non-Provincial Nominees Average Average (2011-2013) (2009-2013)
Emigration Average Average (2010-2012) (2008-2012)
Other International* Average Average (2009-2012) (2001-2012)
*Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. Due to issues with the regional net non-permanent residents for the years 2005/06 and 2010/11, those years are excluded from average calculations. Note: Projection methods using averages are constant from 2020 onward; those using the natural log trend follow the trend.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
Manitoba Migration Levels Assumptions for Manitoba's migration flows were derived using data from both Statistics Canada and Manitoba Labour & Immigration. It was assumed that with the exception of the intraprovincial migration component, levels would remain constant from 2020 onward. The migration flows for the years 2014 and 2016 to 2019 were calculated by linear interpolation.
Manitoba Projected Migration Levels by Component
Migration Component By 2015 ----------------------- By 2020 ----------------------
Intraprovincial (In and Out) 27,500 25,900^ Interprovincial In 9,300 7,700Interprovincial Out 14,000 11,500Provincial Nominees 10,700 10,700Non-Provincial Nominees 3,900 3,900Emigration 1,500 1,500Other International* 1,600 1,500*Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. ^Intraprovincial migration is not constant, but follows a natural log trend from 2020 onward.
Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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Regional Cohort Component Model Overview Start with Population At beginning of year (July 1st)
On a sex and single year of age basis, for
each Economic Region.
Manitoba is calculated from regional results.
add in Births• plus Age specific fertility rate * Population
(Females 15 to 49)
add in Net Migration • plus Immigration• minus Emigration• plus Other international migration • plus Interprovincial in • minus Interprovincial out • plus Intraprovincial in • minus Intraprovincial out
subtract Deaths • minus (1 - Survival Rate) *
(Population + Births + Net Migration) increase Age by 1 year
Results in Projected population at beginning of next year
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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APPENDIX B
BASE POPULATION ADJUSTMENT
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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BASE POPULATION ADJUSTMENT
The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics firmly maintains that due to statistical anomalies in their net undercoverage results, Statistics Canada substantially underestimated Manitoba’s May 10, 2011 population.
To mitigate this undercount, MBS applied an upward adjustment of 16,154 individuals to Manitoba's total population. MBS' estimates for Interlake incorporate an upward adjustment of 820 people for July 1, 2013.
2013 Population Estimates by Selected Age Group - Interlake
Age Statistics Manitoba Bureau Population AdjustmentGroup Canada of Statistics People Percent (%)
0-4 4,550 4,650 100 2.2 (4.9%) (5.0%) (0.1 points)
5-17 14,830 14,630 -200 -1.3 (16.1%) (15.7%) (-0.4 points)
18-24 8,470 8,900 430 5.1 (9.2%) (9.6%) (0.4 points)
18 & Over 72,730 73,650 920 1.3 (79.0%) (79.2%) (0.2 points)
15-64 60,730 61,110 380 0.6 (65.9%) (65.8%) (-0.1 points)
55-64 13,950 14,280 330 2.4 (15.1%) (15.4%) (0.3 points)
65 & Over 16,030 16,490 460 2.9 (17.4%) (17.7%) (0.3 points)
65-74 9,440 9,670 230 2.4 (10.2%) (10.4%) (0.2 points)
75-84 4,750 4,920 170 3.6 (5.2%) (5.3%) (0.1 points)
85 & Over 1,830 1,890 60 3.3 (2.0%) (2.0%) (0.0 points)
All Ages 92,120 92,940 820 0.9Note: Population is for July 1 of given year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Numbers in brackets refer to an age group's percent share of total, or the change, in percentage points, thereof.
Data Source: MBS Estimates and Statistics Canada
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
4 &Under
10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100 &Over
People
Base Population Adjustment*By Age Group: July 1, 2013
InterlakeMales Females
Data Source: MBS Estimates and Statistics Canada*Defined as MBS estimate minus Statistics Canada estimate.
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
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APPENDIX C
REGIONAL RESULTS
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
InterlakeDemographic Statistics
Demographic Estimated ProjectedComponent 2003 2008 2013 2018 2020 2023 2028 2038
Population (July 1) 86,354 89,457 92,900 96,500 98,100 100,800 105,300 112,900Change 1 621 689 720 800 900 900 760Change (%) 1 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7Births 772 789 880 1,050 1,130 1,230 1,280 1,230Deaths 703 749 840 940 970 1,030 1,120 1,290Natural Increase 69 40 40 120 160 200 150 -60Intraprovincial In 4,397 3,829 3,990 3,860 3,780 3,750 3,700 3,620Intraprovincial Out 3,692 3,332 3,290 3,210 3,150 3,120 3,060 2,980Net Intraprovincial 705 497 700 650 630 630 640 650Interprovincial In 655 622 570 390 380 370 370 370Interprovincial Out 708 660 730 500 460 460 450 440Net Interprovincial -53 -38 -150 -110 -80 -80 -80 -70Immigration 129 107 130 130 140 140 140 140Emigration 60 65 40 50 50 50 50 50Net International 69 42 90 80 90 90 90 90Other International 2 41 66 50 60 60 60 60 60Total Net 3 762 567 680 670 700 700 710 7301) Average annual change. 2) Comprised of net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants.3) Sum of Net Intraprovincial, Net Interprovincial, Net International and Other International Migration.Note: Components are for July 1 of given year to June 30 of following year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population PyramidProjected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+2013
100+ 100+100+ 100+2020
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
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2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
InterlakePopulation by Age Group
14 & 85 & Year Under 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 Over Total
Level2013 15,300 12,800 8,800 9,900 15,200 14,300 9,700 4,900 1,900 92,9002018 15,200 12,900 11,400 9,000 12,700 15,700 11,500 5,900 2,300 96,5002020 15,500 12,400 12,800 9,100 11,600 15,700 12,300 6,400 2,400 98,1002023 16,000 11,900 14,300 9,800 10,400 15,000 13,100 7,600 2,700 100,8002028 17,800 11,600 14,500 12,400 9,500 12,700 14,400 9,000 3,400 105,3002038 20,000 12,700 13,300 15,500 12,900 9,700 11,800 11,600 5,600 112,900Average Annual Change from 20132018 -20 20 520 -180 -500 280 360 200 80 7202020 29 -57 571 -114 -514 200 371 214 71 7432023 70 -90 550 -10 -480 70 340 270 80 7902028 167 -80 380 167 -380 -107 313 273 100 8272038 188 -4 180 224 -92 -184 84 268 148 800Average Annual Percent Change from 2013 (%)2018 -0.1 0.2 5.9 -1.8 -3.3 2.0 3.7 4.1 4.2 0.82020 0.2 -0.4 6.5 -1.2 -3.4 1.4 3.8 4.4 3.8 0.82023 0.5 -0.7 6.3 -0.1 -3.2 0.5 3.5 5.5 4.2 0.92028 1.1 -0.6 4.3 1.7 -2.5 -0.7 3.2 5.6 5.3 0.92038 1.2 0.0 2.0 2.3 -0.6 -1.3 0.9 5.5 7.8 0.9
Note: Population is for July 1. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
4 &Under
10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100 &Over
People (000's)
Population ChangeBy Age Group: 2013 to 2020
Males Females
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 19 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
InterlakeNatural Change
International Migration
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
International MigrationEstimated & Projected
Emigration Immigration* Net International*
*Includes Returning Emigrants and Net Non-Permanent Residents less Net Temporary Emigrants.
ProjectedEstimated
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
Natural ChangeEstimated & Projected
Deaths Births Natural Change
ProjectedEstimated
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 20 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
InterlakeTotal Net Migration Components
Component Growth
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
-0.6
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
Total Net Migration ComponentsEstimated & Projected
Net Intraprovincial Net InterprovincialNet International* Total Net Migration
*Includes Returning Emigrants and Net Non-Permanent Residents less Net Temporary Emigrants.
ProjectedEstimated
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)
Component GrowthEstimated & Projected
Total Out Migration DeathsTotal In Migration* BirthsComponent Growth
*Includes Returning Emigrants and Net Non-Permanent Residents less Net Temporary Emigrants.
ProjectedEstimated
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 21 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
Interlake10 Year Comparison
Manitoba Comparison - 2020
Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population PyramidEstimated & Projected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+2013
100+ 100+2003
100+ 100+2023
05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
AgeAge
Percent
Population Pyramid - 2020Projected Age Distribution
Female Male
Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.
100+ 100+Interlake
100+ 100+100+ 100+Manitoba
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 22 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
Interlake All Ages Median Age
14 & Under 14 & Under (Share of All Ages)
15 to 64 15 to 64 (Share of All Ages)
65 & Over 65 & Over (Share of All Ages)
Data Source: Statistics Canada (2001-2005), MBS Estimates (2006-2012), MBS Projection (2013-2038)
10
14
18
22
26
30
2001 2011 2021 2031
Percent
Estimated Projected
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
50
55
60
65
70
75
2001 2011 2021 2031
Percent
Estimated Projected
55
57
59
61
63
65
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
12
14
16
18
20
22
2001 2011 2021 2031
Percent
Estimated Projected
13
15
17
19
21
23
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
37
39
41
43
45
47
2001 2011 2021 2031
Years
Estimated Projected
70
80
90
100
110
120
2001 2011 2021 2031
Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 23 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
InterlakeGrowth Rates for Total Population
Growth Rates for 65 & Over Population
Data Source: MBS Projection
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percent Change
Projected Growth RatesBy Selected Age Group
65 to 74 75 to 84 85 & Over
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percent Change
Projected Growth RatesBy Selected Age Group
14 & Under 15 to 64 65 & Over
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 24 -
2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results
InterlakePopulation Distribution by Selected Age Group
Potential Labour Force Entrants Vs. Potential Labour Force Retirees
Data Source: Statistics Canada (2001-2005), MBS Estimates (2006-2012), MBS Projection (2013-2038)
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.020.0
1
Projected PopulationDistribution by Age Group
12 & Under 13 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 3435 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 & Over
2013All Ages - 92,900
2020All Ages - 98,100
2038All Ages - 112,900
14.0
6.7
9.6
9.5
10.7 16.4
15.4
17.7 13.5
5.6
9.3
13.0
9.3 11.8
16.0
21.515.3
6.0
7.7
11.8
13.711.4
8.6
25.6
Percent Share
7.0
9.5
12.0
14.5
17.0
19.5
22.0
2001 2011 2021 2031
Population Aged 15 to 24 & 55 to 64Estimated & Projected
15 to 24 55 to 64
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Share of Total (%)ProjectedEstimated
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
People (000's)ProjectedEstimated
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 25 -
Tabl
e 1
PR
OJE
CTE
D C
OM
PON
ENTS
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
GR
OW
TH F
OR
INTE
RLA
KE
B
OTH
SEX
ES
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- M
IGR
ATIO
N-
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- C
ENSU
SPO
PULA
TIO
NN
ATU
RAL
NET
INTR
A-N
ET IN
TER
-N
ET IN
TER
-TO
TAL
YEAR
(JU
LY 1
)B
IRTH
SD
EATH
SIN
CR
EASE
PRO
VIN
CIA
LPR
OVI
NC
IAL
NAT
ION
ALO
THER
NET
2013
92,9
0088
084
040
700
-150
9050
680
2014
93,7
0090
086
040
690
-150
8050
660
2015
94,4
0093
088
050
670
-150
7050
640
2016
95,0
0097
090
070
660
-140
7050
650
2017
95,8
001,
010
920
9066
0-1
2080
5066
0
2018
96,5
001,
050
940
120
650
-110
8060
670
2019
97,3
001,
090
960
140
640
-100
8060
690
2020
98,1
001,
130
970
160
630
-80
9060
700
2021
99,0
001,
170
990
180
630
-80
9060
700
2022
99,9
001,
200
1,01
019
063
0-8
090
6070
0
2023
100,
800
1,23
01,
030
200
630
-80
9060
700
2024
101,
700
1,25
01,
050
210
640
-80
9060
710
2025
102,
600
1,27
01,
070
200
640
-80
9060
710
2026
103,
500
1,28
01,
090
190
640
-80
9060
710
2027
104,
400
1,28
01,
100
180
640
-80
9060
710
2028
105,
300
1,28
01,
120
150
640
-80
9060
710
2029
106,
100
1,27
01,
140
130
640
-70
9060
720
2030
107,
000
1,26
01,
160
100
640
-70
9060
720
2031
107,
800
1,25
01,
180
8064
0-7
090
6072
020
3210
8,60
01,
250
1,20
050
640
-70
9060
720
2033
109,
400
1,24
01,
210
3064
0-7
090
6072
020
3411
0,10
01,
240
1,23
010
640
-70
9060
720
2035
110,
800
1,23
01,
250
-10
650
-70
9060
730
2036
111,
500
1,23
01,
260
-30
650
-70
9060
730
2037
112,
200
1,23
01,
280
-40
650
-70
9060
730
2038
112,
900
1,23
01,
290
-60
650
-70
9060
730
NO
TE: A
CEN
SUS
YEAR
IS D
EFIN
ED A
S JU
LY 1
TO
JU
NE
30
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 26 -
Tabl
e 2
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: IN
TER
LAK
E
BO
TH S
EXES
(IN 0
00'S
)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
4.7
5.2
5.5
6.7
6.1
4.6
4.2
4.4
5.5
7.1
8.2
7.8
6.5
5.7
4.0
2.9
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
92.9
2014
4.6
5.2
5.4
6.6
6.5
4.9
4.4
4.3
5.3
6.6
8.2
7.8
6.8
5.8
4.3
2.9
2.1
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
93.7
2015
4.6
5.2
5.3
6.4
6.9
5.2
4.4
4.3
5.1
6.3
8.0
7.9
7.0
6.0
4.5
3.0
2.1
1.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
94.4
2016
4.6
5.2
5.3
6.1
7.1
5.6
4.6
4.3
4.9
6.0
7.8
8.1
7.2
6.2
4.7
3.2
2.2
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
95.0
2017
4.7
5.1
5.4
5.9
7.3
6.0
4.7
4.4
4.7
5.8
7.4
8.1
7.4
6.1
5.0
3.4
2.2
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
95.8
2018
4.8
4.9
5.4
5.7
7.2
6.5
4.9
4.5
4.5
5.6
7.1
8.1
7.6
6.2
5.3
3.5
2.3
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
96.5
2019
5.0
4.9
5.4
5.6
7.0
6.9
5.2
4.6
4.5
5.4
6.7
8.1
7.7
6.5
5.4
3.8
2.4
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
97.3
2020
5.2
4.9
5.4
5.6
6.8
7.2
5.5
4.6
4.4
5.2
6.4
8.0
7.8
6.7
5.6
4.0
2.4
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
98.1
2021
5.4
4.9
5.4
5.6
6.5
7.5
5.9
4.8
4.5
5.0
6.1
7.8
7.9
6.9
5.7
4.1
2.6
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
99.0
2022
5.6
5.0
5.3
5.6
6.3
7.6
6.3
5.0
4.5
4.8
5.9
7.4
8.0
7.1
5.7
4.5
2.7
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
99.9
2023
5.8
5.1
5.2
5.7
6.2
7.5
6.8
5.2
4.7
4.7
5.7
7.1
7.9
7.2
5.8
4.7
2.9
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
100.
820
245.
95.
35.
15.
76.
17.
47.
25.
44.
84.
65.
56.
67.
97.
36.
14.
83.
11.
70.
80.
20.
010
1.7
2025
6.1
5.5
5.1
5.7
6.0
7.2
7.6
5.8
4.8
4.6
5.3
6.4
7.8
7.4
6.2
5.0
3.3
1.7
0.8
0.3
0.1
102.
620
266.
25.
75.
15.
76.
16.
97.
86.
25.
04.
65.
16.
17.
67.
56.
45.
13.
41.
90.
90.
30.
110
3.5
2027
6.4
5.9
5.2
5.6
6.1
6.7
8.0
6.6
5.1
4.7
4.9
5.9
7.3
7.6
6.6
5.1
3.7
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.1
104.
4
2028
6.4
6.1
5.3
5.4
6.2
6.6
7.9
7.0
5.3
4.8
4.7
5.7
6.9
7.6
6.8
5.2
3.9
2.1
0.9
0.3
0.1
105.
320
296.
56.
25.
55.
46.
26.
57.
87.
55.
64.
94.
75.
56.
57.
66.
95.
43.
92.
21.
00.
30.
110
6.1
2030
6.5
6.4
5.7
5.4
6.2
6.4
7.5
7.8
6.0
5.0
4.7
5.3
6.3
7.5
7.0
5.6
4.1
2.4
1.0
0.3
0.1
107.
020
316.
56.
55.
95.
46.
16.
57.
38.
16.
35.
14.
75.
16.
07.
37.
15.
84.
22.
51.
10.
30.
110
7.8
2032
6.5
6.6
6.1
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.1
8.2
6.7
5.3
4.8
4.9
5.8
7.0
7.2
5.9
4.2
2.7
1.2
0.3
0.1
108.
6
2033
6.4
6.7
6.3
5.6
5.9
6.6
6.9
8.1
7.2
5.5
4.9
4.8
5.6
6.7
7.1
6.1
4.3
2.8
1.2
0.4
0.1
109.
420
346.
46.
86.
55.
85.
96.
66.
88.
07.
65.
75.
04.
75.
56.
37.
26.
24.
52.
91.
30.
40.
111
0.1
2035
6.4
6.8
6.6
6.0
5.8
6.6
6.8
7.8
8.0
6.1
5.1
4.7
5.3
6.1
7.0
6.3
4.7
3.0
1.4
0.4
0.1
110.
820
366.
36.
86.
86.
25.
96.
56.
87.
58.
36.
55.
24.
85.
05.
86.
96.
44.
83.
11.
50.
40.
111
1.5
2037
6.3
6.8
6.9
6.4
6.0
6.4
6.9
7.3
8.4
6.9
5.4
4.8
4.9
5.6
6.6
6.5
5.0
3.1
1.6
0.5
0.1
112.
2
2038
6.3
6.7
6.9
6.6
6.1
6.3
6.9
7.2
8.3
7.3
5.6
4.9
4.8
5.5
6.3
6.5
5.1
3.2
1.7
0.5
0.1
112.
9
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 27 -
Tabl
e 3
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: IN
TER
LAK
E
FEM
ALE
(IN 0
00'S
)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
2.3
2.6
2.6
3.3
2.9
2.0
2.0
2.3
2.8
3.6
4.0
3.7
3.2
2.8
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
45.8
2014
2.3
2.6
2.5
3.3
3.2
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.7
3.4
4.0
3.8
3.3
2.9
2.1
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
46.2
2015
2.2
2.6
2.5
3.1
3.3
2.4
2.0
2.2
2.6
3.2
3.9
3.8
3.4
3.0
2.2
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
46.6
2016
2.3
2.6
2.5
3.0
3.5
2.6
2.1
2.1
2.5
3.0
3.9
3.9
3.5
3.1
2.3
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
47.0
2017
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
3.6
2.9
2.2
2.1
2.4
2.9
3.7
4.0
3.6
3.1
2.5
1.7
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
47.4
2018
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.7
3.5
3.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.8
3.6
3.9
3.7
3.1
2.7
1.8
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
47.8
2019
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.6
3.5
3.3
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.7
3.4
4.0
3.7
3.2
2.7
1.9
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
48.2
2020
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.6
3.3
3.5
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.6
3.2
3.9
3.8
3.3
2.8
2.0
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
48.7
2021
2.6
2.4
2.7
2.6
3.2
3.7
2.8
2.2
2.2
2.5
3.1
3.9
3.8
3.4
2.9
2.1
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.0
49.1
2022
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.8
3.0
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.9
3.7
3.9
3.5
2.9
2.3
1.5
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
49.6
2023
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.7
3.3
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.9
3.6
3.9
3.5
2.9
2.4
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
50.0
2024
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.7
3.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.8
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.1
2.5
1.6
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
50.5
2025
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.8
2.8
3.5
3.7
2.7
2.3
2.3
2.7
3.2
3.9
3.6
3.2
2.6
1.7
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
51.0
2026
3.1
2.8
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.4
3.9
2.9
2.3
2.3
2.6
3.1
3.8
3.7
3.2
2.7
1.8
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
51.5
2027
3.1
2.9
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.2
4.0
3.2
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.7
3.8
3.3
2.7
2.0
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
52.0
2028
3.1
3.0
2.6
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.9
3.4
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.5
3.8
3.4
2.7
2.1
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
52.4
2029
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.9
3.7
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.8
3.4
3.8
3.4
2.8
2.1
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
52.9
2030
3.2
3.1
2.8
2.6
3.1
3.0
3.7
3.8
2.8
2.3
2.4
2.7
3.2
3.8
3.5
2.9
2.2
1.3
0.6
0.2
0.0
53.3
2031
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.6
3.0
3.1
3.6
4.0
3.0
2.4
2.3
2.6
3.0
3.7
3.5
3.0
2.3
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
53.7
2032
3.2
3.3
3.0
2.7
3.0
3.2
3.4
4.1
3.2
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.6
3.6
3.0
2.3
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.1
54.2
2033
3.1
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.3
4.0
3.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.9
3.4
3.6
3.1
2.3
1.6
0.7
0.2
0.1
54.6
2034
3.1
3.3
3.2
2.8
2.9
3.3
3.3
4.0
3.7
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.3
3.6
3.1
2.4
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.1
54.9
2035
3.1
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.9
3.3
3.2
3.9
3.9
2.9
2.4
2.4
2.7
3.1
3.6
3.2
2.5
1.7
0.8
0.3
0.1
55.3
2036
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.3
3.3
3.7
4.1
3.0
2.4
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.5
3.3
2.5
1.8
0.9
0.3
0.1
55.7
2037
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.5
4.2
3.3
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.9
3.4
3.3
2.6
1.8
0.9
0.3
0.1
56.0
2038
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.5
4.1
3.6
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.3
2.7
1.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
56.4
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 28 -
Tabl
e 4
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: IN
TER
LAK
E
MAL
E(IN
000
'S)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
2.3
2.7
2.9
3.4
3.2
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.8
3.5
4.2
4.0
3.3
2.9
2.0
1.3
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
47.1
2014
2.3
2.7
2.8
3.4
3.4
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.7
3.3
4.2
4.1
3.5
2.9
2.2
1.4
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
47.4
2015
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.3
3.5
2.8
2.4
2.1
2.5
3.1
4.1
4.1
3.6
3.0
2.3
1.4
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
47.7
2016
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.6
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.4
3.0
3.9
4.1
3.7
3.1
2.4
1.5
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
48.0
2017
2.4
2.5
2.8
3.1
3.7
3.1
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.9
3.7
4.2
3.8
3.1
2.5
1.6
1.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.0
48.4
2018
2.5
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.6
3.3
2.7
2.3
2.2
2.8
3.5
4.2
3.9
3.1
2.6
1.7
1.0
0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
48.7
2019
2.5
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.6
3.5
2.8
2.4
2.2
2.7
3.3
4.2
3.9
3.3
2.6
1.8
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
49.1
2020
2.6
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.5
3.7
3.0
2.5
2.2
2.6
3.1
4.0
4.0
3.4
2.7
2.0
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
49.5
2021
2.7
2.5
2.7
3.0
3.4
3.8
3.1
2.6
2.3
2.4
3.0
3.9
4.0
3.5
2.8
2.0
1.2
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
49.9
2022
2.8
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.8
3.3
2.7
2.3
2.3
2.9
3.7
4.1
3.6
2.8
2.2
1.3
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
50.3
2023
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.8
3.5
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.8
3.5
4.1
3.7
2.9
2.2
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
50.7
2024
3.0
2.7
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.7
3.7
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.8
3.3
4.0
3.7
3.0
2.3
1.4
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
51.1
2025
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.7
3.8
3.1
2.6
2.2
2.6
3.1
3.9
3.8
3.1
2.4
1.5
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
51.6
2026
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.9
3.3
2.7
2.3
2.5
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.2
2.4
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
52.0
2027
3.2
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.2
3.5
4.0
3.4
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.9
3.6
3.8
3.3
2.4
1.7
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
52.4
2028
3.3
3.1
2.7
2.7
3.2
3.4
4.0
3.6
2.9
2.5
2.3
2.8
3.4
3.8
3.4
2.5
1.8
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
52.8
2029
3.3
3.2
2.8
2.7
3.2
3.4
3.9
3.8
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.8
3.4
2.6
1.8
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
53.3
2030
3.3
3.3
2.9
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.0
3.2
2.6
2.3
2.6
3.1
3.7
3.5
2.7
1.9
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
53.7
2031
3.3
3.3
3.0
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.1
3.3
2.7
2.4
2.5
2.9
3.6
3.5
2.8
1.9
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
54.0
2032
3.3
3.4
3.1
2.8
3.0
3.4
3.6
4.1
3.5
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.9
3.4
3.6
2.9
2.0
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
54.4
2033
3.3
3.4
3.2
2.9
3.0
3.4
3.6
4.1
3.7
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.6
3.0
2.0
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
54.8
2034
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.6
4.0
3.9
3.1
2.6
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.6
3.0
2.1
1.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
55.2
2035
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.9
4.0
3.2
2.7
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.5
3.1
2.2
1.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
55.5
2036
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.8
4.1
3.4
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.8
3.4
3.1
2.3
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
55.9
2037
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.8
4.2
3.6
2.9
2.5
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.1
2.4
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
56.2
2038
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.2
3.7
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.2
2.4
1.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
56.5
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 29 -
Tabl
e 5
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: IN
TER
LAK
E
BO
TH S
EXES
(PER
CEN
T O
F TO
TAL)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
5.0
5.6
5.9
7.3
6.6
4.9
4.6
4.7
6.0
7.6
8.8
8.3
7.0
6.1
4.3
3.1
2.2
1.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
100.
020
144.
95.
65.
77.
17.
05.
24.
64.
65.
77.
18.
78.
47.
36.
24.
53.
12.
31.
40.
60.
10.
010
0.0
2015
4.8
5.5
5.6
6.8
7.3
5.5
4.7
4.5
5.4
6.7
8.5
8.4
7.4
6.4
4.8
3.2
2.3
1.4
0.6
0.1
0.0
100.
020
164.
85.
45.
66.
47.
55.
94.
84.
55.
16.
38.
28.
57.
66.
54.
93.
32.
31.
40.
60.
20.
010
0.0
2017
4.9
5.3
5.6
6.1
7.6
6.3
4.9
4.6
4.9
6.1
7.8
8.5
7.7
6.4
5.3
3.5
2.3
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
0
2018
5.0
5.1
5.6
5.9
7.4
6.7
5.1
4.6
4.7
5.8
7.4
8.4
7.8
6.5
5.5
3.7
2.4
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
195.
15.
05.
65.
87.
27.
15.
34.
74.
65.
66.
98.
37.
96.
75.
53.
92.
41.
50.
70.
20.
010
0.0
2020
5.3
4.9
5.5
5.7
6.9
7.4
5.7
4.7
4.5
5.3
6.5
8.1
7.9
6.8
5.7
4.1
2.5
1.5
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
215.
44.
95.
45.
76.
67.
66.
04.
84.
55.
06.
17.
88.
07.
05.
84.
22.
61.
60.
70.
20.
010
0.0
2022
5.6
5.0
5.3
5.7
6.3
7.6
6.3
5.0
4.6
4.8
5.9
7.4
8.0
7.1
5.7
4.5
2.7
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
100.
0
2023
5.7
5.1
5.1
5.7
6.1
7.5
6.7
5.1
4.6
4.6
5.7
7.0
7.9
7.2
5.8
4.6
2.9
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
100.
020
245.
95.
25.
05.
66.
07.
37.
15.
34.
74.
55.
46.
57.
87.
26.
04.
73.
01.
60.
80.
20.
010
0.0
2025
6.0
5.3
4.9
5.6
5.9
7.0
7.4
5.6
4.7
4.5
5.2
6.2
7.6
7.2
6.1
4.8
3.2
1.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
100.
020
266.
05.
54.
95.
55.
96.
77.
65.
94.
84.
54.
95.
97.
37.
36.
24.
93.
31.
80.
80.
30.
110
0.0
2027
6.1
5.6
5.0
5.3
5.9
6.4
7.6
6.3
4.9
4.5
4.7
5.6
7.0
7.3
6.3
4.9
3.5
1.9
0.8
0.3
0.1
100.
0
2028
6.1
5.8
5.0
5.2
5.9
6.3
7.5
6.7
5.1
4.5
4.5
5.4
6.6
7.2
6.4
4.9
3.7
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
296.
15.
95.
25.
15.
86.
17.
37.
05.
34.
64.
45.
26.
27.
26.
55.
13.
72.
10.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2030
6.1
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.8
6.0
7.1
7.3
5.6
4.6
4.4
5.0
5.9
7.0
6.5
5.2
3.8
2.2
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
316.
06.
15.
55.
05.
76.
06.
87.
55.
94.
74.
44.
75.
56.
86.
65.
33.
92.
31.
00.
30.
110
0.0
2032
6.0
6.1
5.6
5.0
5.6
6.0
6.5
7.6
6.2
4.9
4.4
4.5
5.4
6.4
6.6
5.5
3.9
2.5
1.1
0.3
0.1
100.
0
2033
5.9
6.1
5.7
5.1
5.4
6.0
6.3
7.4
6.6
5.0
4.5
4.4
5.2
6.1
6.5
5.6
4.0
2.6
1.1
0.3
0.1
100.
020
345.
86.
15.
95.
35.
36.
06.
27.
36.
95.
24.
54.
35.
05.
76.
55.
64.
12.
61.
20.
30.
110
0.0
2035
5.7
6.1
6.0
5.4
5.3
6.0
6.1
7.0
7.2
5.5
4.6
4.2
4.7
5.5
6.4
5.7
4.2
2.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
100.
020
365.
76.
16.
15.
55.
35.
96.
16.
87.
45.
84.
74.
34.
55.
26.
25.
74.
32.
81.
30.
40.
110
0.0
2037
5.6
6.0
6.1
5.7
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.5
7.5
6.1
4.8
4.3
4.3
5.0
5.9
5.8
4.4
2.8
1.4
0.4
0.1
100.
0
2038
5.6
6.0
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.6
6.2
6.4
7.4
6.5
4.9
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.6
5.7
4.5
2.9
1.5
0.5
0.1
100.
0
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 30 -
Tabl
e 6
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: IN
TER
LAK
E
FEM
ALE
(PER
CEN
T O
F TO
TAL)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
5.0
5.6
5.6
7.2
6.4
4.5
4.4
4.9
6.0
7.8
8.6
8.1
7.0
6.1
4.3
3.3
2.4
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
100.
020
144.
95.
65.
47.
16.
84.
74.
44.
85.
87.
38.
68.
27.
26.
24.
53.
32.
51.
60.
80.
20.
010
0.0
2015
4.8
5.6
5.3
6.7
7.2
5.2
4.4
4.7
5.5
6.8
8.4
8.2
7.4
6.4
4.8
3.3
2.5
1.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
100.
020
164.
85.
55.
36.
37.
55.
54.
54.
65.
36.
48.
28.
37.
56.
64.
93.
52.
61.
60.
80.
20.
010
0.0
2017
4.8
5.3
5.4
5.9
7.6
6.0
4.5
4.5
5.1
6.1
7.9
8.4
7.6
6.5
5.3
3.7
2.6
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.0
100.
0
2018
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.6
7.4
6.6
4.6
4.5
4.9
5.9
7.5
8.2
7.7
6.5
5.5
3.8
2.7
1.7
0.9
0.3
0.0
100.
020
195.
05.
05.
55.
57.
26.
94.
94.
54.
85.
67.
08.
27.
76.
75.
74.
02.
71.
80.
90.
30.
010
0.0
2020
5.2
4.9
5.6
5.3
6.9
7.3
5.3
4.5
4.7
5.4
6.6
8.1
7.8
6.8
5.8
4.2
2.7
1.8
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
020
215.
44.
95.
45.
46.
57.
65.
64.
54.
55.
26.
27.
87.
86.
95.
94.
32.
81.
80.
90.
30.
110
0.0
2022
5.5
4.9
5.3
5.5
6.1
7.7
6.1
4.6
4.5
5.0
5.9
7.5
7.9
7.0
5.9
4.6
3.0
1.8
0.9
0.3
0.1
100.
0
2023
5.6
5.0
5.1
5.6
5.8
7.5
6.6
4.7
4.5
4.8
5.7
7.2
7.8
7.1
5.9
4.8
3.1
1.9
1.0
0.3
0.1
100.
020
245.
85.
15.
05.
65.
77.
37.
04.
94.
54.
75.
56.
77.
77.
16.
14.
93.
21.
91.
00.
30.
110
0.0
2025
5.9
5.2
4.9
5.6
5.5
7.0
7.3
5.3
4.4
4.6
5.2
6.3
7.6
7.2
6.2
5.1
3.4
1.9
1.0
0.3
0.1
100.
020
265.
95.
44.
95.
55.
66.
67.
65.
64.
54.
55.
06.
07.
47.
26.
25.
23.
52.
01.
00.
30.
110
0.0
2027
6.0
5.5
4.9
5.3
5.6
6.2
7.7
6.1
4.6
4.4
4.9
5.7
7.1
7.3
6.3
5.1
3.8
2.1
1.0
0.4
0.1
100.
0
2028
6.0
5.7
5.0
5.1
5.8
6.0
7.5
6.6
4.7
4.4
4.7
5.5
6.8
7.2
6.4
5.2
4.0
2.2
1.1
0.4
0.1
100.
020
296.
05.
85.
15.
05.
75.
87.
36.
94.
94.
44.
65.
26.
47.
26.
55.
34.
02.
31.
10.
40.
110
0.0
2030
6.0
5.9
5.2
4.9
5.8
5.7
7.0
7.2
5.3
4.4
4.5
5.0
6.0
7.0
6.5
5.4
4.2
2.4
1.1
0.4
0.1
100.
020
315.
96.
05.
44.
95.
75.
76.
67.
55.
64.
44.
44.
95.
76.
96.
65.
54.
32.
61.
20.
40.
110
0.0
2032
5.8
6.0
5.5
5.0
5.5
5.8
6.3
7.6
6.0
4.5
4.3
4.7
5.4
6.6
6.6
5.6
4.2
2.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
100.
0
2033
5.8
6.0
5.6
5.0
5.4
5.9
6.1
7.4
6.5
4.6
4.3
4.5
5.2
6.3
6.5
5.7
4.3
2.9
1.3
0.4
0.1
100.
020
345.
76.
05.
85.
15.
35.
96.
07.
36.
84.
84.
34.
45.
05.
96.
55.
74.
43.
01.
40.
50.
110
0.0
2035
5.6
6.0
5.9
5.3
5.2
6.0
5.8
7.0
7.1
5.2
4.3
4.4
4.8
5.6
6.5
5.8
4.5
3.1
1.5
0.5
0.1
100.
020
365.
66.
05.
95.
45.
25.
95.
96.
67.
45.
54.
44.
34.
75.
36.
35.
94.
63.
11.
50.
50.
110
0.0
2037
5.5
5.9
6.0
5.6
5.2
5.7
6.0
6.3
7.5
5.9
4.4
4.2
4.5
5.1
6.1
5.9
4.7
3.1
1.7
0.5
0.1
100.
0
2038
5.5
5.8
6.0
5.7
5.3
5.6
6.1
6.1
7.3
6.4
4.5
4.2
4.4
4.9
5.8
5.9
4.7
3.2
1.8
0.6
0.1
100.
0
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 31 -
Tabl
e 7
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: IN
TER
LAK
E
MAL
E(P
ERC
ENT
OF
TOTA
L)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
5.0
5.7
6.1
7.3
6.7
5.4
4.7
4.5
5.9
7.4
9.0
8.6
7.0
6.1
4.3
2.9
2.0
1.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
100.
020
144.
95.
66.
07.
17.
15.
64.
94.
45.
76.
98.
98.
67.
36.
14.
62.
92.
01.
10.
40.
10.
010
0.0
2015
4.9
5.5
5.9
6.8
7.4
5.9
5.0
4.4
5.3
6.5
8.6
8.6
7.5
6.3
4.8
3.0
2.0
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
100.
020
164.
95.
45.
96.
57.
56.
25.
14.
54.
96.
28.
28.
67.
76.
44.
93.
22.
01.
20.
40.
10.
010
0.0
2017
4.9
5.3
5.8
6.4
7.5
6.5
5.3
4.6
4.7
6.0
7.7
8.6
7.9
6.4
5.3
3.3
2.0
1.3
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
0
2018
5.0
5.1
5.7
6.2
7.4
6.8
5.5
4.8
4.5
5.8
7.2
8.6
8.0
6.4
5.4
3.5
2.1
1.2
0.5
0.1
0.0
100.
020
195.
25.
05.
66.
17.
37.
25.
74.
94.
45.
66.
78.
58.
06.
75.
43.
82.
21.
20.
50.
10.
010
0.0
2020
5.3
5.0
5.5
6.0
7.0
7.5
6.0
5.0
4.4
5.3
6.3
8.2
8.1
6.8
5.5
3.9
2.3
1.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
100.
020
215.
55.
05.
45.
96.
77.
66.
35.
24.
54.
96.
07.
88.
17.
05.
64.
12.
41.
30.
60.
10.
010
0.0
2022
5.7
5.0
5.3
5.9
6.6
7.6
6.6
5.3
4.6
4.6
5.9
7.3
8.1
7.2
5.6
4.3
2.5
1.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
100.
0
2023
5.8
5.1
5.1
5.8
6.4
7.5
6.9
5.6
4.8
4.4
5.6
6.9
8.0
7.3
5.7
4.4
2.7
1.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
100.
020
245.
95.
35.
05.
76.
37.
37.
25.
74.
94.
35.
46.
47.
97.
35.
94.
42.
81.
40.
60.
20.
010
0.0
2025
6.1
5.4
5.0
5.6
6.2
7.1
7.5
6.0
5.0
4.3
5.1
6.1
7.6
7.3
6.0
4.6
3.0
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.0
100.
020
266.
15.
65.
05.
56.
16.
87.
66.
35.
14.
54.
85.
87.
37.
36.
24.
63.
11.
50.
60.
20.
010
0.0
2027
6.2
5.7
5.0
5.4
6.1
6.6
7.6
6.5
5.3
4.6
4.5
5.6
6.9
7.3
6.3
4.6
3.3
1.6
0.6
0.2
0.0
100.
0
2028
6.2
5.9
5.1
5.2
6.0
6.5
7.5
6.8
5.5
4.7
4.3
5.4
6.4
7.3
6.5
4.7
3.4
1.7
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
296.
26.
05.
35.
15.
96.
47.
37.
25.
64.
84.
25.
26.
07.
26.
54.
93.
41.
90.
70.
20.
010
0.0
2030
6.2
6.1
5.4
5.1
5.8
6.3
7.1
7.4
5.9
4.9
4.3
4.9
5.7
7.0
6.5
5.0
3.5
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.0
100.
020
316.
16.
25.
65.
15.
76.
36.
97.
56.
25.
04.
44.
65.
46.
76.
55.
23.
62.
00.
80.
20.
010
0.0
2032
6.1
6.2
5.7
5.1
5.6
6.2
6.7
7.5
6.4
5.2
4.5
4.4
5.3
6.3
6.5
5.3
3.6
2.2
0.9
0.2
0.0
100.
0
2033
6.0
6.3
5.9
5.2
5.4
6.1
6.6
7.4
6.7
5.4
4.6
4.2
5.1
5.9
6.5
5.4
3.7
2.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
100.
020
345.
96.
36.
05.
45.
46.
16.
57.
37.
15.
64.
74.
14.
95.
56.
55.
53.
82.
31.
00.
20.
110
0.0
2035
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.5
5.4
6.0
6.4
7.1
7.3
5.8
4.8
4.1
4.7
5.3
6.3
5.5
3.9
2.4
1.1
0.3
0.1
100.
020
365.
86.
26.
25.
75.
35.
96.
36.
97.
46.
14.
94.
34.
45.
06.
05.
64.
12.
41.
10.
30.
110
0.0
2037
5.7
6.1
6.2
5.8
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.7
7.4
6.3
5.1
4.4
4.2
4.9
5.7
5.6
4.2
2.5
1.2
0.3
0.1
100.
0
2038
5.7
6.1
6.3
5.9
5.5
5.6
6.2
6.6
7.4
6.6
5.3
4.5
4.0
4.8
5.4
5.6
4.3
2.5
1.3
0.3
0.1
100.
0
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 32 -
Tabl
e 8
PR
OJE
CTE
D P
OPU
LATI
ON
BY
SEX
AND
AG
E: IN
TER
LAK
E
(FEM
ALES
AS
A PE
RC
ENTA
GE
OF
MAL
ES)
AGE
0-4
5-9
10-1
415
-19
20-2
425
-29
30-3
435
-39
40-4
445
-49
50-5
455
-59
60-6
465
-69
70-7
475
-79
80-8
485
-89
90-9
495
-99
100+
TOTA
L
YEAR
2013
98.6
95.2
88.6
97.2
93.0
80.1
91.7
106.
910
0.2
101.
793
.692
.397
.197
.698
.511
2.9
118.
314
0.8
215.
236
4.0
425.
097
.420
1497
.696
.788
.497
.393
.382
.689
.110
6.8
99.3
103.
394
.493
.196
.099
.797
.010
9.9
120.
513
6.6
225.
134
6.4
425.
097
.520
1596
.299
.487
.695
.795
.086
.086
.310
4.2
100.
510
2.2
96.4
93.1
96.7
100.
197
.010
8.1
121.
613
5.1
213.
032
8.1
450.
097
.720
1696
.499
.488
.993
.997
.686
.785
.698
.510
4.9
101.
298
.194
.194
.610
0.7
98.1
106.
512
4.5
131.
519
3.7
325.
038
0.0
97.8
2017
96.1
98.7
91.8
91.0
98.6
90.9
83.5
94.8
106.
999
.110
0.3
95.1
94.4
100.
198
.310
8.2
125.
312
8.2
182.
130
7.3
400.
098
.0
2018
95.8
98.6
95.1
88.8
97.5
94.3
82.1
92.6
107.
010
0.1
102.
394
.493
.999
.510
1.2
105.
912
3.3
136.
816
6.1
295.
642
0.0
98.1
2019
95.8
97.6
96.5
88.7
97.6
94.5
84.3
90.2
106.
899
.310
3.8
95.2
94.6
98.3
103.
310
4.1
120.
013
9.5
162.
431
5.6
383.
398
.220
2095
.896
.399
.088
.096
.096
.187
.487
.410
4.4
100.
410
2.8
97.2
94.6
98.9
103.
510
3.9
117.
914
0.2
160.
428
6.5
357.
198
.420
2195
.896
.599
.089
.194
.498
.588
.086
.798
.810
4.6
101.
898
.995
.596
.710
4.1
105.
011
5.9
142.
415
5.0
255.
035
0.0
98.5
2022
95.8
96.2
98.4
91.8
91.5
99.5
91.9
84.7
95.3
106.
599
.610
1.1
96.4
96.5
103.
310
5.1
117.
514
2.4
150.
724
3.1
344.
498
.6
2023
95.8
95.9
98.3
95.0
89.5
98.4
95.1
83.3
93.2
106.
610
0.7
103.
095
.895
.910
2.7
108.
111
4.9
139.
915
9.8
216.
033
0.0
98.7
2024
95.8
95.9
97.4
96.3
89.4
98.5
95.3
85.4
90.8
106.
599
.910
4.5
96.6
96.6
101.
411
0.2
112.
613
5.6
163.
021
5.4
360.
098
.820
2595
.895
.996
.198
.888
.797
.096
.888
.388
.210
4.0
100.
910
3.5
98.5
96.5
102.
011
0.2
112.
213
2.9
163.
421
1.0
316.
798
.920
2695
.895
.996
.398
.789
.895
.599
.188
.887
.598
.810
5.0
102.
410
0.2
97.4
99.6
110.
711
3.2
130.
116
4.3
201.
128
5.7
99.0
2027
95.7
95.9
96.0
98.2
92.3
92.8
99.9
92.6
85.5
95.3
106.
810
0.3
102.
498
.399
.210
9.7
113.
113
1.6
161.
719
2.7
262.
599
.1
2028
95.7
95.9
95.7
98.1
95.3
90.9
99.0
95.6
84.1
93.3
106.
810
1.3
104.
397
.698
.710
8.9
116.
212
8.2
158.
820
5.3
244.
499
.220
2995
.795
.895
.797
.296
.590
.999
.195
.786
.190
.910
6.7
100.
410
5.7
98.4
99.3
107.
411
8.1
125.
215
3.8
208.
024
7.4
99.3
2030
95.7
95.8
95.7
95.9
98.8
90.2
97.6
97.2
88.9
88.4
104.
310
1.5
104.
610
0.3
99.1
107.
811
7.8
124.
314
9.9
204.
823
3.3
99.4
2031
95.7
95.8
95.6
96.1
98.7
91.2
96.1
99.4
89.3
87.7
99.2
105.
510
3.5
102.
010
0.0
105.
211
8.1
125.
014
5.9
203.
621
6.7
99.4
2032
95.7
95.8
95.7
95.9
98.2
93.7
93.7
100.
292
.985
.895
.810
7.2
101.
410
4.1
100.
810
4.7
116.
712
4.7
147.
019
7.4
211.
599
.5
2033
95.7
95.8
95.7
95.6
98.1
96.4
91.9
99.3
95.8
84.4
93.8
107.
210
2.4
105.
910
0.0
104.
011
5.8
127.
914
2.8
194.
421
4.8
99.5
2034
95.7
95.8
95.7
95.6
97.3
97.5
91.8
99.3
96.0
86.3
91.5
107.
010
1.5
107.
310
0.8
104.
411
3.9
129.
413
8.4
186.
521
7.2
99.6
2035
95.7
95.8
95.7
95.6
96.2
99.7
91.2
98.0
97.4
89.1
89.0
104.
710
2.5
106.
210
2.7
104.
211
4.1
128.
513
6.9
179.
621
2.9
99.6
2036
95.7
95.8
95.7
95.6
96.3
99.7
92.2
96.6
99.5
89.5
88.3
99.6
106.
510
5.0
104.
210
4.9
111.
112
8.4
137.
217
3.1
205.
999
.720
3795
.795
.895
.795
.696
.199
.294
.594
.210
0.4
93.0
86.4
96.3
108.
110
2.8
106.
410
5.6
110.
412
6.3
136.
717
4.4
200.
099
.7
2038
95.7
95.8
95.7
95.6
95.8
99.1
97.1
92.4
99.4
95.8
85.1
94.4
108.
110
3.8
108.
110
4.7
109.
512
5.2
139.
716
7.9
192.
799
.7
DAT
A SO
UR
CE:
MAN
ITO
BA
BU
REA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TIC
S
AUG
UST
201
5
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 33 -
Tabl
e 9
PR
OJE
CTED
PO
PULA
TIO
N BY
SEX
AND
AG
E
INTE
RLAK
E(IN
000
'S)
FEM
ALE
M
ALE
BO
TH S
EXES
AG
E0
- 14
15 -
6465
+TO
TAL
MED
IAN
0 - 1
415
- 64
65+
TOTA
LM
EDIA
N0
- 14
15 -
64 6
5+TO
TAL
MED
IAN
AGE
AGE
AGE
YEAR
2013
7.4
29.8
8.6
45.8
45
.2
7.9
31.3
7.9
47.1
43
.9
15.3
61.1
16
.5
92
.9
44.6
20
147.
4
30
.0
8.
9
46
.2
45.4
7.
8
31
.5
8.
1
47
.4
44.1
15
.2
61
.4
17.0
93.7
44
.7
2015
7.3
30.1
9.2
46.6
45
.5
7.8
31.5
8.5
47.7
44
.1
15.1
61.6
17
.7
94
.4
44.8
20
167.
3
30
.1
9.
6
47
.0
45.7
7.
7
31
.5
8.
8
48
.0
44.2
15
.1
61
.6
18.4
95.0
44
.9
2017
7.4
30.1
9.9
47.4
45
.7
7.7
31.6
9.1
48.4
44
.0
15.1
61.7
19
.0
95
.8
44.9
2018
7.4
30.1
10.3
47.8
45
.7
7.7
31.6
9.4
48.7
43
.8
15.2
61.7
19
.7
96
.5
44.8
20
197.
5
30
.1
10
.6
48
.2
45.6
7.
8
31
.5
9.
8
49
.1
43.5
15
.3
61
.6
20.4
97.3
44
.6
2020
7.6
30.0
11.0
48.7
45
.4
7.8
31.5
10.1
49.5
43
.0
15.5
61.5
21
.1
98
.1
44.3
20
217.
7
30
.1
11
.4
49
.1
45.2
7.
9
31
.4
10
.5
49
.9
42.6
15
.6
61
.5
21.9
99.0
43
.9
2022
7.8
30.1
11.7
49.6
44
.9
8.0
31.4
10.9
50.3
42
.2
15.8
61.5
22
.6
99
.9
43.5
2023
7.9
30.1
12.1
50.0
44
.6
8.1
31.3
11.2
50.7
41
.8
16.0
61.4
23
.3
10
0.8
43.1
2024
8.0
30.1
12.5
50.5
44
.2
8.3
31.3
11.6
51.1
41
.5
16.3
61.3
24
.0
10
1.7
42.8
2025
8.1
30.0
12.8
51.0
43
.7
8.5
31.1
11.9
51.6
41
.2
16.6
61.1
24
.8
10
2.6
42.4
20
268.
3
29
.9
13
.2
51
.5
43.3
8.
7
31
.0
12
.3
52
.0
40.9
17
.0
61
.0
25.5
103.
542
.0
2027
8.5
29.9
13.6
52.0
42
.9
8.9
30.9
12.6
52.4
40
.8
17.4
60.8
26
.2
10
4.4
41.7
2028
8.7
29.8
13.9
52.4
42
.5
9.1
30.8
12.9
52.8
40
.6
17.8
60.7
26
.8
10
5.3
41.5
20
298.
9
29
.8
14
.2
52
.9
42.2
9.
3
30
.8
13
.2
53
.3
40.5
18
.2
60
.5
27.4
106.
141
.3
2030
9.1
29.7
14.5
53.3
42
.0
9.5
30.8
13.4
53.7
40
.5
18.6
60.5
27
.9
10
7.0
41.2
20
319.
3
29
.7
14
.8
53
.7
41.9
9.
7
30
.8
13
.6
54
.0
40.5
18
.9
60
.6
28.3
107.
841
.2
2032
9.4
29.8
14.9
54.2
41
.9
9.8
31.0
13.6
54.4
40
.6
19.2
60.8
28
.6
10
8.6
41.2
2033
9.5
30.0
15.0
54.6
41
.9
9.9
31.2
13.7
54.8
40
.7
19.4
61.2
28
.7
10
9.4
41.3
2034
9.6
30.2
15.1
54.9
42
.0
10.0
31.4
13.7
55.2
40
.8
19.6
61.6
28
.9
11
0.1
41.4
2035
9.7
30.4
15.2
55.3
42
.2
10.1
31.7
13.8
55.5
41
.0
19.8
62.1
29
.0
11
0.8
41.6
2036
9.7
30.7
15.2
55.7
42
.3
10.2
31.9
13.8
55.9
41
.1
19.9
62.6
29
.0
11
1.5
41.7
2037
9.8
31.0
15.2
56.0
42
.5
10.2
32.3
13.8
56.2
41
.3
20.0
63.3
29
.0
11
2.2
41.9
2038
9.8
31.4
15.2
56.4
42
.7
10.2
32.6
1 3.7
56.5
41
.4
20.0
64.0
28
.9
11
2.9
42.1
DATA
SO
URCE
: MAN
ITO
BA B
UREA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TICS
AU
GUS
T 20
15
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 34 -
Tabl
e 10
PR
OJE
CTED
PO
PULA
TIO
N BY
SEX
AND
AG
E
INTE
RLAK
E(P
ERC
ENT
OF
TOTA
L)
FEM
ALE
M
ALE
BO
TH S
EXES
AG
E0
- 14
15 -
6465
+TO
TAL
0 - 1
415
- 64
65+
TOTA
L0
- 14
15 -
64 6
5+TO
TAL
YEAR
2013
16.2
65.0
18.8
10
0.0
16.8
66.5
16
.7
100.
016
.565
.8
17.7
10
0.0
2014
15.9
64.9
19.2
10
0.0
16.5
66
.3
17.2
10
0.0
16.2
65.6
18
.2
100.
020
1515
.764
.519
.8
100.
016
.3
66.0
17
.8
100.
016
.065
.2
18.8
10
0.0
2016
15.6
64.1
20.4
10
0.0
16.1
65
.6
18.3
10
0.0
15.8
64.8
19
.3
100.
020
1715
.663
.620
.9
100.
016
.065
.2
18.8
10
0.0
15.8
64.4
19
.8
100.
0
2018
15.6
63.0
21.4
10
0.0
15.9
64.9
19
.3
100.
015
.763
.9
20.4
10
0.0
2019
15.6
62.4
22.0
10
0.0
15.8
64
.3
19.9
10
0.0
15.7
63.3
20
.9
100.
020
2015
.761
.722
.6
100.
015
.9
63.7
20
.5
100.
015
.862
.7
21.5
10
0.0
2021
15.7
61.2
23.1
10
0.0
15.9
63.0
21
.1
100.
015
.862
.1
22.1
10
0.0
2022
15.7
60.7
23.6
10
0.0
16.0
62
.4
21.6
10
0.0
15.8
61.6
22
.6
100.
0
2023
15.7
60.1
24.2
10
0.0
16.1
61.8
22
.110
0.0
15.9
61.0
23
.1
100.
020
2415
.859
.524
.7
100.
016
.261
.1
22.6
10
0.0
16.0
60.3
23
.6
100.
020
2516
.058
.825
.2
100.
016
.5
60.4
23
.1
100.
016
.259
.6
24.2
10
0.0
2026
16.2
58.2
25.7
10
0.0
16.7
59
.7
23.6
10
0.0
16.4
58.9
24
.7
100.
020
2716
.457
.526
.1
100.
016
.9
59.0
24
.1
100.
016
.758
.2
25.1
10
0.0
2028
16.6
56.9
26.5
100.
017
.258
.4
24.4
10
0.0
16.9
57.6
25
.5
100.
020
2916
.856
.326
.9
100.
017
.557
.8
24.8
10
0.0
17.2
57.0
25
.8
100.
020
3017
.055
.727
.2
100.
017
.757
.4
24.9
10
0.0
17.4
56.6
26
.1
100.
020
3117
.255
.327
.5
100.
017
.9
57.0
25
.1
100.
017
.556
.2
26.3
10
0.0
2032
17.3
55.1
27.6
10
0.0
18.0
56.9
25
.1
100.
017
.756
.0
26.3
10
0.0
2033
17.4
55.0
27.6
10
0.0
18.1
56
.9
25.0
10
0.0
17.8
55.9
26
.3
100.
020
3417
.555
.027
.5
100.
018
.256
.9
24.9
10
0.0
17.8
56.0
2 6
.2
100.
020
3517
.555
.027
.5
100.
018
.2
57.0
24
.8
100.
017
.956
.0
26.1
10
0.0
2036
17.5
55.2
27.4
10
0.0
18.2
57.2
24
.7
100.
017
.856
.2
26.0
10
0.0
2037
17.4
55.4
27.2
10
0.0
18.1
57
.4
24.5
10
0.0
17.8
56.4
25
.8
100.
0
2038
17.3
55.6
27.0
10
0.0
18.1
57
.7
24.2
10
0.0
17.7
56.7
25
.6
100.
0
DATA
SO
URCE
: MAN
ITO
BA B
UREA
U O
F ST
ATIS
TICS
AU
GUS
T 20
15
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 35 -
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 36 -
APPENDIX D
GLOSSARY
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 37 -
GLOSSARY
Age Specific Fertility Rate. Age specific fertility rates (ASFR) indicate the number of births per woman in a given age group.
Age Specific Survival Rate. For an individual that has survived to a given age, age specific survival rates indicate the probability of surviving at least one more year. By definition, the survival rate plus the mortality rate for a given age equals 1. Generally, age specific survival rates are calculated using a life table.
Base Population. The population provided for use as the starting point for a population projection.
Emigration. Emigration measures the outflow of Canadian citizens or landed immigrants leaving Canada to establish a permanent residence in a foreign country.
Immigration. Immigration measures the inflow of landed immigrants, i.e. people that are not Canadian citizens by birth, but have been granted the right to permanently live in Canada.
International Migration. In this report, international migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between Canada and a foreign country. A distinction is made between immigration, emigration, and other international migration. For the purposes of this report, net international migration is defined to be immigration minus emigration.
Interprovincial Migration. Interprovincial migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between one province or territory and another. In migration measures the flow of individuals to a province/territory, while out migration measures the flow from a province/territory. Net interprovincial migration is defined to be interprovincial in migration minus interprovincial out migration.
Intraprovincial Migration. Intraprovincial migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between regions of the province. In migration measures the flow of individuals to a region, while out migration measures the flow from a region. Net intraprovincial migration is defined to be intraprovincial in migration minus intraprovincial out migration.
Life Expectancy at Birth. Calculated using a life table, life expectancy at birth indicates the average number of years remaining to be lived by an individual just born.
Life Table. A life table is, in essence, one form of combining mortality rates of a population at different ages into a single statistical model. Generally, data for each gender is shown separately on the same table. Life tables are principally used to measure the level of mortality of the population being investigated. The resulting life expectancies at various age groups indicate the average number of years remaining to be lived by those surviving to that age cohort.
Linear Interpolation. A method of filling in missing data, linear interpolation assumes straight line growth between two given data points.
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 38 -
Median Age. The median age of the population in a certain year is the age at which half the people are older, and half are younger.
Natural Increase (Natural Change). The natural change is defined to be the number of births minus the number of deaths. In Manitoba, this usually results in a positive number, or natural increase.
Net Temporary Emigration. Net temporary emigration represents the variation in people living temporarily abroad that have not maintained a usual place of residence in Canada.
Net Non-permanent Residents. The number of net non-permanent residents is equal to the difference in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates. The majority of non-permanent residents are students and temporary workers, while the remainder are refugee status claimants, people with ministerial permits and non-Canadian born dependants of refugee claimants or permit holders.
Other International Migration. Other international migration is comprised of the net change in non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants.
Provincial Nominee Program. The Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program is a free economic immigration program that expedites the processing of skilled workers planning to stay in Manitoba as permanent residents, by selecting nominees based on local labour market needs.
Raking. When life tables are constructed, having an age group with zero deaths will result in an error. Raking is used to take a very small number of deaths from surrounding age groups, and add them to age groups with zero deaths. This eliminates the zeros from the death data with as little impact on the life table as possible.
Regional Cohort Component Model. The Regional Cohort Component Model is used to project the births, deaths and population for a given region on a single year of age and gender basis. Specific equations, in combination with assumptions made about the components of demographic change such as fertility, mortality and migration, are used to project regional data. Provincial totals for births, deaths and population are then aggregated from the regional results.
Returning Emigrants. Returning emigrants are people that have previously emigrated and then subsequently returned to Canada.
Total Fertility Rate. The total fertility rate (TFR) indicates the average number of children a woman could be expected to have if the current age specific fertility rates (ASFR) continued over her entire reproductive period. By convention, fertility rates are calculated for the female population between the ages of 15 and 49. By definition, the total fertility rate for a given region is equal to the sum of the age specific fertility rates for that region.
Total Net Migration. Total net migration is defined to be the sum of net intraprovincial, net interprovincial, net international and other international migration.
Interlake - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
- 39 -