MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY
CREATING PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT WILL ACCELERATE
THE TRANSITION FROM BEING DISASTER PRONE TO
BEING DISASTER RESILIENT
THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY
• Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards
A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD
• 7 billion people, and growing while…• Living and competing in an
interconnected global economy,• Producing $60 trillion of products each
year, and• Facing complex disasters every year
that can adversely impact a community’s 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.
THE 3 S’s
• SAFETY (from the potential disaster agents of recurring natural hazards)
• SECURITY • SUSTAINABILITY
THE FIVE E’s
• ECONOMY• ENERGY• ENVIRONMENT• ECOLOGY• EDUCATION
THE 1 H
• HEALTH CARE
A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.
THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER
• PEOPLE• COMMUNITY• RECURRING EVENTS (AKA
the potential disaster agents of Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
FIVE INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS
• UN--PREPARED• UN—PROTECTED• UN---WARNED• UN--ABLE TO RESPOND• UN--RESILIENT
LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST CENTURY
• Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses from recurring natural hazards striking non-disaster-resilient communities • Threats related to global climate change• Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil• Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life
LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS DURING THE 21ST CENTURY
• Poverty• Chronic hunger • Health care needs• Increasing risk of pandemic disease• Large-scale migration of people• Endangered plant and animal life • Conflict and terrorism
AN UNDESIRABLE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY
Before we realize it, we could share in an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of life on Planet Earth if we fail to design and implement a global strategy for disaster resilience.
THE “BEST SOLUTION SET” IS THE FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
• To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen, and build capacity FOR preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery in every community.
• To inform, educate, train, and build equity in all sectors of the community,
WHEN YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- JUST DO IT!
• Communities working strategically can implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions to reach the elusive goal of disaster resilience --- within EXISTING administrative, legal, and economic constraints, --- NOW.
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY
DISASTER RESILIENCE ENCOMPASSES
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND
PUBLIC POLICYPREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE,
AND RECOVERY
FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCEFIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
RECOVERYRECOVERY
ALL ELEMENTS ARE ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATEDINTERRELATED
PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS
AND EARLY AND EARLY WARNINGWARNING
PROTECTIONPROTECTION
EMERGENCY EMERGENCY RESPONSERESPONSE
ARE INTERCONNECTED ARE INTERCONNECTED
THE GLOBAL AGENDA: COMMUNITY DISASTER THE GLOBAL AGENDA: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS
EXPERIENCES WITH PROTECTION
GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
EXPERIENCES WITH EMERGENCY RESPONSE
EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY
EXPAND PARTNERSHIPS FROM 1990 TO THE PRESENT (E.G., IDNDR, AND ISDR)
FACTORS THAT FACILITATE PARADIGM SHIFTS
• PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.
• A COMMON AGENDA PROMOTED BY PARTNERSHIPS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
• INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES.
CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE
ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN EVERY REGION.
TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCETOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation
Gateways to a Deeper Understanding
Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/CommunicationVulnerability and Risk Characterization
Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations
Situation Data Bases
Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources
Cause & Effect Relationships
CAPACITY BUILDING
Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation
Seek out, Enlighten, and Enable “Partnerships”
Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Base
Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies
Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community
CONTINUING EDUCATION
Engage Partners in MMA Learning Experiences
Enlighten Communities on Their Risks
Build Strategic Equity Through “MMA” Scenarios
Multiply “Partnerships” by Regioal/global Twinning
Update Knowledge Bases After Each MMA Scenario
TURNING POINTS: TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning Emergency Response, and RecoveryEmergency Response, and Recovery
YOUR YOUR COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
DISASTER RESILIENCE DISASTER RESILIENCE
BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR:•PREPAREDNESS, EARLY. WARNING, PROTECTION•EM. RESPONSE•RECOVERY
COMMUNITY GOALSCOMMUNITY GOALS