Mega Themes of the Future and their
Implications for the Indian Auto Industry
Sarwant Singh,
Managing Partner,
Frost & Sullivan
Definition : Transformative,
global forces that define the
future world with their far-
reaching impact on businesses,
societies, economics, cultures,
and personal lives
Urbanization—
City as a
Customer
Smart Is
the New
Green
Social
Trends
Bricks and
Clicks
Innovating to
Zero
New
Business
Models
Future
Infrastructure
Development
Health,
Wellness, and
Wellbeing
Future of
Energy
Future of
Mobility Connectivity
and
Convergence
Economic
Trends
Step 1:
Define and Identify
Step 2 –
Analyze impact of
Emerging Sub-trends
Step 3 –
Identify convergent themes
Define Mega Trends and identify sub-trends Analyze future scenarios, case examples, cross-
industry implications and future market potential
Understand how sub-trends will converge into
themes that will transform social, businesses and
personal lives in 2025 and 2030
Our Mega Trend Universe
Introduction to Mega Themes of the Future
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Theme Introduction Slide: Top 12 Transformation Themes
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Transhumanism Autonomous World Connected Living
Industry 5.0 Digital Reality as
Frontier Technology Heterogeneous Society
Data as 21st Century Oil Marketplace Everywhere ‘Uberization’ of Industries
Concept of ‘Zero’ World Rise of Platform Economy Zero Latency World
Theme Introduction Slide: Top 12 Transformation Themes (2/2)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Connected Cars
5
FIVE Key Themes to Focus on...
5G AND HIGH
SPEED VEHICLE
CONNECTIVITY
1
(V2V/V2X)
MARKETPLACE
2
(on-route mobility
services)
FEATURES/
FUNCTIONS ON
DEMAND
3
(Customer
Personalization)
IOT PLATFORMS
IN VEHICLES
4
(V2V, V2X)
DATA IS
THE FUEL
5
(Monetization,
Cyber Security)
6
Spec
ific
atio
ns
Speed: 50 KBPS Speed: 250 KBPS Bandwidth: 20 MBPS
Bandwidth: 200 MBPS
Bandwidth: 1 GBPS
Analog Voice Calls
Digital Voice Calls Data
Video Streaming M2M
Dev
ice
G
en
erat
ion
1G 2G 3G 4G 5G
Serv
ice
s
Texting Internet Services
Texting
Internet Services
Texting
Video
Internet Services Texting
Video Smart Home
5G Rollout, Road Map and Vision 5G technology will enable zero latency applications such as Vehicle-to-Vehicle or Vehicle-to-Infrastructure
communications
Source: Frost & Sullivan
5G Use Cases—A Snapshot Mobility B2B Services with a defined Eco System key to 5G roll out success
8
1ms low latency
5G can support remote control and connected vehicle applications with extremely low latency and high reliability
100 Gbps peak throughput and 1Gbps user experience
5G can support ultra-HD video, AR/VR, and mobile cloud services
M2M Connectivity
5G can support massive connected devices
High-speed Mobility Over 500km/hour high mobility
Office Tens of Tbps/km2 traffic volume density
Highway End-to-end latency
Wide Area Coverage 100Mbps data rate user experience
Subways >6 persons/m2 super density
Dense Residence 1Gbps data rate user experience
Outdoor Gathering 1 million connections /Km2
Stadium 1 million connections /Km2
Big Cities High density areas, which may not be in big
cities
Marketplace Everywhere Facebook and WeChat started as social media and messaging platforms, now are evolving to become a
marketplace
Is this how it will manifest in Automotive?
9
Automotive Marketplace: Users to access multiple services based on their day to day needs and travel scenarios
Automotive Marketplace
Vehicular Features and
Applications
Retail Features Features on Demand
Telephony, Calendar, Music,
Connected Services etc.
Navigation, Traffic,
Other Mobility Modes
TPMS, Vehicle
health, Prognostic
Entertainment
and Media Food and beverages, clothing, etc.,
Geo-fenced retail and discounts
1 2
Autonomous
Features
Electric Vehicle
Features
Connected Service Features
3
10
Tentative Marketplace Services: Over 15 Bundles of Marketplace Services can be Developed by an OEM
In-Vehicle Marketplace
Vehicle Servicing
and Parts
Media (Movies,
Music, comics)
Navigation and
Location Based
Concierge (Hotel,
Reservations)
Reservations Deliveries &
Grocery
Food Delivery and
Pickup
Smart Home
(Surveillance etc.)
Retail Communication
(Video, Calling)
Feature on
Demand Upgrades
Games Parking
Charging
Tolling
11
Data Monetization On an Average 15-100 Parameters can be collected from Cars to build around 40 to 50 Use Cases
Ignition status Road Temperature
Windshield/wiper
information Latitude
DTC code
detection/clearing Speed
Fuel level Beginning/Ending
odometer reading
VIN Oil level Volumetric sensors ABS
Make/Model/ Sub-
model/year Average speed
Injector circuit
Malfunction Fuel consumption
Hard braking Throttle position
Tires pressure Accelerometer
Battery level RPM
Seatbelts Positional quality
Maximum speed Distance MIL status Steering wheel angle Event threshold
Car weight Longitude
Airbags Trip number
Timestamp Odometer
12
Data Monetization – Key Consumers and Use Cases Over 50 Use Cases Exist but only 10 to 15% currently being monetized
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Fleet Management
• GPS vehicle tracking
• Driver safety
• Operational efficiency
• Asset tracking & management
• Vehicle residual value management
• Value added services
Energy Automotive
Tier 1 to Tier 3 suppliers
Insurance Companies Retail Smart Cities
• Real time location-based promotion
• On-demand services
• Usage insights
• New Petrol station hotspots
• Electric vehicle(EV) infrastructure
optimization
• New vehicle features
• Design improvement- Performance
data from the actual users
• Data-feedback for R&D optimization
• Car battery downtime algorithm
• Usage based insurance(UBI)-
PAYD/PHYD
• Vehicle usage monitoring and scoring
• Tracking/theft protection service
• In-car offerings and targeted
advertising
• Data analytics for store location and
opening hours optimization
• Traffic flow management
• Urban planning
• Parking
• Automated road toll or taxation
• Road, infrastructure maintenance &
design improvement
• On demand deliveries
13
Automated Mobility
14
AD Services: 65% of Overall Autonomous Market in 2030 Top 12 new revenue streams for OEMs & Service Providers equating to over $200 Bn revenue in 2030
MO
BIL
ITY
SE
RIV
ICE
S
VE
HIC
LE
SE
RIV
ICE
S
PE
RIP
HE
RA
L
SE
RIV
ICE
S
LO
GIS
TIC
S
SE
RIV
ICE
S
HUB-HUB GOODS
DELIVERY
Build, Own, Operate,
Maintain [BOOM]
PARKING
SERVICES REFUSE & RECOVERY
CURBSIDE
DELIVERY
ON DEMAND
FEAUTURE UPDATES
ON DEMAND/ USER
INSURANCE
AUTONOMOUS
TAXIS
VEHICLE DATA
SERVICES
AUTONOMOUS
SHUTTLES
AUTONOMOUS
MONO PODS
PREDICTIVE/AUTO
MAINTANENCE
15
Future of Autonomous Driving Platforms CASE Convergence will lead to 3 Platforms as Building Blocks for AD Development
Electronic Platform
Vehicle Platform (Electric)
Ease of Use , User Delight 1
3D Approach for the OS 2
HMI and Infotainment Features 3
3D Car as the Menu 4
IoT Integration 5
Digital Platform
Diagnostics and Vehicle Health Monitoring
Electrical Power Systems
Backup Autonomous Driving System
Redundant Braking and Steering Systems
1
2
3
4
Redundancy ECUs 1
Domain Controllers &
Interfacing Units 2
Cyber Security Modules 3
16
Implications of Connected & Autonomous vehicles: Disruptive to
industries beyond automotive
Public transport
Parking garages
Trucking
Energy/fuel
Car repair and parts
Ride-hailing companies
eCommerce
Real estate
Insurance
Media and entertainment
Hotels
17
Future of F1 Racing is Autonomous
18
Is this the future of travel?
19
Shared: New Mobility Business Models
20
69 7 0 132 0
15,390
592 298 172
23,626
3,356
61,660
TraditionalCarsharing
P2P Carsharing CorporateCarsharing
Dynamic Shuttle MaaS Taxi Services
Market Potential From Key Mobility Cluster (In Mn), India: 2018,2030
2018 2030
Indian New Mobility Market Will Grow to $90bn market by 2030 Revenue from the taxi cluster alone expected to exceed $61 billion by 2030
21
50+ cities globally to implement DRT solutions by 2020 Increasing partnership between public authorities and private players to launch DRT service. Over 10 pilot
programs have been launched since 2017 and Shutl is the market leader in India
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Market Revenue
Fleet Size
2017
~ $ 3 billion
2030
~ $ 550 billion
2017
24k
2030
~ 5 million
• LA Metro and Via
• LA Metro and
Rideco
• Sacramento‘s
Regional Transit
agency - Micro
transit Experiment
• Metrolinx and Rideco
• Capital Metro launches
its new on demand Pickup
• The transit agency in
Nashville & TransLoc Inc
• Greater Paris‘ public
transport authority( PTA)
and Keolis - Fileo`
• Roads and Transport
Authority (RTA) - Bus
on Demand
• Transdev and
Transport for New
South Wales
• Land Transport
Authority(LTA)
and Via
• Seoul City –
On-demand Night
Owl Bus
• Transport for London (TfL) a
new ‗demand responsive‘ TfL
bus service
• MOIA (Volkswagen) on-demand electric
shuttle service in Hamburg
• SSB Flex On Demand Bus Service
22
Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Poised to Streamline Urban Mobility Pilots witnessed in more than 15 cities; collaboration between key stake holders and Standardized data
sharing platforms to facilitate adoption
Source: Frost & Sullivan
MaaS Global
Moovel
Trafi
Conduent
UbiGo
Mozio
The West Coast of US is more concentrated
with MaaS operators with Moovel, Conduent
and Mozio present in Portland, LA and San
Fransisco respectively
Europe is the Hotbed of MaaS activity with
operations in countries including UK,
Germany, Finland, Sweden, Norway Spain,
Austria and Netherlands
23
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Kansas City
Doha
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Sydney
Dubai
Washington DC
Chicago
Kuala Lumpur
Boston
Singapore
New York City
Kolkata
Chennai
Paris
Bengaluru
Moscow
Amsterdam
London
Helsinki
Seoul
Zurich
Vienna
Delhi
Mumbai
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Percent Passenger Trips, By Modes of Transport, Select Cities
Car Champions
>75% trips by car
Public Transport
Loyalists
<35% trips by car
Transitioning Cities
40-75% trips by car
Toward Sustainable Modes — Evolving Commuting Patterns across Cities Availability of multiple public transport options in India has lead to less than 35% of trips by Personal Car
Source: Frost & Sullivan
24
Greater than $20bn Between 15bn and 20bn
Between 10bn and 15bn Less than 10bn
Revenue
Deliveries
Number of
users
User
Penetration
China Revenue
(biggest market)
2018 2025
$82bn 199.4bn
6.5bn 12.5bn
841.9mn 1.5bn
11.6% 18.5%
$34bn $64.5bn
Global Online Food Delivery Market Spicing up Expected to grow from $83 Bn market to over $200 Bn by 2025, growing at 14% per year
25
Conclusion - Future consumers will think of the car as an IoT platform
for apps and services, providing integrated Mobility Services
CAR SHARING
& POOLING
INTRACITY
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
INTERCITY
PUBLIC
TRANSPORT
PHYD
INSURANCE
TRAINS/
FLIGHTS
INTEGRATION
CAR RENTAL
& LEASING
MARKET-
PLACE
FREIGHT
MOBILITY
MICRO-
MOBILITY
SOLUTIONS
ENERGY
MANAGEMENT
DEMAND
RESPONSIVE
TRANSPORT
(TAXI, BRT)
DYNAMIC
PARKING
APPS,
JOURNEY
PLANNING, BIG
DATA
CONNECTED &
CONCIERGE
SERVICES
CONNECTED
LIVING
P
26
Electrification
27
EV Market Outlook 2019 - Global Over 2.8 million electric vehicles are likely to be sold by end of 2019 with China leading the market with over 55% market share.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2018. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Africa and ME 0.5%
APAC 4.2%
China 55.0%
Europe 19.1%
Americas 21.2%
Electric Vehicle Outlook: Market Outlook, Global, 2019
BEV 67.9%
FCEV 0.2%
PHEV 31.9%
323 301 246
215 175 167 146
107 93 91
Tesla BYD RNM BJEV BMW SAIC Geely VWGroup
Hyundai Chery
1,464
501
100 80 70 69 62 61 40 34
China USA Norway Germany France UK Japan Canada Sweden Nethld.
Electric Vehicle Outlook: EV Sales Split by Top OEMs, 2018
Electric Vehicle Outlook: EV Sales Split by Country, Top 10, 2018
2,845,666 EVs sold in 2018
237 (157 BEV & 80 PHEV)
Models for Sale
~6,791671 Total EV Car Parc
>310,000 Charging Stations
28
29
Models OEMs Charging Stations Range Anxiety Battery cell
production
Challenge 2018 5 4 293 150 kms 0 GWh
Scenario 2025 75 19 AC: 1,58,000
DC: 5,400 >400 kms 30-40GWh
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan
-15
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b-1
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Jun
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Oct-
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5
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Ma
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-17
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Dec-1
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Ma
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Ap
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Ma
y-1
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Jun
-19
Jul-1
9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
e-Verito and Tigor/Tiago EV
models launched
respectively focused on
fleet
Better range, bigger car
and price slash lead to
increase in sales
Market scope limited due to
the availability of only
Mahindra e2o
Lack of Global
benchmarks leads to
slump
E-Passenger Car Outlook in India Lack of long range EVs and cost of acquisition has been the major restraint for EV uptake in India. Government needs to
encourage EV imports with tax benefits or aggressively accelerate ―make in India‖ to achieve milestones
30
Market Forecast to 2025 E-rickshaws, e-autos and e-2W are the most promising segments for electrification in India; expected to account for
over 4 million units by 2025
E2W E-Rickshaw
30,00,000
1,30,000
10,00,000
5,40,000
5,000
270,000
400
2025 2019
23X
2X
E-Auto E-Passenger car E-Bus
4,20,000
108X
3,600
105X 6,000 15X
Sales Volume growth rate
31
Perspective: Market Size of EV Component Industry in 2025 Electric Vehicle Value Chain in India is expected to reach $4.8 Billion in 2025
1/3rd
Of the EV motor market will
emerge from demand in EV
Buses in India in 2025 Electric motors $1.23 BILLION
Power electronics $1.47 BILLION
Batteries $1.86 BILLION
Charging stations $0.230 BILLION
E2W
E3W
Passenger Cars
E-Buses
KEY TRENDS
67% Will be the Passenger Car
segment‘s share in Battery
Market in 2025
61% Will be the 2W vehicle
segments' share in the Power
electronics market in 2025
15.6 Million KWh Will be the total demand for
Li-Ion battery pack in 2025
Conclusions-Future of Mobility to 2030
32
The Four Future Scenarios of Mobility
2018 - 2022
Multimodality
of Mobility
2026 - 2035
Technological
Singularity in
Mobility
2022 - 2026
Platformization
of Transport
2035 - 2050
Transcendental
Mobility
33
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Mega Trends: Strategic
Planning and Innovation Based
on Frost & Sullivan Research
Published Book:
New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives
By Sarwant Singh
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423
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