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Lähd
e: M
cKin
sey&
Com
pany
Roope Mokka Founder Demos Helsinki
Why foresight?
Planning in the age of global megatrends
@mokka
@demoshelsinki
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Lesson learnt from region 2050
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Two best outocomes 1. Foresight helps in understanding the core of strategy -
målkonflikter 2.The future-table really helps in getting rid of today’s
topics.
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Forecasting
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Mobile phones
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Laptops
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PCs
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Inhabitants
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Tax revenue
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Kilometres of roads
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Hot dogs sold
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TEDx seminars
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Consumption of energy
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Airmiles
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m2 / person
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m2 / person
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CO2 emissions
You are here
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CO2 emissions
The physical reality
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Foresight looksat these points in future.Its about understanding discontinuities.
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Instead of extrapolating a single trend (robotisation, work)it looks at a collection of megatrends to get a holistic picture.
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Megatrends
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What are megatrends: •a list! •affect everything •unlikely to go away •interact with each other •create trends, technologies and industries •may change in definition, but remain the same in essence •a short(est possible) list of phenomena you can explain the future with
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What megatrends are not:
Trends or fashions Technologies or industries Local phenomena Something you can abolish with a magic bullet
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5 Demos Helsinki Megatrends
1. Planetary technology combines bits and atoms 2. Population tetris replaces population segments 3. Individualisation turns into participation 4. The emerging metropolises become the dominant global structure 5. Resource economy delivers constant disruptions
(Demos Helsinki, 2015)
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Megatrends become real only in a given region.
Planetary technology Population tetris Individualisation becomes participation The emerging metropolis Resource disruptions
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Megatrend 1
Planetary technology combines bits and atoms. The next phase of digitalisation connects the entire planet into a web of data, that is getting beyond human control.
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When is the last time that you watched your mobile phone?
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We look at our phone every 6th minute
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In ten years time we will never look at our phones.
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Size PriceFu
nctio
-na
litie
s
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Smart Environments
Personal Computers
Smart PhonesSmart Watches
Wearables
”Smart dust”
Nearables
Mainframe computersSi
ze &
Priz
e
Functionalities
Laptops
THE LAW OF HYPERCONNECTED
PLANET
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Smart Environments
Personal Computers
Smart PhonesSmart Watches
Wearables
”Smart dust”
Nearables
Mainframe computersSi
ze &
Priz
e
Functionalities
Laptops
THE LAW OF HYPERCONNECTED
PLANET
you are
here
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Bits and atoms are joining already and its creating a lot of value. Already.
Uber ≈ $18.2bnAirbnb ≈ $30bn
Pokemon GO increased the valuation of Nintendo w. $11 bn (oops!)
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Megatrend 2
Population tetris replaces population segments. There are holes in the society and reaching everyone is hard..
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Population tetris replaces population segments
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AGEING
Population tetris replaces population segments
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Automation
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Immigration
Population tetris replaces population segments
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Megatrend 3
Individualisation happens through participation. We become individuals through participating in many informal groups.
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Swedes
Individualisation through participation replaces population segments with groups.
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Women
Men
Individualisation through participation
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Fully employedStudents
andpensioners
The unemployed
Individualisation through participation
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tech-enthusiast
Runners
foodies
scouts
cabin lovers
handi-crafters
racists
Individualisation through participation
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Individualisation through participation
Groups challenge institutions power fundamentally.
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Individualisation through participation
Reaching people with top down approach fails:
...consumer trust in brands has declined by 50% in a decade, down from 52% to 25%. Instead, people trust their peers.
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Individualisation through participation shows in new economic structures.
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Black Rock City - A Future City?• No money, everything is free• Everything is produced by the attendees
”burners”• Tickets sell in seconds• Desert city of 75 000 inhabitants• A platform for co-creation
Individualisation through participation
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Megatrend 4
The emerging metropolises become the dominant global structure. The economic and soon cultural dynamism moves to Asia and then to Africa.
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Lähd
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cKin
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pany
The emerging metropolises remake the map, beyond national states.
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Lähd
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The emerging metropolises make most of the growth and world economies
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Lähd
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The emerging global metropolises grow out of the periphery and slow growth cities.
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Megatrend 5
Resource economy delivers constant disruptions in consumption, business and infrastructure. Food, housing, transportation and energy change and become digital services.
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Resource economy delivers constant disruptions
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Resource economy delivers constant disruptions
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Resource economy under constant disruptions - mostly in housing, food and transportation.
Energy consumption per household [Eurostat]
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Regional impact of megatrends
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Megatrends become real only in a given region.
Planetary technology Population tetris Individualisation becomes participation The emerging metropolis Resource disruptions
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+ComplexityBlack swans
Megatrends mean black swans and complexity for the regional level.
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Black swans
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HOW COME WE DID NOT SEE THIS COMING?
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Complexity
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You can not do just one thing for any given action ramifies to a greater or lesser degree throughout the whole ecosystem. John C. Hendee, George H. Stankey, Robert C. Lucas - 1978 - Nature conservation
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How to plan for the future of black swans and complexity?
+ComplexityBlack swans
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+ComplexityBlack swans
Experimental foresight. =
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+ComplexityBlack swans
How does this sound to you?
=
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EXPERIMENTAL FORESIGHT IS THE NEW PLANNING.
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Forecasting vs backcasting
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NOW
FORECASTING
Future 1
Future 2
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BACKCASTING
NOW
Future 1
Future 2
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How to change the world (transformation management)
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GEELS
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GEELS
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GEELS
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Experiments (how the public sector can change the world).
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The world’s largest basic income experiment
Finland’s experiment in a nutshell:
● Duration 2 years ● Nationwide pilot ● Started on January 1, 2017. ● Covers 2,000 unemployed Finns ● Age between 25 and 58 ● Guaranteed sum of $625 / month,
which equals average monthly unemployment benefits in Finland.
● Unemployment benefits were replaced
● Payments take place even if the recipient works or has other income.
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The idea of UBI (universal basic income) is over 200 years old
Thomas Paine proposed a basic capital grant for individuals in 1797.
In 1962, economist Milton Friedman advocated a minimum guaranteed income via a “negative income tax.
Mincome was an experimental Canadian guaranteed annual income project that was held in Manitoba, during the 1970s.
From 1968 to 1982, the US and Canadian governments conducted a total of five negative income tax experiments.
Then it was forgotten for decades...
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Today, there is much UBI hype, but setting up experiments is a struggle
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How did Finland succeed in launching a nationwide UBI pilot? Secret Sauce: Experimentation Unit • Changes innovation outlook• Creates experimentation culture• Located in Prime Minister’s Office• Collects cumulative knowledge of experiments• Outsources the experiments and oversees them• Links experiments to relevant government bodies• Provides feedback loop
“...The [Experimentation Unit] model includes new and bold practices that support the interaction between the government and the civil society. It constitutes a foundation for future policy making...”
Anu Vehviläinen, FInland’s Minister for Local Government and Public Reforms
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UBI is only one of 25 strategic pilots in Finland. How was hunger for experiments created?
Design for Government Model for running experiments in ministries. The starting point.
Experimental Program Integrated in government program. It builds experimentation into ministries’ policy making functions.
Experimentation UnitLocated in the Prime Minister’s Office. Similar units exist also in some government agencies.
Experimentation in LegislationExperimentation laws are implemented, results i.e. in allowing driverless vehicles to be tested in urban conditions.
National Code of Conduct for Experiments Ethical and quality code for strategic level experiments.
Digital Crowdfunding and Crowdsourcing PlatformCitizen-led experimentation. Also used for scaling up.
Experimental CultureGovernment's systematic goal to promote and allow experimentation in different organizations and institutions.
3/2014 5/2015 3/2016
Portfolio of 25 Strategic ExperimentsThese experiments are run by the ministries and their agencies. Basic income experiment is one of them.
5/20179/2016
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Nudge unit
Core of policy design process
Linear, based on assumption of predictability
Single Experiments, non-systemic
Authentic learning in government, knowledge
cumulated inside the government
Where improvement
takes place
Policy is designed
traditionally and linearly
Policy implementation and delivery becomes
more efficient
Policy design is collaborative from beginning and
experiments gain legitimacy, leading to better policies
Public involvement
Closed and controlled, if
any
Closed and controlled Open and transparent
Methodology Planning committees,
working groups
Behavioral methods Behavioral and data methods complemented with
emancipation and participation
Desired end result
Planning gives birth to a good
policy
Experimentation improves policy’s
efficiency
Collaborative policy design and experimentation make
more broadly accepted and tested policies
Experimentation unitTraditional approach Nudge unit
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Experimental foresight VS traditional planning
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2017 20502030
Experimental Foresight
Experiments
Strategic vision
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EXPERIMENTAL FORESIGHTTRADITIONAL PLANNING
Discontinuities of multiple trends interacting
2-50 year time horizon
Great for managing transformation
Finds new numbers
Making with the future
Interested in discontinuities
Long-term vision and short term experiments
Variants of single trends
0,25-4 year time horizon
Great for managing continuity
Starts with numbers
Predicting the future
Interest in continuities
Medium term resource allocation
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LET’S DIVE IN!
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KIITOS!Tack!
Roope Mokka Founder Demos Helsinki
@mokka
@demoshelsinki