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Met Brief, 20130909Lenny Pfister, Nick Heath, and SEAC4RS met team
•Convection location and timing for Wednesday•Conditions in SEUS Wednesday and Friday•“Deep Tropical” conditions Friday -- hurricanes•MCS possibilities Wednesday and Friday
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Rain earlier in western TN – ample convection over the Gulf
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200mb anticyclone over central US (displaced from 500mb anticyclone). Ample monsoon moisture feeding into convective systems propagating across the northern tier.
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Implications for Wednesday
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Low level (to 5 kft) moisture is maintained in the Gulf on Wednesday, but mid-level dry air moves into northern Gulf. In fact, conditions today are clearly drier than yesterday because of this dry air.
Today Wednesday
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Precip forecasts for Wednesday
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Global models push precip close to coast, and, most importantly, further south than today.
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7 AM Wednesday
NCAR 3 km WRF
NAM high-res
NCAR Wrf maintains extensive precip off our coast.
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10 AM Wednesday
NCAR 3 km WRF
NAM high-res
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1 PM Wednesday
NCAR 3 km WRF
NAM high-res
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Outflow pattern at top of convection different for two models off S TX coast.
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Precip develops in northern MS in the afternoon – scattered T-storms in unstable air ahead of front, so have high clouds in region
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Continued hot in the southeast, with low level winds counterclockwise around high. Warmest temps to western portion of SEUS.
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Precip probability
Max Temp
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Implications for Friday -- Gulf Surprise!?
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As Jim alluded to yesterday, models predict enhanced 850mb vorticity late Thursday
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108 Hours (7 AM Friday), looks to be best developed circulation. HS3 considering a Thursday flight.
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Outflow pattern is mostly south, but could get access to some of that in a Cuba-Yucatan flight. But best shot for getting idea of what is coming up is to go through the storm.
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CALIPSO overpass favorable for a yucatan –Cuba flight
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We will be flying between red and yellow line – temperatures progged to cool. EC convection east of Yucatan progged to be less than normal as pouch goes east into Gulf of Campeche. DC8 goes to developing storm, ER-2 through the Yucky strait??
Pfister’s Pforecast
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Implications for Friday – wx in US
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Continued hot in western pocket of SEUS ahead of slowly moving front.
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Some precip expected ahead of front – line of instability
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Based on precip probability, proximity of front, and direction of flow, high probability of severe clear will probably be in TX and southern LA.