Michael BurchNovember 11, 2010
2000◦ US Cole Attack
2001◦ 9/11◦ Afghanistan
2002◦ Bali
2003◦ Iraq
2004◦ Madrid
2005◦ London
2007◦ Bhutto Assassination
2008◦ Mumbai Hotel Attacks
Defining Modern Terrorism Where do Terrorists Come From?
◦ Motivations◦ Location
Exploring Contemporary Case Studies◦ IRA, Tamil Tigers & Al-Qaeda
Strategies of Terrorism Responses to Terrorism
No agreed upon definition◦ Use of Violence◦ Public Act and Use of Fear◦ Motivation for Attack◦ Identity of Target◦ Identity of Attacker◦ Planned with a Clear Purpose
Gain Supporters and Coerce Opponents
Where do they come from?◦Weak States are not a good base because
there is uncertainty and instability◦Piazza (2008) argues that weak and failed
states not only attract terrorists but provide a fertile recruiting ground for transnational terror
What are their backgrounds?◦Tend to be well-educated◦Live in regions with high unemployment
Religious Grievances◦ “Derelict Arabic terrorists in the air
arrogant apparent to punish people by their heritage…your God is with you…Cause if you right and, know you right, then where's your righteous ways?” -Gorillaz featuring D12
Economic Grievances◦ “How many no money boyz are rowdy? How many
start a war?”-M.I.A. Political Grievances
◦ “I’m out for presidents to represent me.”- Nas
Founded: 1922 Finances
◦ Crime◦ Diaspora
Methods ◦ Car Bombs◦ Assassinations
Motivations◦ United Ireland free
of British influence
The “Troubles” Fractionalization Take the fight to
Britain 1982 Hyde Park
Bombing Good Friday
Accords
Founded: 1976 Finances
◦ Diaspora Operations
◦ Suicide Terrorism◦ Assassination
Motivation ◦ Independent
homeland for Tamil population
Suicide attacks begin in the 1980s
Assassinate former PM of India
Role of Diaspora May 17, 2009
◦ Admit Defeat
Founded: 1980s Finances
◦ Bin Laden Fortune◦ Islamic Charities
Methods◦ “Defensive Jihad”
Motivations◦ Reduce US presence in
Middle East◦ Capture Jerusalem◦ Replace Apostate
Rulers
Fought the Soviets in the 1980s
Wanted to fight Saddam in 1990
Turned to attacking US/Saudi Arabia
1998 Embassy Bombings
Attrition◦ Terrorists seek to persuade target they are strong
enough to impose great costs Intimidation
◦ Directed towards population to convince them government cannot protect
Provocation◦ Get government to respond indiscriminately to
attacks
Spoiling◦Moderates representing terrorist
concerns are weak Outbidding
◦Convince public that terrorist group has greater resolve than rival groups
Attrition◦Concede inessential issues◦Targeted retaliation
Intimidation◦“clear and hold” strategies◦Strengthening law enforcement
responses
Provocation◦Discriminatory Response: Invest in
Intelligence Spoiling
◦Build trust and reduce vulnerability Outbidding
◦Reward strategies of non-violent groups
Target Hardening Enhanced Security
◦ US Patriot Act Other Defensive
Measures◦ Used for attrition
campaigns, like the Wall in Israel
Lyall(2010) ◦ Co-ethnic sweeps
Pape’s Dying to Win (2005)◦ “Understanding that suicide terrorism is mainly a
response to foreign occupation rather than the product of Islamic fundamentalism has important implications for how the United States and its allies should conduct the war on terrorism.”
Defeating Current Generation◦ Military and Concessions do not work
Preventing Next Generation◦ Pull out of the Middle East
Do not achieve their goals Do not attack as a last resort They reflexively reject compromises Possess protean political platforms Generally carry out anonymous attacks Routinely attack each other They resist disbanding even when it
becomes clear they wont achieve their goal
Terrorist attacks have decreased Intensity has Increased Attacks have shifted from the West to
Middle East & South Asia Attempted Yemen attacks have been
thwarted Be Happy!
Popular Culture Academia
Film◦ The Dark Knight◦ Paradise Now◦ The Kingdom◦ Munich◦ War of the Worlds◦ Inglourious Basterds◦ Taxi to the Darkside
TV ◦ 24◦ Battlestar Galactica◦ PBS’s Frontline
Music◦ Immortal Technique◦ M.I.A.
Books◦ Robert Pape. Dying to Win: The
Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
◦ Steven Coll. Ghost Wars Articles
◦ Andrew Kydd and Barbara Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism.”
◦ Jason Lyall. “Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents?
◦ Max Abrahms. “What Terrorists Really Want.”
Databases ◦ START:
http://www.start.umd.edu/start/data/#gtd