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Middle-Income Housing AffordabilityPresentation by Wendell Cox to the
American Dream ConferenceNovember 7, 2015
Brisbane
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MIDDLE INCOMEHOUSING
AFFORDABILITY
G-20 Priorities:
Better Standard of Living
Alleviating Poverty
RequiresMiddle-Income
Housing Affordability
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Discretionary Income (=)
Gross IncomeMinus
Taxes and Necessities(Such as Housing, Transportation
& Clothing)
Discretionary IncomeDEFINES THE STANDARD OF LIVING & POVERTY
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From Levittown NY toLakewood
Democratization of ProsperityASSOCIATED WITH HOME OWNERSHIP
Lakewood, California
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9 Nations86 Major Markets378 Total Markets
MEDIAN MULTIPLEMedian house price
divided byMedian household income
Rating Median MultipleSeverely Unaffordable 5.1 & OverSeriously Unaffordable 4.1 to 5.0Moderately Unaffordable 3.1 to 4.0Affordable 3.0 & Under
Table 1
Housing Affordability Rating Categories
Measuring Housing Affordability THE DEMOGRAPHIA SURVEY
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Distance from City Centre
Land
Val
ue BEFORE URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY
Figure 6
Urban Growth Boundary & Land ValuesTHE THEORY
AFTER URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY
LOCATION OF URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY (Land Value Gap)
Leading theorists:Lower costs of higherdensity housing would
negate land price increases
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OUTSIDE UGB$16,000Per AcreINSIDE UGB$180,000Per Acre
Impact of Urban Growth BoundaryPORTLAND RAW LAND VALUES: ADJACENT TO UGB
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House Price to Income RatioINTERNATIONAL:1980s-2000s
3.0 MaximumAffordability
Standard
All major markets werebelow or near 3.0
before urban containment.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Australia
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Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
1988-2002Introduction to
4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.
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Recognition of the Problem GOVERNMENT OF NEW ZEALAND
Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister
New ZealandIntroduction to
9th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
Land has been made artificially scarce by regulation that locks up land for development. This regulation has made land supply unresponsive to demand.
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Paul Cheshire ECONOMIST
Urban containment is Irreconcilable with
Housing affordability
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Virtually allincreased inequality
is in higherhousing values
Much due toHousing regulation
-Rognlie, MIT
All Lost Equality in Housing?THE “DISAPPEARING” MIDDLE CLASS
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London
Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam
-Vermuelen & OmmerenNetherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch.
Excessive Land Regulation: Lost GDPEUROPEAN & US RESEARCH
$2T GDP Loss: US-Hsieh & Moretti
UIC & UCB
20% less job growththan expected in
metropolitan areaswith strongest
land use regulation-Raven Saks
US Federal Reserve Board
Higher commercialDevelopment costs
-Cheshire & HilburLondon School of Economics
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1950
1960
1970
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10Less Restrictive MarketsMore Restrictive Markets: Outside CaliforniaCalifornia (All More Restricted Markets)
Med
ian
Mul
tiple Annual Data Begins at 1980
Middle-Income Housing AffordabilityMAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: 1950 – 2014
Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income
Derived from Census Bureau, Harvard University and Demographia.
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California Mississippi0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
23.4%
15.3%
Housing Adjusted Poverty Rates: 2013UNITED STATES, CALIFORNIA & MISSISSIPPI
Source: US Census Bureau
Mississippi has historicallyhad the
worst poverty
CaliforniaLegislative Analysts Report
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CALIFORNIA:NEED TO
LIBERALIZEREGULATIONS
Far from helping, they are making it particularly difficult
for Latino and African American
households to own a home
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"Suburbs rarely cease growing of their own accord.
The only reliable way to stop them …is to stop them forcefully. But the consequences of
doing that are severe."
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welcomeforeigners
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• New Zealand– Legislation– Productivity Commission
• Auckland– Affordability target
• Florida– Repealed Smart Growth
Progress: New Zealand & FloridaREFORM COMES FROM THE OUTSIDE, NOT PLANNING
Auckland
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NEW ZEALANDPRODUCTIVITYCOMMISSION
Proposal
Housing affordabilitygreenfield
landrelease
The purpose of urban areas is to improve the
affluence of their residents
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Outcomes….
•decline in home ownership rates;
•increasing shares of their income to housing, with associated impacts on wellbeing;
•a more uneven distribution of national wealth;
•ongoing overcrowding, with associated health and social costs;
•a greater risk of economic volatility and macroeconomic instability; •barriers to labour market mobility; •an undermining of the effectiveness of monetary policy to manage economy-wide inflation •pressure on fiscal policy, through direct and indirect paths.54
For example, through social housing.
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The Commission does not have a preference for whether cities grow out or up. Our larger cities will always have an element of both. In any event, what matters ultimately are the preferences of households and whether they have available to them choice of housing types at different price points to cater for a range of income levels.
Non-Ideological Approach
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Councils in our largest cities should be able to pursue the goal of a compact urban form if that is what their communities want.
The key test is whether they deliver sufficient development capacity to house a growing population while delivering a choice of quality, affordable dwellings of the type demanded by purchasers.
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Where large discontinuities emerge between the price of land that can be developed for housing and land that cannot be developed, this is indicative of the inadequacy of development capacity being supplied within the city
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OUTSIDE UGB$16,000Per AcreINSIDE UGB$180,000Per Acre
Impact of Urban Growth BoundaryPORTLAND RAW LAND VALUES: ADJACENT TO UGB
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Productivity CommissionRecommendations
– Right to plan
– Obligation
– Plans not reflecting preferences
– Differential at UGB
– Creates national externalities
– Event based trigger: Release greenfield land
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What we are saying is we have to take
into account the whole of New Zealand
and future generations…
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"That's denying a whole generation of New Zealanders affordable housing options in areas where they want to live. We are going to say from central Government's view that affordable housing is a matter of national importance and we are going to require councils, like Auckland Council, to restrict the use of density and height controls so they can't be used to prevent affordable housing being built.""It will be a reduction in the veto power of existing residents. At the moment ... they put a premium on the right of neighbours to object in a community. What we are saying is we have to take into account the whole of New Zealand and future generations who desperately need affordable housing."
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