Download - MII Pitch - FungPoindexterShoko
American Tower Corporation
Michigan Interactive Investments 2016 Stock Pitch Competition
Julian Fung Michael Poindexter David Shoko
Compelling Valuation Strong Growth Drivers Market leader in Tower Industry
Robust Business Model
Highlights
American Tower is Poised for Steady Long-Term Growth
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
BUYCurrent Price:
$112.63(As of 9/28/2016)
Target Price:$132.58Upside:+17.7%
• One of largest Wireless Communications and Broadcast Operator
• Over 144,000 towers globally
• 700+ Distributed Antenna Services (DAS)
• Business segments:• Global rental & management • Network development services
Business Description
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Business Description
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
AT&T (U.S.) 17%
Verizon 15%
Sprint 10%
T-Mobile 8%
Other U.S.(2) 8%
International Tenant
Revenue 28%
International Pass-through Revenue
13%
Property Revenue by Customer (1)
16%
9%
Total Revenue by Segment
US Latin America Asia EMEA
17% 58%
Business Model
• Recurring revenue streams• Non-cancellable • Initial 10 year contract;
5 year renewals
• Low variable cost • Accommodating
additional tenants
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
$9
$10
$14
$19
$20
$23
$27
$32
AMT Non-CancellableLease Revenue
($ in Billions, As of Period End)
$30
3%
13%
24%
8%
17%
25%
13%
21%
32%
12%
23%
33%
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
One Tenant Two Tenants Three Tenants
Sample Return on Investments(2)
Domestic Market Africa IndiaLatAm
American Tower History
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
American Tower Today
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Industry OverviewPorter’s Five Forces
Degree of Rivalry – MODERATELY HIGH
New Entrants – LOW
Substitutes – LOW
Supplier Power – LOW
Buyer Power - MODERATE
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Degree of Rivalry
New Entrants
SubstitutesSupplier Power
Buyer Power
0
5
Industry OverviewSWOT Analysis
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
•
Strengths Weaknesses• Global presence
• Recurring revenue model
• Large asset base
• Client base
• Inability to control demand
Opportunities Threats• Smartphone and data
demand
• 5G
• Increasing telecom investments
• Spectrum availability
• Mergers
• New technologies could impact demand
Growth/Demand Drivers• Increasing mobile data traffic:
• 3G/4G deployment & enhancements• 50% market share through 2025
• 5G roadmap
• Expanding global presence:• Verizon acquisition• India tower acquisition
• September REIT split$1,426
$4,680
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Total Property Revenue($ in Millions)
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Growth/Demand Drivers• Consistent U.S. demand
• 13% CAGR• Low churn rate (1-2%)
• Strong international growth• 24% CAGR
19,606
40,089
$890 $965 $1,041$1,178
$1,314$1,497
$1,680
$1,999
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
U.S. Property Operating Profit($ in Millions)Operating Profit Tower Count
~2.4 Tenants per Tower ~2.2 Tenants per Tower
$2,340
International Property Operating Profit ($ in Millions)
Operating Profit Tower Count
$140 $166 $172$217
$338
$705
$574
$453
$805
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3,201
60,042
~1.8 Tenants per Tower ~1.6 Tenants per Tower
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Dividends
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Quarter Common Stock
Q2 2016 $0.53Q1 2016 $0.51Q4 2015 $0.49Q3 2015 $0.46Q2 2015 $0.44Q1 2015 $0.42
Investments Thesis
• Market leader in the tower industry space
• Acquisitions create greater economies of scale
• Increase deployment 3G/4G networks across the world
• Introduction of 5G network is a huge growth catalyst
• Healthy cash flow provides room for dividend growth
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Investment Risks
• A network carrier merger would affect revenues
• Reduction in CapEx spending by carriers
• Acquisition integration risk
• Rise in interest rates adversely affects the REIT
sector
• Loss in Credit RatingIntroduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Valuation
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
DCF$131.16
50%
P/FFOMultiple $133.98
25%
Target Price:
$132.58
• Discounted Cash Flow (50%):• Net Operating
Income(NOI)• Free Cash Flow
Relative Multiple Valuation (50%):
• P/FFO* (25%)• EV/EBITDA (25%)
Use of Funds From Operations (FFO) - Depreciation not a business cost for REITs*
EV/EBITDA
Multiple $134.03
25%
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Assumptions:
• Projected High Growth Rate of 8% • Terminal growth of 4%
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
WACC:6.18%
DCF (50%): $131.16
Relative Valuation
Assumptions (next year):
• Adjusted FFO: $6.45 (High CapEx by AMT)• FFO: $3.30
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
Multiples (50%): $134.01
Compelling Valuation Strong Growth Drivers Market leader in Tower Industry
Robust Business Model
Highlights
BUY
Introduction
Company Overview
Industry Overview
Investment Thesis Valuation Summary
American Tower is Poised for Steady Long-Term Growth
Current Price:$112.63
(As of 9/28/2016)
Target Price:$132.58Upside:+17.7%