Download - Missouri Basin Climate Outlook January 2012
Missouri Basin Climate Outlook January 2012
John S. EiseClimate Services Program ManagerDeputy Chief, Scientific Services DivisionCentral Region HeadquartersJanuary 24, 2011John. [email protected]
Gavins Point Dam – July 2011
Current Conditions Less snow than last year in plains and mountains Warmer conditions than last year La Nina conditions still exist – different manifestation
Predictions Slightly better chances of cooler over mountains Slightly better chances of wetter conditions mountains-
plains Arctic Oscillation leaning cooler through end of January,
then neutral – La Nina continues through spring Caveat
Approaching the midpoint of the snow season- still a significant amount of the snow season left.
Key Points
Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters
Warm Phase of AO
Cold Phase of AO
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The Arctic Oscillation and Winter Impacts over the U.S.
Influences the number and intensity of weather events (including extremes)
A Winter “Wildcard”:
No capability to forecast beyond a week or two.
Soil Moisture Comparison Current Dec. 2011 Jan. 2011
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor/curr/conus.mexico/main_sm.multimodel.shtml
Mountain Snow Comparison2012 (left) vs 2011 (right)
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl
January 18th, 2012
Northern Basin Snow Water Equivalent Comparison
December 14th, 2011
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Current vs. last month
January 18th, 2012
Northern Basin Snow Water Equivalent Comparison
January 18th, 2011
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
Current vs. last year
Missouri River Snow Pack
http://www.nwd-mr.usace.army.mil/rcc/reports/snow.pdf
Precipitation ComparisonDeparture from Normal Since October 1
2012 2011http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/
Temperature ComparisonDeparture from Normal Since October 1
2011-12 2010-11
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/
2 weeks out (8-14 days) February 3 Months (February – March – April) 3 Months (March – April – May) 3 Months (April – May – June) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Climate Outlooks
http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm /
PrecipitationRest of January
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
February Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
February Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities
(February –March - April)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities
(March – April - May)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
3 Month Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities
(April – May - June)
Climate Situational Awareness Pagehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/bis/?n=climate_sa
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center: www.ncdc.noaa.gov
Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
• Climate Portal: www.climate.gov
• U.S. Drought Monitor: www.drought.gov
• NRCS National Water & Climate Center: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/
• USGS WaterWatch: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/new/
Further Information
Typical La Nina BehaviorDec-Jan-Feb &Jan-Feb-Mar
Temperature Precipitation Snow
Current El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Status
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La NiñaConditions Continue(1/20/11)
January ENSO Outlook
IRI/CPC Compiled El Nino SouthernOscillationStatistical and Dynamical Models
Predictions of what could happen to the El Nino – La Nina cycle over the next year
Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters
