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“Missouri’s Changing Face: Opportunities and Challenges of
Tomorrow”by
Dr. Daryl J. Hobbs
March 15,2004
http://www.oseda.missouri.edu
Missouri Department of Natural Resources Conference on Demographic Change
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New Economic DevelopmentConsiderations
1. Globalization
2. Revolution in Telecommunications
3. Cost of Living
4. Quality of Life
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Number of Missouri Local Governments Number of Missouri Local Governments by Type - States: 1997by Type - States: 1997
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2000
Missouri U.S. MissouriNational Rank
All Governmental Units 3,416 87,453 6thCounties 114 3,043 4thMunicipalities 944 19,372 5thSchool Districts 537 13,726 9thSpecial Districts 1,497 34,683 6th
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Change in Population 1980-2000
•Missouri’s population increased from 4,917,000 in 1980 to 5,117,000 in 1990 – an increase of 4.1 percent.
•Population increased from 5,117,000 in 1990 to 5,595,000 in 2000 – an increase of 9.3 percent – more than double the increase during the 1980s.
•However, national population which increased by 9.8 percent during the 1980s increased by 13.1 percent in 2000. There were 29 states whose population increased by a larger percentage than Missouri during the 1990s.
•Therefore, even though Missouri population increased by more than twice the rate in the 1990s than during the 1980s, it dropped from being the 15th most populated state in 1990 to 17th in 2000.
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Missouri’s Metro and Non-Metro PopulationMissouri’s Metro and Non-Metro Population
SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing [2000 SF1; 1990 STF1]Table produced by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (Feb. 2002)
Number Percent Births Deaths Natural Increase
Net Migration
478,138 9.3 753,673 534,120 219,553 258,585
303,930 8.7 533,051 335,423 197,628 106,302
92,061 9.4 151,194 92,855 58,339 33,722100,232 5.3 289,492 181,937 107,555 -7,323111,637 18.3 92,365 60,631 31,734 79,903174,208 10.7 220,637 198,711 21,926 152,282
Change, 1990-2000 Components of Change, 1990-2000
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Characteristics of Population, 2000
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Households
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Percent Change in Missouri Population by Percent Change in Missouri Population by Age Cohorts, 1990-2000Age Cohorts, 1990-2000
0.2
11.9
3.6
-13.3
29.6
10.9
3.2
21.4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
SOURCE: USDC, Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, Summary File 1 (2000); Summary Tape File 1 (1990)Produced by: The Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis, UOE [E.J. Cleveland, Nov. 2001]
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Impact ofTransfer Payments
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Transfer Payments as a Percent of Total Personal Income 2000
Transfer payments have become an important part of income, especially in many rural counties. Transfer payments are a part of personal income for those persons who are entitled to them. In fact, those payments are often referred to as entitlements. They include such well known programs as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment compensation, etc. The types of payments are shown on the following graph which indicates that 41 percent of total transfer payments are Social Security, 21 percent are Medicare and 19 percent Medicaid. Together, Social Security and Medical payments account for more than 80 percent of total transfer payments. The map shows there are 75 counties in which transfer payments account for more than 20 percent of total county personal income. In 16 of those counties transfer payments account for more than 30 percent of total personal income. It is generally in smaller rural counties in which transfer payments account for more than 20 percent of personal income. The greatest concentrations of those counties are in rural north and rural southeast.
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Missouri Transfer Payments, 1999 ($000)Missouri Transfer Payments, 1999 ($000)
Source: USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System
1999Pct. Of
Total
Total Transfer Payments 20,965,085
Retirement & Disability Insurance Benefit Payments 8,773,930 41.9Social Security 8,424,338 40.2Other 349,592 1.7Medical Payments 8,402,601 40.1Medicare Payments 4,615,910 22.0Public Assistance Medical Care 3,752,158 17.9Military Medical Insurance Payments 34,533 0.2Income Maintenance Benefit Payments 1,765,870 8.4Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Payments 489,243 2.3Family Assistance 234,759 1.1Food Stamps 350,967 1.7Other Income Maintenance 690,901 3.3Unemployment Insurance Benefits Payments 298,001 1.4State Unemployment Insurance Compensation 289,968 1.4Other Unemployment Compensation 122 0.0Veterans Benefit Payments 493,154 2.4Fed Ed. & Train. Assist. Payments (excl. vets) 213,183 1.0Other Payments To Individuals 12,948 0.1Payments To Nonprofit Institutions 590,840 2.8Federal Government Payments 145,778 0.7State and Local Government Payments 262,794 1.3Buisness Payments 182,868 0.9Buisness Payments To Individuals 414,558 2.0
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Missouri Transfer Payments by Type, 2000
Other8%
Medicare21%
Medicaid19%
Unemployment benefits
1%
Social Security41%
Veterans benefits2%
Income Maintenance
8%
Source: USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information SystemPrepared by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis - (OSEDA)
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Racial Minorities
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Latino Population
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Missouri Hispanic Population, 1990-2000Missouri Hispanic Population, 1990-2000
NOTE:* Newton is a metropolitan county but is included in the Top 8 agriculture producing counties** The eight Missouri counties having the greatest agricultural commodity sales also had the greatest non-metro Hispanic population increases during the 1990sSource: USDC, Bureau of the Census, "Census of Population and Housing"
2000 1990 Number Percent 2000 1990
Missouri 118,592 61,702 56,890 92.2 2.1 1.2
Total Metropolitan Areas* 88,137 49,315 38,822 78.7 2.4 1.5
NonMetropolitan Counties 30,455 12,207 18,248 149.5 1.5 0.7Top 8 Agriculture Producing Counties** 6,638 815 5,823 714.5 4.0 0.6Remainder of Non-Metro Counties 23,817 11,392 12,425 109.1 1.3 0.7
Change Pct. Of Total Population
Hispanic Population
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Hispanic School Enrollment in McDonald County by School Year
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Enrollment
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Year
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, Core DataPrepared by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis – (OSEDA)
Chart Generated on 3.5.2002
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Hispanic School Enrollment in Taney County by School Year
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Enrollment
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Year
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, Core DataPrepared by: University Outreach and Extension, Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis – (OSEDA)
Chart Generated on 3.5.2002
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Income
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Education
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Population Change by Year, 2000-2002
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5,629
,707
5,595
,211
5,561
,948
5,521
,765
5,481
,193
5,431
,553
5,378
,247
5,324
,497
5,271
,175
5,217
,101
5,170
,800
5,128
,880
5,116
,901
4,800,000
4,900,000
5,000,000
5,100,000
5,200,000
5,300,000
5,400,000
5,500,000
5,600,000
5,700,000
1-Jul-9
0
1-Jul-9
1
1-Jul-9
2
1-Jul-9
3
1-Jul-9
4
1-Jul-9
5
1-Jul-9
6
1-Jul-9
7
1-Jul-9
8
1-Jul-9
9
April 1
2000
1-Jul-0
1
1-Jul-0
2
Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Missouri
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
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44,34
8
34,49
6
33,26
340
,183
40,57
2
49,64
053,30
653
,750
53,32
254
,074
46,30
1
41,92
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Jul '9
0 - Ju
l '91
Jul '9
1 - Ju
l '92
Jul '9
2 - Ju
l '93
Jul '9
3 - Ju
l '94
Jul '9
4 - Ju
l '95
Jul '9
5 - Ju
l '96
Jul '9
6 - Ju
l '97
Jul '9
7 - Ju
l '98
Jul '9
8 - Ju
l '99
Jul '9
9 - A
pr '00
Apr '0
0 - Ju
l '01
Jul '0
1 - Ju
l '02
Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Missouri
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
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555
-827-24
8
47953
582
3
2,242
1,994
1,626
2,588
2,136
1,743
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Jul '9
0 - Ju
l '91
Jul '9
1 - Ju
l '92
Jul '9
2 - Ju
l '93
Jul '9
3 - Ju
l '94
Jul '9
4 - Ju
l '95
Jul '9
5 - Ju
l '96
Jul '9
6 - Ju
l '97
Jul '9
7 - Ju
l '98
Jul '9
8 - Ju
l '99
Jul '9
9 - A
pr '00
Apr '0
0 - Ju
l '01
Jul '0
1 - Ju
l '02
Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southeast Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
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7,408
9,184
8,407
11,17
1
11,06
412,42
713
,096
16,59
918
,699
17,67
9
14,09
4
13,57
6
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Jul '9
0 - Ju
l '91
Jul '9
1 - Ju
l '92
Jul '9
2 - Ju
l '93
Jul '9
3 - Ju
l '94
Jul '9
4 - Ju
l '95
Jul '9
5 - Ju
l '96
Jul '9
6 - Ju
l '97
Jul '9
7 - Ju
l '98
Jul '9
8 - Ju
l '99
Jul '9
9 - A
pr '00
Apr '0
0 - Ju
l '01
Jul '0
1 - Ju
l '02
Change in Total Population Estimates by Year, 1990-2002Southwest Missouri Extension Region
SOURCE: Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population EstimatesProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/12/03)
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School Enrollment
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Percent Change in School EnrollmentMissouri
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)
5.630%
2.540%
0.098%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
'91 - '95 96 - '00 '01 - '03
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3.6
-2.8
-2.6
-0.5
2.5
9.3
10.9
10.8
10.2
11.3
11.0
13.4
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
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92
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Annual Numerical Change in Total School Enrollment by Year, 1991-2003 (in thousands)
Missouri
SOURCE: Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary EducationProduced by: University Outreach and Extension – Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (6/26/03)
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To obtain Population Estimates for your County or City
go to:
http://mcdc.missouri.edu/trends/estimates.html
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Regions New Core Based Statistical Areas
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The Missouri Census Data Center has created a report that shows the just released definitions of Core Based Statistical Areas for Missouri. The CBSA's are a replacement for the metropolitan areas. We still have entities called MSA's (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) but the criteria for defining them has changed. It changed just enough to allow Jefferson City to now be classified as an MSA even though it does not have a central city of 50,000. Instead it has a "core area" with 50,000 people and it doesn't matter whether this population cluster happens to all fall within an incorporated place. Entirely new micropolitan areas have also been created based on the same concept as MSA’s except the core area does not have to be as large. Missouri has lots of these.
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REGIONALIZATION WORK RETAIL TRADE HEALTH CARE IMPLICATIONS
Community Public Finance
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To obtain 2000 County to County Work Flow Reports go to:
http://mcdc2.missouri.edu/data/workflow/reports/
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CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING REGIONS› All Economies are Regional› Regional Centers are vital to regional viability:
They are essential to growth but not necessarily the location of growth. The population of a place is not necessarily the determining factor in
whether it is a regional center or not.
› Missouri is one of the most economically, geographically and culturally diverse states in the U.S It would facilitate planning and delivery of services if regional boundaries
were drawn so that counties within a region were relatively homogeneous while the differences between regions would be relatively great. That would facilitate more effective targeting of training and educational services.
Ironically regional centers are more alike than the regions they serve.
› Transportation routes are a consideration in establishing regional boundaries. A concern is accessibility and it is easier to get to some regional centers from one direction than another.
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Agriculture and Land Use
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