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Keywan Riahi International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Osterreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften
Wien, 24 November 2014
Mitigation of Climate Change
Key Insights from IPCC AR5
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
GHG emissions growth has accelerated despite reduction efforts.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
About half of cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
There is far more carbon in the ground than emitted in any baseline scenario.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Limiting warming to 2°C involves substantial technological, economic and institutional
challenges.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Without additional mitigation, GHG emissions continue to increase by a factor of about two compared to today.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
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Baselines
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.
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~ 3ᵒC
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.
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~ 3ᵒC
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon energy.
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~ 2ᵒC
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation involves substantial upscaling of low-carbon energy.
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~ 3ᵒC ~ 2ᵒC
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Actions over the next 5-15 years
will be critical
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Sweden & France after
the oil crisis
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Collapse of the former
Soviet Union
Europe WWI & II
(>4%)
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
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The Cancun Pledges are inconsistent with reaching 2C
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Reaching low stabilization requires rapid decarbonization of energy supply + efforts
across all sectors
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Decarbonization of energy supply is a key requirement for stabilizing atmospheric CO2eq concentrations below 580 ppm.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Decarbonization of energy supply is a key requirement for stabilizing atmospheric CO2eq concentrations below 580 ppm.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Achieving low stabilization requires substantial investments, which can lead to
co-benefits for other local or national policy objectives
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns and appropriate policies.
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Sustainable development means
overcoming several energy challenges
Energy Security
Climate Change Air Pollution
Image sources: NASA, http://www.powernewsnetwork.com/white-house-releases-plan-to-cut-oil-imports-by-13-by-2025/1798/, http://wheresmyamerica.wordpress.com/2007/08/26/i-cant-
see-my-america/, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2009/05/14/6142/energy-poverty-101/, http://today.uconn.edu/blog/2010/12/reclaiming-water-a-green-leap-
forward/, http://te.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B0%A6%E0%B0%B8%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%A4%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%B0%E0%B0%82:Forest_Osaka_Japan.jpg
Energy Poverty
Water
Land Use & Forests
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation can help to reduce energy security concerns
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Integration across climate and other objectives is key for cost-effectivly addressing environmental challenges
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
APCC-AAR14: Austria in the context of global climate
change
With substantial
mitigation
Change in average surface temperature
in case of high emissions
(1986–2005 to 2081–2100)
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Thank you!
IIASA-IPCC database:
https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB