Download - MIXX 2013: Terraform Media "House of Cards"
The Real “House of Cards”
IAB MIXX ConferenceMarch 21, 2013a presentation by Dan Hill
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How emerging mainstream behaviours such as Binge Watching, Second Screen and Cord Cutting are apt to change the TV video business and how this could impact media spending patterns. 2
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Canadian Broadcast TV IndustryRevenues in $ Millions 2011 3
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2012
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Canadian Broadcast TV IndustryRevenues in $ Millions 2011 3
Advertising$3,553
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2012
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Canadian Broadcast TV IndustryRevenues in $ Millions 2011 3
Other$429
Advertising$3,553
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2012
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Canadian Broadcast TV IndustryRevenues in $ Millions 2011 3
Television Services$10,991
Other$429
Advertising$3,553
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2012
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Canadian Broadcast TV IndustryRevenues in $ Millions 2011 4
Subscriber Revenues$2,403
Cable, Satellite & IPTV$8,588
Other$429
Advertising$3,553
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2012
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TV Services & Residential InternetRevenues in $ Millions 2011 5
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
TV Services Residential InternetSource: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2012
$10,991
$4,900
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6
Tel-e-vi-sion noun
1. a system for transmitting visual images and sound that are reproduced on screens, chiefly used to broadcast programs for entertainment, information, and education.
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7
We love TV
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We’re different TV viewers at different times
8
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The sofa and laziness rules
9
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Netflix subscribers watch it a lot - and most of their time is spent on the TVShare of Netflix Viewing by Screen*Anglophone Netflix Viewers** 18+ 10
Smartphone4%
Tablet4%
Computer27%
TV65%
Source: Media Technology Report *Hours of watching Netflix on specific devices was only asked to the Landline sample ** Past month
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11Long tail value by Genre
No TailValue is
Immediate
Long TailValue is
spread over time
Sports Political Humour
News Reality
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12Long tail value by Genre
No TailValue is
Immediate
Long TailValue is
spread over time
Documentary Drama
Sitcom
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Binge Watching
13
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Time Spent* by Activity: Watching Regular TV, Internet TV and NetflixAnglophones 18+Hours Per Week 14
0
5
10
15
20
25
No Netflix Netflix
Regular TV** Internet TV Netflix
Source: Media Technology Report ** Cable, satellite, IPTV or off-air TV * Survey respondents tend to underestimate time spent with traditional media (e.g. TV) and overestimate use of new technology (e.g. Internet) NOTE: Some overlap may exist between Netflix hours and Internet TV hours.
1
15
6
4
11
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Serialized and Episodic Programs 15
Serialized ProgrammingDefining Characteristics:• Stories resolve within episode• Emphasis on formula (e.g.
procedural) over character • Typically programs do well as
Repeats • Weaker online
Episodic ProgrammingDefining Characteristics:• Long story arcs• Emphasis on character
development and complex relationships
• Obsessive fan base• Strong online following
Game of ThronesDownton Abbey
Breaking Bad
The Good WifeElementaryNew Girl
NCISModern Family
CSI
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Appointment TV and Binge TV 16
Appointment TV
Can’t be missed, we set our schedules around it
We like to be part of the shared experience
Time between episodes to reflect and imagine
Binge TV
A great thing to do, especially when we have a block of time
Great to experience with someone close
Seeing it all at once allows us to see things on a deeper level
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HBO and “Game of Thrones”
17
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HBO & Netflix Business Models 18
Subscribers
Monthly Subscriber Rate
Share to TV Service Providers
30 Million 33.3 Million
$15 $8
50% 0
Gross Monthly Revenues $22.5 Million $26.6 Million
Source: The Atlantic Wire, “The Economics of Netflix's $100 Million New Show” February 1, 2013
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Conventional vs. Specialty Networks? 19
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The Role for Advertising?
20
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21Connected TV Variants
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21Connected TV Variants
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21Connected TV Variants
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Access the Internet on a TV Set*Anglophones,18+
22
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Fall 2010 Spring 2011 Fall 2011 Spring 2012 Fall 2012
21%
16%
11%8%7%
Source: Media Technology Report * Past month
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Cord Cutting
23
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Internet the “most essential medium” for Americans 24
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2002 2007 2012
46%
33%
20%
12+ 12-34 35+68%
33%
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Most to Gain
25
Production CompaniesDistributorsTalent including Directors, Writers and Actors
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Most to LoseTelevision Service ProvidersSpecialty Channels that focus on scripted drama and comedy
26
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The Second Screen 27
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Americans watching TV and using a device at the same time 28
Tablets• Skew older 25-34 and
55-64 are heaviest users
Favourite Activities• Seeking information
about the programs they’re watching
• Surfing and eMailing• Checking Sports
Scores
Smart Phones• Skew younger 18-24
year olds are the heaviest users
Favourite Activities• Social Media• eMail• Shopping
Source: Nielsen Cross Platform Report, Q2, 2012
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29NFL Mobile
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30Republic of Doyle “Ride Along”
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The future
31
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The Changing Experience 32
Appointment TV Binge TV
Single Screen Multi Screen
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Specialist and Generalist
33
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