Download - monsanto 11-08-07-5_v2
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ROBB FRALEY, PH.D.CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER
MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY
NOVEMBER 8, 2007
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Pipeline Leverages Power of Breeding and Biotech for Current Commercial Growth and New Platforms in Next Decade
OVERVIEW
PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCH
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BREEDING
BIOTECHNOLOGY
GGermplasmR
SEED SOLD TO FARMERS
R&D PHASE: PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IVPHASE IDISCOVERY LAUNCH
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MP
LAS
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BREEDING
BIOTECHNOLOGY
GGermplasmR
SEED SOLD TO FARMERS
R&D PHASE:
MONSANTO’S R&D PIPELINE
Pipeline Priorities Through 2012BREEDING
Continue to Drive Breeding Gains Across Crop Platforms
► Continue corn breeding momentum► Accelerate soybean breeding► Elevate cotton and vegetable
breeding
► Launch Roundup RReady2Yield as soybean pipeline platform
Unlock Opportunity in Yield and Stress Through BASF Collaboration
► Deliver industry’s first pure yield-and-stress traits
► Change trait-value opportunity with “product families”
Deliver Value in Established Trait Pipeline
BIOTECHNOLOGY
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CORN BREEDING
Early Yield Trial Results Continue to Reinforce Yield Advantage of DEKALB Seed in U.S.
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• In > 9,900 comparisons, Monsanto outyieldscompetitive best by 8.3 bu/ac
• In 110-day RM, Monsanto’s lead is 13 bu/ac, extended from 11.7 bu/ac in 2006
2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON: DEKALB
NEW:
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195 196
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190 191 192 191
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COMPETITORS
DEKALB
BU
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>9,900
Overall
4134.510APPROXIMATE BU/AC ADVANTAGE:
>3,700>4,000>1,400>500COMPARISONS:
115 RM110 RM105 RM100 RMRELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)►
Source: 2007 Monsanto and third party trials through October 24, 2007. Weighted average, calculated to 15% moisture. DEKALBproducts are compared with competitive products that contain similar crop protection traits.
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CORN BREEDING
Like National Brands, New ASI Hybrids Have Substantial Yield Advantage Over Competitive Offerings
NEW: 2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE CORN YIELD COMPARISON: ASI
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• Overall, 2007 yield comparisons showing 7.5 bu/ac advantage for ASI over competitive best
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10.5
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115 RM
11.56.513.5APPROXIMATE BU/AC ADVANTAGE:
1478712854LOCATIONS:
110 RM105 RM100 RM95RMRELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)►
Source: 2007 Monsanto trials through October 24, 2007.
BU
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(AP
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COMPETITORS
ASI
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210.3
197.0
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MONSANTO PioneerDEKALB, ASI and
Corn States Hybrids with YieldGard VT
Triple
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1,949 comparisons in 13 states: Monsanto’s seed, protected by YieldGard VT Triple,
outperformed the best competitive seed-and-trait package by >13 bu/ac on average
Seed & Trait: Head-to-Head
Again in 2007, Best Combination of Germplasm and Traits in Monsanto Brands Delivers Best Yield
CORN BREEDING
NEW: PRELIMINARY TOTAL SEED & TRAIT YIELD PERFORMANCE IN 2007
Competitive Hybrids with Herculex®
XTRA and Roundup Ready Corn 2
Performance in Key Corn Belt StatesNE IA IL
Comparisons: >70
210bu/ac
193bu/ac
>400Monsanto
Brands:214bu/ac
219bu/ac
Competitive Brand:
900
200bu/ac
204 bu/ac
13BU/AC
ADVANTAGE
®
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SOYBEAN BREEDING
Coming Off 2007 Share Gain, Initial Soybean Yield Performance Continues to Reinforce Breeding Leadership
NEW: 2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE SOYBEAN YIELD COMPARISON: ASGROW
GEOGRAPHY: U.S.OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE
• Yield data from 2007 indicates continued yield advantage for national brands versus best-in-class competitors
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60 COMPETITORS
ASGROW
Source: 2007 Monsanto and third party trials through October 30, 2007. Asgrowproducts are compared to competitive products. (1)
>30
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21.511.51APPROXIMATE BU/AC ADVANTAGE:
>1,000>3,400>3,500>400>300COMPARISONS:
4321ORELATIVE MATURITIES►
BU
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Yield and Stress Collaboration Resets Pipeline Structure and Approach to Value Considerations
R&D PIPELINE
DISCOVERYGene/Trait Identification
PHASE 1Proof of Concept
PHASE 2Early Development
PHASE 3Advanced
Development
PHASE 4Pre-Launch
Independent Discovery Program
Independent Discovery Program
Pest controlHerbicide toleranceDisease resistanceLipid enhancements (Increased oil, improved fatty-acid balance)Protein enhancements (Improved amino-acid balance)Carbohydrate enhancementsBioactive compounds
Soybean nematode-resistanceDicamba-tolerant cottonCotton lyguscontrolYieldGard rootworm III
Insect-protected RoundupRReady2YieldsoybeansVistive III soybeansDicamba-tolerant soybeansMavera II high-value soybeansBollgard IIIRoundup RReady2Yield canolaHybridization system for corn
High-oil soybeansOmega-3 soybeansVistive II soybeans
Roundup RReady2YieldsoybeansImproved-protein soybeansYieldGard VT PROExtrax Corn Processing System1
24 TO 48 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 36 MONTHS
JOINT-FUNDED DEVELOPMENT
Grain yieldEnvironmental stress tolerance
Yield increaseEnvironmental stress tolerance
2nd- Generation drought-tolerant corn2nd-Generation higher-yielding soybeansDrought-tolerant cottonNitrogen-utilization corn
Drought-tolerant cornHigher-yielding canolaHigher-yielding soybeansHigher-yielding cornY
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& S
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1. Extrax is a part of the Renessen pipeline. Renessen is a Monsanto/Cargill joint venture. Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen
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Strong Pipeline Value Reflects Commercial Opportunity in Latter-Stage Projects and Emerging Value in Yield and Stress
R&D PIPELINE
DISCOVERY PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4
FAMILY TRAITS►Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family
HIGHSOYBEANS:BROAD-ACRE YIELD
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Family
Nitrogen-Utilization Family
FAMILY TRAITS►
FAMILY TRAITS► MEGA
HIGH
Drought-Tolerant Family
FAMILY TRAITS► HIGHCORN:BROAD-ACRE YIELD
YIE
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ST
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AB
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High-oil soybeans
Dicamba-tolerant soybeansVistive III
Improved-protein soybeans
Roundup RReady2Yield canola
Bollgard III
Insect-protected RR2Ysoybeans
Omega-3 soybeans
YieldGard VT PROcorn
Roundup RReady2Yieldsoybeans
MEGA>$1BM
HIGH$300M-$500M
MID$150M-$300M
Corn Soybeans Cotton Canola
2020 VALUE RANGES:
LOW<$150M
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Drought, Nitrogen Use and Intrinsic Yield Boosts Come Together In Broad-Acre Yield Value Opportunity for Corn
R&D PIPELINE
Sources of value can overlap,
depending on functionality; more overlap
between drought and yield
With continuing discovery, additional, unassigned value remains for broad-acre yield category
VALUE ANALYSIS
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
DROUGHT-TOLERANT
FAMILY
HIGHER-YIELDING FAMILY
NITROGEN-UTILIZATION FAMILY
DROUGHT-TOLERANT FAMILY INTRODUCTION HORIZONNEW:
+1 +2 +3 +4 +5A
CR
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WINDOW FOR 2ND-GEN UPGRADE
Upgrade traits come on line before lead trait reaches targeted goal►
YEARS►
7-10 MACRE GOAL1:
U.S. drylandGEOGRAPHY:
Proof of commercial value
FOCUS:
LEAD DROUGHT
55 MACRE GOAL1:
Applicability across Corn Belt
GEOGRAPHY:
Expansion to broad-acre insurance
FOCUS:
UPGRADE 1
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R&D PipelineDrought-Tolerant Corn Family
HIT Project Phase 2
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1Improved yieldTargeting 8-10% yield improvement in water-stress environments
2Water substitutionVariable costs in pumped irrigation of >$100/ acre
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water limitationsVALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1: 55M
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500M
Drought Focuses First On Consistent Water Shortage Acres, Before Expanding to Broad-Acre Applicability
R&D PIPELINE
Initial trait commercial launch will focus on this segment, proving applicability in consistent water shortage
STABILITYWESTERN DRYLANDIRRIGATED
Value: Improved yields when moisture is less than optimal
Value: Improved yields annually
Value: Reducing the variable costs of irrigation
Non-irrigatedNon-irrigatedIrrigated17-19” precipitation14-18” precipitation14-18” precipitation55-65% of U.S. acres9-12% of U.S. acres8-12% of U.S. acres
Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University
High annual precipitation
Low annual precipitation
SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS MARKETS: U.S. EXAMPLE
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
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In Second Year of Off-Season Testing, Drought Lead Consistently Delivered Yield Advantages Under Water Stress
R&D PIPELINE
NEW: LATIN AMERICA: YIELD IMPROVEMENT OF LEAD EVENT UNDER DROUGHT STRESS
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2005U.S.
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DHybrid 1: 2004, 4 locs; 2005 5 locs; 2006, 1 loc (20 reps)
Percent yield difference vs. control7.3% 10.5% 10.9% 23.2% 9.0%
2006/07LAS
7.6%
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2006U.S.
• Yield benefit of up to 12 bu/ac in water-stress conditions
R&D PipelineDrought-Tolerant Corn Family
HIT Project Phase 2
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1Improved yieldTargeting 8-10% yield improvement in water-stress environments
2Water substitutionVariable costs in pumped irrigation of >$100/ acre
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water limitationsVALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1: 55M
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500M
Hybrid 2: 2004, not tested; 2005, 5 locs, 2006, 3 locs, LAS 2006 3 locs (20 reps)
In second-year South American trials, lead drought gene tested in variable environmental conditions across 3 locations
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
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Second-Generation Drought-Tolerant Corn Continues to Deliver Consistent Performance Under Drought Conditions
R&D PIPELINE
NEW: EARLY RESULTS ON SECOND-GENERATION DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
CONTROL WITH GENE
Lead gene increases photosynthesis and water relations, suggesting improved source performance under drought
R&D PipelineDrought-Tolerant Corn Family
HIT Project Phase 1
• Second-generation lead has been in field testing for last 3 years
• Consistent yield benefits observed under drought stress
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water limitationsPROJECT UPDATE:
Increased pollination success under flowering
stress observed
CONTROL WITH GENE
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R&D PipelineBroad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Corn Family
LEAD STATUS: Phase 2
2020 VALUE2: >$1BSOURCES OF VALUE:
1Improved yieldTargeting incremental yield to U.S. average of 150 bu/ac
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Broad-acre, higher-yielding corn aimed at boosting intrinsic yield potential of corn hybrids through insertion of key genesVALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1: 55M
R&D PIPELINE
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Corn Focused on Relative Yield Gains, Rather Than Acreage Expansion
BROAD-ACRE, HIGHER-YIELDING FAMILY INTRODUCTION HORIZONNEW:
+1 +2 +3 +4 +5
AC
RE
AG
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WINDOW FOR 2ND-GEN UPGRADE
Upgrade traits target same acres
with incremental yield►
YEARS►
55 MACRE GOAL:
U.S. broad-acreGEOGRAPHY:
Boost intrinsic yield per acre
FOCUS:
LEAD HIGHER-YIELD
55 MACRE GOAL:
U.S. broad-acreGEOGRAPHY:
Incremental yield over lead trait
FOCUS:
UPGRADE 1
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
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R&D PIPELINE
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Soybeans Combine Benefits of Intrinsic Yield Gains and Water-Use Efficiency
NEW: BROAD-ACRE, HIGHER-YIELDING FAMILY INTRODUCTION HORIZON
+1 +2 +3 +4 +5
AC
RE
AG
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WINDOW FOR 2ND-GEN UPGRADE
Upgrade traits target same acres
with incremental yield►
YEARS►
LEAD HIGHER-YIELD
FOCUS: Boost intrinsic yield per acre
GEOGRAPHY: U.S. broad-acreACRE GOAL: 45 M 45 MACRE GOAL:
U.S. broad-acreGEOGRAPHY:
Incremental yield over lead traitFOCUS:
UPGRADE 1
Discovery In Soybean Broad-Acre Yield
INTRINSIC YIELD
WATER-UTILIZATION
DISCOVERY: Discovery investigates intrinsic yield and water use efficiencyA trait offering benefits to all acres from water utilization is a broad-acre yield trait
$300-$500M2020 VALUE2:
Improved yieldTargeting incremental yield to U.S. average of 42 bu/ac
1
SOURCES OF VALUE:
Phase 2LEAD STATUS:
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Higher-yielding soybeans aimed at boosting intrinsic yield potential of soybeans through insertion of key genesVALUE:
45MLAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1:
Higher-Yielding Soybeans Family
R&D Pipeline
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
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First Round of Phase 2 Testing Continues to Validate Commercial-Track Events for Higher-Yielding Soybeans
R&D PIPELINE
NEW: LATIN AMERICA: HIGHER-YIELDING SOYBEAN PERFORMANCE
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IN
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OV
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10 Locations
Percent yield difference vs. control10.5% 7.8% 7.5%
EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
R&D PipelineHigher-Yielding Soybeans Family
LEAD STATUS: Phase 2
2020 VALUE2: $300-$500MSOURCES OF VALUE:
1Improved yieldTargeting incremental yield to U.S. average of 42 bu/ac
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Higher-yielding soybeans aimed at boosting intrinsic yield potential of soybeans through insertion of key genesVALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1: 45M
• Recently completed testing of additional 60 events in U.S. during the 2007 growing season
First of new Phase 2 commercial-track events demonstrates up to 10% increase in yield across 10 environments in Argentina
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R&D PipelineInsect-Protected Soybeans with Roundup RReady2Yield
STATUS: Phase 2
2020 COMMERCIAL VALUE2: $150-$300M
SOURCES OF VALUE:
1Insecticide substitutionBased on 2 current sprays costing almost $6/application
2 Improved yieldTargeting 7-11% increase
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Insect-protected soybeans use Bt technology widely adopted in corn and cotton to control insect pests especially economically important for South American farmersVALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY: BrazilLAUNCH-COUNTRY
ACRE OPPORTUNITY1: 50M
Insect-Protected Soybeans Are First-Ever Trait Developed Exclusively for Non-U.S. Opportunity
R&D PIPELINE
INITIAL PERFORMANCE OF INSECT-PROTECTED SOYBEANSNEW:
First Monsanto trait product developed exclusively for non-U.S. market – Brazil and Argentina – where farmers spray 2 times annually at a cost of $5.70/acre to control insect pests
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
CONTROL(NO INSECTICIDE)
WITH GENE(NO INSECTICIDE)
MONMOUTH, IL SCREENHOUSE – 2007
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R&D PipelineVistive III Soybeans
HIT Project Phase 2
2020 VALUE2: <$150MSOURCES OF VALUE:
1Oil replacement valueFit for frying applications and oil blends for baking, roughly 20M of oil for food uses
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Combining both breeding and biotechnology, Vistive III trait designed to lower linolenic and saturate content while boosting oleic content for an oil profile similar to olive oil with processing and economic advantagesVALUE:
LAUNCH-COUNTRY ACRES1: 20M
Vistive III Positions Significant Portion of U.S. Soybean Crop For Higher-Value Food-Grade Oil Opportunity
R&D PIPELINE
LINOLENIC18:3
LINOLEIC18:2
OLEIC18:1
SATS18:0 / 16:0
Applicable uses ideal for Vistive III
MAJOR MARKET SEGMENTS FOR U.S. SOYBEAN OILHYDROGENATED-BAKINGHYDROGENATED-
FRYINGNON-HYDROGENATED
Uses 25% of total crushing
(~10M acres)
Uses 25% of total crushing (~10M acres)
Uses 50% of total crushing
(~20M acres)
For various baking applications
For various frying
applicationsFor salad oils, household use
Source: Soyatech, USDA
Standard Soybean
Target:Vistive III
IMPROVING NUTRITIONAL PROFILE OF SOYBEAN OIL
1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops
2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020
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Roundup RReady2Yield and Molecular Breeding Rewrite Historic Soybean Yield Trends
SOYBEAN BREEDING
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2009-2010Roundup RReady2Yieldcontrolled commercial release + commercial launch
MAB-ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELDPLATFORM
2006First varieties from MAB
enter commercial portfolioVarieties show >3 bu/ac yield
advantage over commercial checks
Roundup RReady2Yield creates step change of 7-11% across portfolio
AV
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AG
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(B
U/A
CR
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SOYBEAN YIELD PROGRESSION: 2000-2012
MAB gains set new trajectory on top of Roundup RReady2Yield step change
All breeding going forward is built on Roundup RReady2Yieldfoundation and uses applied MAB technology
HISTORIC GAIN: 0.50 BU/AC
SOYBEAN YIELD AT HISTORIC RATE GAIN
EXPECTED TREND WITH APPLIED MOLECULAR BREEDING (MAB)
USDA AVERAGE YIELD/AC1
TREND LINE OF USDA YIELD
1. USDA NASS: http://www.nass.usda.gov/QuickStats/
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R&D PipelineDrought-Tolerant Cotton
LEAD STATUS: Phase 1
• Building a portfolio of genes that confer drought tolerance in cotton
• Initial field results show positive phenotypes for multiple genes in water-stressed conditions
PROJECT CONCEPT:
Drought-tolerant cotton designed to minimize risk in cotton farming by providing yield stability in environments experiencing sporadic or consistent water stress and by reducing water needs on irrigated acresPROJECT UPDATE:
U.S. Field Trials Continuing to Test Drought-Tolerance Proof of Concept in Cotton
R&D PIPELINE
EARLY RESULTS ON DROUGHT-TOLERANT COTTON TESTING IN U.S.NEW:
CONTROLWITH GENECONTROLWITH GENE
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GENE 1 GENE 2
NU
MB
ER
OF
FIE
LD T
RIA
LS►As Phase 1 project,
testing multiple genes for in-field proof of concept
Field testing will ►expand significantly as drought-tolerant cotton leads continue through pipeline evaluation and development
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Strong Pipeline Reflects Growing Innovation, Opportunity in Latter-Stage Projects and Emerging Value in Yield and Stress
R&D PIPELINE
PHASE2020
COMMERCIAL VALUE
COUNTRY OF
LAUNCH
ADDITIONAL GEOGRAPHIC OPPORTUNITY
SOURCES OF VALUE
Drought-Tolerant Corn Family
Insect Protected + Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans 2 MID Brazil ARGENTINA
• Improved yield• Improved insect protection
Dicamba-Tolerant Soybeans 2 LOW U.S. BRAZILARGENTINA • Durable weed control
Bollgard III Cotton 2 MID U.S.INDIA
AUSTRALIABRAZIL
• Improved insect protection
Vistive III Soybeans 2 LOW U.S. N/A • Food industry functionality
Roundup RReady2Yield Canola 2 LOW Canada U.S.EU 27 • Improved yield
2 LEAD HIGH U.S.BRAZIL
ARGENTINAEU 27
• Improved yield• Water replacement
Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family 1 LEAD HIGH U.S.BRAZIL
ARGENTINAEU 27
• Improved yield• Nitrogen replacement
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Corn Family 2 LEAD MEGA U.S.BRAZIL
ARGENTINAEU 27
• Improved yield
Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Soybean Family 2 LEAD HIGH U.S. BRAZIL
ARGENTINA • Improved yield
Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans 4 HIGH U.S. BRAZILARGENTINA • Improved yield
YieldGard VT PRO 4 HIGH U.S.BRAZIL
ARGENTINAEU 27
• Improved yield• Improved insect protection
Improved-Protein Soybeans 4 LOW U.S. N/A • Food industry functionality
High-Oil Soybeans 3 LOW U.S. BRAZILARGENTINA • Food industry functionality
Omega-3 Soybeans 3 HIGH U.S. N/A • Food industry functionality
YE
ILD
& S
TR
ES
S
<$150MLOW $150-$300MMID $300-$500MHIGH >$1BMEGA
COMMERCIAL VALUE RANGES AT 2020:
For further valuation information and valuation definitions, see “Valuing the R&D Pipeline” backgrounder, available at: http://www.monsanto.com/investors