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MTAT.03.231Business Process Management (BPM)
Lecture 4: Quantitative Process Analysis
Marlon Dumas
marlon.dumas ät ut . ee
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Business Process Analysis
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Process Analysis Techniques
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Fill in the blanks
If you had to choose between two services, you would typically choose the one that is:
• F…• B…• C…
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Process Performance Measures
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Let’s start with time
Mark McGuinness: Time Management for Creative People
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Cycle Time Analysis
• Cycle time: Difference between a job’s start and end time• Cycle time analysis: the task of calculating the average
cycle time for an entire process or process fragment– Assumes that the average activity times for all involved activities
are available (activity time = waiting time + processing time)
• In the simplest case a process consists of a sequence of activities on a sequential path– The average cycle time is the sum of the average activity times
• … but in general we must be able to account for – Alternative paths (XOR splits)– Parallel paths (AND splits)– Rework (cycles)
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Alternative Paths
CT = p1T1+p2T2+…+pnTn =
piTii1
n
Inspired by a slide by Manuel Laguna & John Marklund
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Alternative Paths – Example
• What is the average cycle time?
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• If two activities related to the same job are done in parallel the contribution to the cycle time for the job is the maximum of the two activity times.
Parallel Paths
CTparallel = Max{T1, T2,…, TM}
Inspired by a slide by Manuel Laguna & John Marklund
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Parallel Paths – Example
• What is the average cycle time?
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In 60% of the cases the credit is granted
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• Many processes include control or inspection points where if the job does not meet certain standard, it is sent back for rework
Rework
CT = T/(1-r)
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Rework – Example
• What is the average cycle time?
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Rework At Most Once – Example
• What is the average cycle time?
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Quick exercise
Calculate cycle time
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• Measured as the percentage of the total cycle time spent on value adding activities.
• CT = cycle time as defined before• Theoretical Cycle Time (TCT) is the cycle time if we
only counted value-adding activities and excluded any waiting time or handover time– Count only processing times
Cycle Time Efficiency
Cycle Time Efficiency = CT
TimeCyclelTheoretica
Inspired by a slide by Manuel Laguna & John Marklund
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Flow Analysis
• The previous technique for cycle time analysis is only one example of what can be done using flow analysis techniques
• Other applications:– Calculating cost-per-process-instance (cf. Textbook)– Calculating error rates at the process level
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Limitation 1: Not all Models are Structured
Start End
Check for completeness Perform checks Make decision
Deliver card
Receive review request
Request infoReceive info
Notify acceptance
Notify rejection Time out
complete? Decide
review request
Yes
No
reject
reviiew
accept
0.5
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.8
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Limitation 2: Fixed load + fixed resource capacity
• Cycle time analysis does not consider waiting times due to resource contention
• Queuing analysis and simulation address these limitations and have a broader applicability
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• WIP = (average) Work-In-Process– Number of cases that are running (started but not yet
completed)– E.g. # of active and unfilled orders in an order-to-cash
process
• Little’s Formula: WIP = ·CT = arrival rate (number of new cases per time unit)– CT = cycle time
Cycle Time & Work-In-Progress
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Exercise
A fast-food restaurant receives on average 1200 customers per day (between 10:00 and 22:00). During peak times (12:00-15:00 and 18:00-21:00), the restaurant receives around 900 customers in total, and 90 customers can be found in the restaurant (on average) at a given point in time. At non-peak times, the restaurant receives 300 customers in total, and 30 customers can be found in the restaurant (on average) at a given point in time.1. What is the average time that a customer spends in the
restaurant during peak times?
2. What is the average time that a customer spends in the restaurant during non-peak times?
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Exercise (cont.)
3. The restaurant plans to launch a marketing campaign to attract more customers. However, the restaurant’s capacity is limited and becomes too full during peak times. What can the restaurant do to address this issue without investing in extending its building?