NASDCTE Fall Conference 2005
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Other Ways to Win:
An Update
Ken Gray, [email protected]
Background PDK Gallup Poll Results
• 59% knows little or nothing about NCLP
• Among the knowledgeable 57% have unfavorable views.
• 67% support high school testing in grades 9 &10 &11
Annual PDK Gallup Poll, Sept 2005
Background PDK Gallup Poll Results
• 66% of adults with children in public school support a wide variety of course offerrings in the American high school.
• 80% believe that a fair assessment of schools requires tests in a variety of subjects.
• 62% of NCLB knowable believe it hurts special needs students.
Annual PDK Gallup Poll, Sept 2005
The One Way to Win Message Defined
1. Get a four year college degree98% agree, 72% plan on grad school
2. In order to insure economic successThree of top 4 reasons for going to college
3. In the professional ranksProfessional/manageral 65% Technical 6%
The One Way to Win MythThe Fate of a typical elementary school
class of 24 children
7 drop out5 go to work6 do not graduate from College3 Do not find college jobs3 win the One Way to Win game
9th to Graduation Dropout Rates
US & Pennsylvania9 to 10 dropout rates US= 11% PA = 7%
9th-graduation dropout rates in 1990 US=29% PA=21%
9th-graduation dropout rates in 2000 US= 33% PA=25%
Education Pipeline in the U.S: 1970-2000. National Board Publications.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
9th-10th/00
PAUSA
CTE and AT-Risk Youth
A combination of 60% academic courses and 40% CTE is the most effective drop-out prevention program in the American high school.
At-risk/special needs students in CTE are more likely to:Graduate from high school. Be employed. Be employed in the trades.Be in college.
Employment of University Graduates2000-2012
Supply Demand Employed
University Grads 1,185,000 730,400 62%
Percent of Occupations Requiring
Different Levels of Education
Graduate Ed.8%
Baccalaureate12%
Technical10%
OJT27%
No training43%
Graduate Ed.
Baccalaureate
Technical
OJT
No training
Financial Aide
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04
Year
%
Grants
Loans
Roots of One Way to Win Myth
• Class in America. (David Brooks, Bobos’s in Paradise)
• Economic Uncertainty/ Globalization– (no one knows what to do)
• Math Scam• Increase college graduates
Fundamental Fears & Misconceptions
• A college degree is today what a high school diploma was before.
There will be so many with a univesity degree that they wil take all the good jobs.
Fundamental Fears & Misconceptions
• College grads earn more than others thus is most be because they have a college degree.– Decline of blue collar wages. – Wage gap…payoff is for a very few– 83% of associate degree holders have same
annual earnings a 4-yr grad.– Education explain less 10% of earnings.
(Ulreich,NYT, 1/17/05)
Finding Other Ways to Win.
The High Skills/High Wage Strategy1. Understand three labor market realities.
2. Investigate technician level occupations within key economic sectors
1. The High Skills/High Wage Workplace
Engineers 2%Technicians 14%Operators 84%
Semi-conductor Manufacturing
Ratio: 1 to 2 to 7
2. Labor Market Projections Can be Misleading
• Opportunity is greatest in occupations that demand exceed supply.
• Fast or slow growing growing occupations may or may not mean opportunity.
Shortages of Technicians
• There will be 100,000 more jobs for computer technicians than computer engineers.
• Almost half of IT, craft, and precision manufacturing jobs were filled by non-native born workers in the 1990’s.
• While construction trades employment is predicted to grow only by 13% retirement of older workers results in a net demand of over two million jobs
3. Occupational Skill not Degrees Provide Labor Market Advantage
High Skill/ High Wage
Low Skill/Low Wage
Other Ways to Win
Work Ethic & Work Ethics
Academic Skills
Occupational Skills
Creating Other Ways to WinCareer Guidance
By the tenth grade all students will have participated in activities designed to help them identify several career options.
In the eleventh and twelfth grades all students will participate in activities that allow them to verify these choices, using the results to develop postsecondary plans.
Career Verification Activities Preferred by Teens
Job Shadowing 71% Vocational Education
56%
Internships 64% Unpaid employment
51%
Paid employment
61% Guest speakers 36%
Career focused academic class
60% Career interest inventories
17%
Creating Other Ways to Win
• Require All Student to Complete a High School Program of Study.– Shopping mall high school curriculum– Dual enrollment/middle college– CTE/Career Clusters/Tech Prep
Creating Other Ways to Win
• Challenge the Taylorist High School Mind Set
In High School
NCLB Requires Alternatives
CTE
Is to Some Teens
What
AP & HonorsIs To others.