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National Instituteof Economic and Social Research
EU migration & the UK labour market
Jonathan Portes December 2015www.niesr.ac.ukTwitter: @jdporteswww.niesr.ac.uk
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2004: Labour market access for the A8
Myth that decision was based on Dustmann (2003) “forecast”. 3 key drivers:
• Political/foreign policy
• Administrative/practical
• Economic/labour market
But undeniable that flows were much larger than anticipated by government.
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Leading in turn to major change in composition of UK workforce and population
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But UK still only roughly average in EU terms
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However..
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What do we know about labour market impacts?
• Dustmann, Frattini and Preston (LPC, 2007)
• Portes and Lemos (2006, 2008)
• Manning, Manacorda and Wadsworth (2006)
• Nickell and Salahadeen (2008)
• Reed and Latorre (2008)
• MAC (2012)
• Lucchino, Portes and Rosazza-Bondibene (2012)
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So where do we stand?
Considerable consensus among labour market economists (Wadsworth, 2010, 2014, 2015; CREAM, 2014)
• Little or no impact on unemployment/employment: no study has found statistically significant negative impact of EU migration.
• Probably some relatively small negative impact on wages at the bottom of the distribution
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Caveats
• No/small average impact does not preclude significant offsetting positive and negative impacts
• No impact on wages/employment does not exclude significant impacts on labour market institutions, structures and practices (Heather’s talk to follow)
• Relatively little research using post-2010 data especially on wages
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New (preliminary) analysis using NiNos & Parliamentary constituencies
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New (preliminary) analysis: low pay
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National Instituteof Economic and Social Research
EU migration & the UK labour market
Jonathan Portes December 2015www.niesr.ac.ukTwitter: @jdporteswww.niesr.ac.uk