National Report DFO EC
CONCEPTS
Fraser Davidson1, Hal Ritchie2 , Greg Smith2 ,
Youyu Lu1, Jean-Francois Lemieux2, Pierre
Pellerin2, Fred Dupont2, Francois Roy2
1 Fisheries and Oceans Canada, CANADA: NAFC + BIO
2 Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Dorval + Dartmouth
• Enhance value of ocean observations
• Reconstruct current and past ocean states
• Predict future ocean, atmosphere and ice
conditions
Canada requires ice-ocean forecasts and information services for:
• Improvements to regional/global weather forecasts days/seasons are expected.
• Canadian Ice Service & Canadian Coast
Guard Ice Operations
• Fisheries and aquaculture management
• Interpreting biological observations
• Regional climate change impacts
• Risk assessments for extreme events
• Emergency response: Search and Rescue, dispersion of pollutants
• Offshore Oil and Gas Industry. Fog prediction, Pack Ice and Iceberg Management, Deep Water Riser Vibration Prediction, Site planning, Deep well blow outs
• Forecasting arrival of hazardous ice that
will shut operation down
• Local ice drift speed and direction for ice
management
NEED FOR FORECASTS
Page 4 – November-14-12
Inter-Departmental
Collaboration MOU
Partnership
Data Assimiliation Codes
Mecator Ocean Modelling Algorithms
Data Exchange Agreements
CONCEPTS Budget linked to Annual workplan and report
Canadian Operational Network
of Coupled Environmental PredicTion Systems
CONCEPTS
NEMO Ice-ocean modelling for Coupled Systems
CONCEPTS GLOBAL • Global 1/4° resolution (9-24km)
– Medium range forecasting
• Global 1° resolution – Monthly-to-seasonal forecasting
CONCEPTS REGIONAL • N. Atlantic and Arctic 1/12° (3-8km)
– Short-to-medium regional forecasting • Great lakes and Gulf of St. Lawrence (2
and 5km resp.) – Short term coupled forecasting
1/4° Global 1° Global
1/12° N. Atlantic +
Arctic
GDPS Re-Forecast (CGRF) “recast”
Atmospheric Forcing Product derived from
running operational forecasts with operational
analysis over 2002-2010
Based on the global (33km) operational
deterministic model (GEM)
Restarted 0Z for 30h from operational analysis
Corrected from radiation biases using GEWEX
Provides more detail then ERA interim
Vorticity maps Northern H 2002-01-01
Vorticity (s-1)
ERA Interim 0.25 o
Vorticity maps Northern H 2002-01-01
Vorticity (s-1)
GDPS 33 KM
Evaluation against IMS analyses
• IMS Analyses:
– Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping
System (NOAA-NIC)
– Daily Northern Hemisphere ice analyses on 4km
grid (ice/water)
– Assimilates : AVHRR, GOES, SSM/I
• Evaluation Methodology:
– Interpolate model forecasts to IMS grid
– Calculate contingency table values using 0.4 ice
concentration cutoff
– Bin results on 1° lat-lon grid
– Compare to persistence
IMS Ice IMS No ice
Forecast
Ice
Hit ice False
Alarm
Forecast
No ice
Miss Hit water
10day ice forecast
Misses
Persistence of ice analysis Model Forecast
Ice? YIMS NIMS
YFcst Hit ice False
Alarm
NFcst Miss Hit
water
• 2011-02-05
10 day ice forecast
Misses
False
Alarms
Persistence of ice analysis Model Forecast
Ice? YIMS NIMS
YFcst Hit ice False
Alarm
NFcst Miss Hit
water
• Proportion Correct Ice
– PCI= Hits ice / (Hits + Misses)
– Skillful forecasts along ice edge
– Some errors near coast
• Proportion Correct Water
– PCW= Hits water / (Hits water +
False Alarms)
– Small errors along ice edge
– Correct lead formation near coast
ΔPCI ( Fcst – Pers)
ΔPCW ( Fcst – Pers)
Accumulated statistics for 5 day lead Jan-Dec, 2011 (52 forecasts)
Ice? YIMS NIMS
YFcst Hit ice False
Alarm
NFcst Miss Hit
water
CONCEPTS GLOBAL Plans
• Continue routine analysis/forecast production and
evaluate
– Un-coupled System
– Coupled System
– Add CLASS1 and CLASS4 output for GODAE inter-comp.
• Un-coupled to be transferred to operations early 2013
• Improve blending of SAM2 and 3DVAR ice analysis
system
• Evaluate use of Cryosat2 altimetry data
Satellite Altimetry
Satellite tracks
Simulated Dec 5 2011
Envisat
______
1 satellites
3 tracks daily across
Beaufort Sea
Further north, track
frequency increases
Reasonable good
coverage from
altimeters
Satellite tracks
for Dec 5 2011
Envisat
Cryosat
2 satellites
6 tracks daily across
Beaufort Sea
Further north, track
frequency increases
Reasonable good
coverage from
altimeters
Without CRYOSAT
Present Satellite
tracks for one day
over Canadian
Archipelago
Satellite Altimetry
Satellite tracks
for Dec 5 2011
_______
Cryosat
1 satellite
3 tracks daily across
Beaufort Shelf
Further north, track
frequency increases
AltiKa Expected
In a few months will
provide good
coverage again
across artic
CONCEPTS CREG DOMAIN
• Build on CONCEPTS / METAREA
developments
• Develop coupled forecasting system
– N. America/Arctic
• Couple NEMO to GEM regional
(10km)
• 5km LAM over METAREAS 17&18
with 5km Atm 4DVAR/EnKF
• Produce
– 48hr weather and marine forecasts
– 10 day ocean forecasts (non coupled)
1/12°
GEM RDPS
10km
CREG Domain presentation: 1580x1817x50
512 procs + 271 land procs
Extracted from ORCA12
(Mercator) with the north fold
stitched back. Regional
CONCEPTS domain (CREG).
Replaces C-NOOFS system.
Hindcast: 4 day run in 23 minutes
(1 year in 1.5 day).
Resolution maximum near the
artificial pole 1.8 km
Covers part of North Atlantic
(27N), the whole Arctic Ocean.
north fold on
the ORCA
family grid
First Rossby radius of deformation from
Mercator ORCA12 (2003-01)
1st R-Radius (km) Log10(R-Radius / dx)
2km
20km
CREG12 hindcast 01 ORCA12
16-OCT-2003
Comparison of surface velocity depicting
the lack of KE
CREG12 hindcast 02 ORCA12
16-MAR-2003
Comparison of surface velocity depicting
the lack of KE
2 CONCEPTS regional projects
• BREA Project: Enhancement of METAREA SYSTEM
– Improve Data Assimilation/Ocean Model
– Add wave-ice interaction for floe size prediction in MIZ
– Add new rheology and ice physics within CICE ice model
– Implement validation protocol and dissiminate data
• Industry funded Zoom Project: April 2013 – April 2016
– High Res 1/36o (2 km) zoom ocean-Ice operational forecasts
– 50/50 split R&D / Op Implementation
– Post project operations of forecast systems ensured by EC
BREA Project Timeline
Hindcast 1
Hindcast 2
Hindcast 3
Fcst 1
Fcst 2
Fcst 3
March 2012
March 2013
March 2014
March 2015
Validation H Validation H Validation H
Validation F Validation F Valid. F
Model Improvements
Asssimilation Implementation 025 12th
New Ice Rheology
Land fast ice
Waves and Ice for Marginal Ice Zone
Implementation of test web site Project web site
Coastal Environmental Emergency Response System
• ESRF Project $1.41M
• High-resolution (2km) nested ice-ocean
model within METAREA/BREA system
• Delivery to CMC operations
• Aim: Produce 3D currents required for oil
spill drift and environmental emergencies
• Apr 2013 – Mar 2016
• Focus on delivering operational system
• May provide 1/36o CREG op system in
2015
BREA: Waves &Ice
Floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone is mostly controlled by
wave…by fragmenting ice floes through flexural failure
Floe Size Forecasts being added to METAREA for Marginal Ice zones
Coupling Wave and Ice model
• Wave energy
attenuates
exponentially when
propagating in the
ice pack and the
attenuation is
spectrally slective.
In Situ / Sat. Data for Validation & Assimilation
Arctic Net
CTD Data CLIVAR
Data
ICES CTD
transects
Envisat
Track Data
Arcic Net
CTD Data
“Northern Watch” camp
at Gascoyne Inlet
ADCP provides:
- ice presence and drift speed
- currents
- zooplankton biomass index
CTD provides 40 m Temperature and Salinity
Shore station provides
- barometric pressure
Data in numerical form are available in real time at: ftp://starfish.mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pub/ocean/PittmanM/BSRT/2012-
2013/
Salinity at 40m Sept 4-7 corresponds to day of ice
freezeup (mid-late october) r2 = 0.85
Early summer temperature at 40m corresponds to
summer biomassindex r2 = 0.92
Barrow Straight Observations
Page 33 – November-14-12
Recreating Drifter track data
23 Drifter tracks [surface + 10m]
MMB5410 201012_20110222.avi
Validation opportunity for high resolution forecast system
Difference Air temp.
Coupled - Uncoupled
The Coupled Gulf of St. Lawrence System
Coupled Gulf of St.Lawrence System
Impacts on low level clouds (air-ocean exchanges)
Uncoupled Fully coupled a) b)
c)
Water
Ice
Clouds
AVHRR
Nova-
Sco
tia
New-Brunswick
P-E. I.
Cape-Breton
M. I.
Clouds
over
Ice
Ice
Water Ice
Ice
The Coupled Gulf of St. Lawrence System
Example of Web Site for Output
Develops and tests:
• science-based technologies and strategies
to guide response to marine hazards as they
occur (1hr ->3 months)
• new tools to anticipate, plan and adapt to
changing patterns of marine emergencies
and extremes of the future (seasons to a
century) while optimizing the socioeconomic
benefits of marine related activities.
• Train highly qualified personnel with multiple
skills in the broad range of disciplines, and
settings, related to marine environment risk
and response and policy strategies.
Academia
Government
Private Sector
Observation
Prediction Response
MEOPAR in a Nutshell
• Network of Centres of Excellence (NCE) funded recently by the Canadian Government
• $25M from the NCE over five years
• 80 research scientists from 15 post secondary institutions in Canada,
• 15 private partners
• 20 community partners
• Research program linked/complimentary to government partner activities (CONCEPTS and others within DFO and EC)
• Address needs of partners and stakeholders • Build on existing capability and prior projects
Theme 1 Hours - Seasons
Theme 2 Seasons - Decades
1.2 Building a Network of Fixed
Coastal Observing / Forecast
Systems 1.1 A Relocatable Coupled
Atmosphere-Ocean Prediction
System
2.1 Climate Change and Extreme
Events in the Marine
Environment
2.2 Biogeochemical Projections
Under a Changing Climate
DND
MyOcean
European
Core Service
EN
D -
US
ER
S
DFO
EC
Research
&
Development Im
ple
men
tati
on
Mercator
Partners
Operations
CONCEPTS STATUS REVIEW
CREG 12 CONCEPTS
GLOBAL
CONCEPTS
GLOBAL
GSL Great Lakes GLOBAL CPL
CREG 12
CREG 12
CPL Great Lakes
GLOBAL CPL CREG 12
Re-analysis
Project 4: Gulf St-Lawrence
Atm.-Ocean-Ice Short term High-Resolution
Project 3: Great-Lakes
Atm.-Lakes-Ice Short term High-Resolution
Project 2: Arctic-North-Atlantic CREG DOMAIN
Page 42 – November-14-12
PRNL RFP
“Joint Industry Project for Enhanced
Iceberg and Sea Ice Drift Forecasting”
• …determine if improvements in existing iceberg and sea
ice forecasting models can have a real impact on
operational decision-making and resource planning in
terms of reliability and cost effectiveness.