1 NUOPCNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
Status ReviewFor
NUOPC Executive Steering Group
National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC
Fred Toepfer & Dave McCarren
Kim Curry6 May 2010
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Purpose of Briefing
• Provide NUOPC Status update to Executive Steering Group
• Decision Requested – – Review and approve Earth System
Prediction Capability (ESPC) Charter
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AGENDA
• NUOPC Update– IOC-1 Update
– Discuss NUOPC Charter/MOA update– Post-Processing Discussion
– Committee Reports
• Action Item Review• ESPC Update and Charter Approval - Curry• Principals Discussion
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NUOPC Update Summary
• Revised Committees underway• ESMF management agreement• ESMF funding in place• COPC – NUOPC coordination agreement • Regular liaison telecons• Briefings to OP center directors• Meeting with NSF program managers• Annual Status Review Workshop in
preparation
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NUOPCGoals and Objectives - 1
• Establish a National unified operational atmospheric prediction capability for the United States– Joint operational ensemble of Navy and NOAA
operational weather prediction systems (GFS and NOGAPS)
– Operational Capability built upon adding NOGAPS to North American Ensemble Forecast System(NAEFS)
– Agency post-processing of ensembles to meet agency product requirements (common post-processing if appropriate)
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NUOPCGoals and Objectives - 2
• Unified Technology – Common Model Architecture built upon ESMF
– Technology component sharing
• Accelerated forecast performance improvement– More Efficient National R&D Investment
– Clearly articulated operational requirements – National Research Agenda for global weather prediction
– Community development and involvement
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NUOPC Schedule FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Prelim Phase I
Implementation Phase II
FOCBeta Test Phase III
MANAGEMENT
SW INTEROPERABILITY INIT.STANDARDS
OPERATIONS
OUTREACH
ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOXEXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAININGCOMM, IA, HPC
CONOPS, BUDGET
DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS
FOC
IOC-2IOC-1
TRANSITION CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF)VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM
RESEARCH AGENDA
DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE
FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM
TT PM, TEMPS FULL STAFF AND AGENCY PANELS
ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS
AMS CONFERENCES
MODEL RESOLUTION UPGRADE
0.5 0.25 0.1
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Near Term (FY10-11) Actions - 1
• Initial Operational Capability(IOC) on track for Dec 2010 Implementation
– Interagency agreement to define participation in joint ensemble
– Metrics (TTP Committee)– Center IOC requirements (Agency
Liaisons, COPC)
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Interagency MOA for Joint Ensemble Operations
• Use current Data Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange (DAPE) MOA– Recommend Annex that deals with joint multi-model
ensemble operations
– Draft Annex prepared; reviewing with COPC
– Addresses only operations portion of managing a multi-model ensemble
– Suggest separate annex for joint or common post-processing
• No rewrite of NUOPC charter recommended at this time
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Post Processing
• “Post processing” ill defined– Technical issues: QC of raw model outputs,
Bias correction, Sophisticated calibration
– Development of standard probability distributions of model parameters, joint probability products, other user products
– Operations Concept: Who, What, When, Where, and How
• Will coordinate and staff a position and incorporate it into a draft annex for ESG approval
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IOC-1 Update
• IOC-1 Rollout - discussed with OFCM
• IOC-1 Implementation
– Plan in place for December 2010
– EMC and FNMOC working together
– Briefed at COPC
• Communications intensive
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April 2010 January 2011
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
JulFNMOC delivers
ensembles inGRIB2 with74 variables
AprFNMOC delivers
GRIB2 sampleProducts forevaluation
Jul - AugFNMOC / NWS
Optimize productdelivery (potential)
MayFNMOC delivers
"packed" ensembleproducts
with 20 members,out to 384 hours
Apr - MayNWS evaluatesGRIB2 products
May - JulNWS evaluates
extended members
Jul - AugNWS conducts
final evaluation,charters model
upgrade,issues notices
Aug - SepModel runs in
off-line parallel,RFC prepared
and submitted
Sep - NovTransition to
real-time parallel,IT testing,
NCEP Centerevaluation
DecDirectorBriefing
DecNAEFS w/FNMOC
EnsemblesImplemented
North American Ensemble Forecast SystemFNMOC Ensemble Integration TimelineApril 15, 2010
Risk: Data transfer timeliness maintained after increasing members, variables, and hoursMitigation: COPC Network upgrade (complete),
product “packing” transition to GRIB2 (May),FNMOC dissemination hardware upgrade (date TBD)
Risk: Complete delivery of all GRIB2 fieldsMitigation: NCEP-proposed packing scheme allows model to run with some missing data
Risk: Data transfer reliabilityMitigation: FNMOC dissemination hardware upgrade (date TBD)
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Milestones Aug08 Oct08 Dec08 Feb09 Apr09 Jun09 Aug09 Oct09 Dec09 Feb10 Apr10 Jun10 Aug10 Oct10 Dec10
Resolving Communications and Processing Issues
12-Month Study on the Effect of Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS Results Positive
IOC-1
ESG Agreed to Proceed
COPC Approved Adding NOGAPS to NAEFS
NOGAPS Scheduled to be Added to NAEFS
NUOPC Global Managed Ensemble (IOC-1)(NAEFS)
OriginalRevised
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Planned Upgrades to NAEFS Baseline
2010 2011 2012 2013
NCEP T126 (100km) to T190(78km)/L28 (Feb)
8-th order diff (Feb)Bias Correction
20 members
T190(78km) to T270(50km)/L42 Bias Correction
20 members
T270(50 km)/L45Bias Correction
20 membersCoupled ocean
T270(50km)/L45Bias Correction
20 members
FNMOC T119 (100km) 16 to 20 members (3Q)Bias CorrectionTC tracker
252 h to 384 h
T119 (100km) to T159(75km)/L42
20 membersBias Correction
TC tracker384 h
T159/L42 to T239(50km)/L50
20 membersBias Correction
TC tracker384 h to 720 h
T239(50km)/L5020 members
Bias CorrectionTC tracker
720 hCoupled ocean
CMC 100km to 66km(4Q) L58-80
20 membersDynamics upgrade
Add satellite data (4Q)
53km(L45) 20 members
Upgraded dynamics and satellite data
53km(L45) 20 members
Upgraded dynamics and satellite data
53km(L45) 20 members
Upgraded dynamics and satellite data
Coupled ocean2014- 44km(L45)
Expected/Realized Performance Impact
TBD/TBD TBD/TBDResolution doubled
TBD/TBD TBD/TBD
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Global Model Comparison
GFSDeterministic
NOGAPSDeterministic
ECMWFDeterministic
ECMWF EPSEnsemble
Horizontal Grid
T382/35 kmT574/27 kmin May 2010
T239/50 kmT319/37 km
in 2010
T1279/16 kmcompleted Jan 2010
T639/32 kmcompleted Jan 2010
Vertical Sigma Levels
64 42 91 62
Top Level 0.27 hPa 0.04 hPa 0.01 hPa 5 hPa
Data Assimilation
3D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR
Ocean Surface 7 day SST analysis and sea ice
SST and ice cover percentage
Coupled atmosphere-ocean-
wave model
Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model
Land Surface Soil temp and water Single layer/bucket model
4 layers in soil to 1.9 m
4 layers in soil to
1.9 m
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IOC-1 Benefits
• 60 member multi-model ensemble based on three state-of-the-science prediction systems
– Incorporates strengths of three systems
– Demonstrated increased skill over a single ensemble system
– Better representation of range and likelihood of events, better capability to capture likelihood of severe or rare events
– Allows more coordinated improvement of prediction system – more eyes on problem
– Provides estimate of probability or uncertainty for decision support and risk management
– Provides more realistic initial and boundary conditions for less deterministic systems such as ocean, wave, hydrology and mesocale ensembles
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Near-Term (FY10-11) Actions - 2
• Stand-up Revised Technology Transfer Committee
• National Research and Development (R&D) Agenda for forecast ensemble operations
– Collecting Tri-Agency operational needs (TTP)
– R&D Workshop on Research –» Prioritize Requirements and Needs
» Joint with NUOPC Annual Program Review
• Common Suite of Metrics for Joint ensemble
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TTP Committee
• Chairman: Scott Sandgathe
– Activity Update– Discuss:– FY10 Objectives– R&D Agenda Draft– Common Metrics
Kim Curry N84
John Eylander AFWA 16 WS/SSP
Jack Floyd AFWA/A5R
John Ward NOAA/EMC
Jian-Wen Bao NOAA/ESRL
Zoltan Toth NOAA/ESRL
Steve Payne CNMOC
Mike Clancy FNMOC
Simon Chang NRL MRY
Ruth Preller NRL SSC
Ron Ferek ONR
James Rigney NAVO
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TTP COMMITTEE
• Agree to prioritized R&D requirements– Agencies have provided list of operational needs– Draft cross-table of needs complete– Preparing for operators/scientists meeting August to create
draft list of R&D requirements– Have met with NSF to discuss way forward
• Agree to common suite of metrics for measuring ensemble performance– Current agency ensemble metrics reviewed– Proposed common skill metrics in agency channels for
review and approval– Will address system and program metrics next
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NUOPC Workshop Goals
• Develop prioritized R&D agenda– Based on common operational needs– Would release to OAR, ONR, NSF, etc.
• Review of NUOPC program– Preparation for operational multi-model ensemble– Implementation of common metrics– Implementation of common model architecture
• Coordination of Tri-Agency development efforts– Planned prediction system upgrades (data assimilation,
global, ensemble, post processing, mesoscale, other)– Tri-Agency development efforts underway– Ensemble products
• Review of outside ensemble research efforts– TIGGE, THORPEX, etc.
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Common Metrics
•Technical metrics considerations–Need a controlled comparison (i.e. model vs model)
–Must consider data, data QC, data assimilation, model resolution(H/L), ensemble perturbation creation, and post processing
–Common verification must agree on:»Common climatology (i.e., for anom. corr., skill scores)
»Common analysis and/or common set of observations
»Parameters of interest
»Common test cases
•System metrics – NAEFS performance measures
•Program metrics – NUOPC performance measures
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Near Term (FY10-110 Actions - 3
• Common Model Architecture (CMA) development underway– Content Standards Committee (CSC)
integrated into ESMF Management structure to design common implementation
– Single Column Model initiative (CMA)– Development plan for the NUOPC Layer
within ESMF being worked with operational centers
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NUOPC Layer Development
• 3 Year Development Planned
• Statements of Work prepared for ESMF Development for both NOAA and Navy
• First year funding in place
• Technical Requirements from Content Standards Committee
• Single column model will be a prototype for NUOPC layer
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CMA/CSC Committee• CMA: (Co-chairs)
– Bill Lapenta (NOAA/EMC)
– David McCarren (NUOPC)
• CSC:
– Tim Campbell (NRL/SSC)
– Activity Update– Discuss:– CSC Prioritization– CMA Progress
Eric Wise CSC AFWA/A6C
Mark Iredell CMA/CSC NOAA/EMC
Tom Henderson CMA/CSC NOAA/ESRL
V. Balaji CMA/CSC NOAA/GFDL
Scott Sandgathe CSC NUOPC
Tim Whitcomb CSC NRL MRY
Roger Stocker CSC FNMOC
Chris DeHaan CSC NAVO
Max Suarez CMA/CSC NASA/GSFC/GMAO
Steve Payne CMA CNMOC
Thomas Black CMA NOAA/EMC
Jim Doyle CMA NRL MRY
Melinda Peng CMA NRL MRY
Greg Jacobs CMA NRL SSC
Frank Giraldo CMA Navy NPS
Andrea Mask CMA NAVO
Mark Swenson CMA FNMOC
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CMA COMMITTEE
• Establish Content Standards Committee as formal ESMF committee– CSC-ESMF agreement in place
– CSC proceeding with prioritization of interoperability objectives from CMA Interim Committee Report
– CSC will begin tracking implementation of NUOPC standards
• CMA address common physical architecture– Agreement to proceed on single column model
• GFS-NEMS, GEOS-5, NOGAPS, COAMPS
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NUOPC FY '10 Spend PlanBy Agency
Total NOAA Navy AFNUOPC Architecture and InfrastructureESMF & NUOPC Layer 780,000 390,000 390,000
Implement ESMF 550,000 250,000 300,000
Joint Development and OperationsNAEFS IOC 160,000 160,000
Incorporate Research Advances into OperationsDevelop R&D Strategy 270,000 100,000 170,000
Committee Costs 218,000 58,000 160,000
Contractors 800,000 250,000 200,000 350,000Management & Overhead 458,000 210,000 248,000
Spend Totals 3,236,000 1,418,000 1,468,000 350,000
FY10 Spend Plan
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Action Item Review
• NUOPC/COPC interaction
• Joint Ensemble Metrics
• IOC-1 Implementation/Rollout
• Interagency Operations Agreement
• Navy-AF Training CONOPS
• Budget Update to AF
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ESPC Update and Charter
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ESPC/NUOPC Intersection• NUOPC
– Focused on operational global atmosphere at weather time scales
– Developing initial Tri-Agency management and collaboration including a common research agenda and a common model architecture
– Evolution of existing agency Ensemble Systems
• ESPC– Focused on the next generation systems
– Focused on integrated earth system prediction
– Primarily a revolutionary research and development effort
– Includes decadal climate prediction
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ESPC/NUOPC Intersection
• Both are a Tri-Agency collaboration on accelerating operational prediction capability
• Both rely on a common software/systems architecture and common research agenda
• NUOPC paves the way in collaboration for ESPC
• ESPC will benefit from NUOPC common software/system standards
• An ESPC goal will be to provide the next generation system for NUOPC
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ESPC Charter
• Decision Requested: Approve ESPC Charter
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Backups
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Deterministic Global Model Comparison
GFS CMC GEM NOGAPS ECMWF
Hydrostatic/Nonhydrostatic
Hydrostatic Hydrostatic Hydrostatic Hydrostatic
Spectral Coeff/Grid Spectral Coeff Grid Spectral Coeff Spectral Coeff
Vertical Levels 64 sigma 58 Eta 42 sigma 91 sigma
Top Level 0.27 hPa 10 hPa 0.04 hPa 0.01 hPa
Horizontal Grid T382/35kmT574 (27km) (May 2010)
Global uniform lat-lon, 0.3 deg lat; 0.45 deg lon; 33km at 49 deg lat
T239/50kmIn FY10: T319/37km
T1279/16km(Completed Jan
2010)
Data Assimilation 3D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR 4D-VAR
Ocean Surface 7 day SST analysis sea ice
SST and Ice cover percentage from MVOI
Coupled atmos-ocean, wave model
Land Surface Soil temp, water Single layer/bucket model 4 layers in soil to 1.9m
Operational Runs 4 cycles/day (00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z)
2 cycles/day (00Z, 12Z)
4 cycles/day (00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z)
4 cycles/day(00Z,06Z,12Z,18Z)
Forecast length 384 h 144h(12Z)/240h (00Z) /360h (Sun)
180 h 240 h
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Deterministic Global Model ComparisonGFS CMC GEM NOGAPS ECMWF
Horizontal Diffusion Scale selective, 2d- order All levels temperature
Gravity Wave Drag Alpert et al. Orographic gravity wave drag and
orographic blocks in lower levels
Palmer, Shutts and Swinbank
Radiation Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM)
Solar and infrared radiation interacts with
water vapor
Long-wave and short-wave (Harshvardham) computed
every 2h
Solar and infrared radiation interacts with
water vapor
Initialization Not necessary-spectral Described below Machenhauer initialization
Computational Performance 12 min/day 9 min/day
Time Scheme Leapfrog for nonlinear advection terms; semi-implicit for gravity waves and zonal
advection of vorticity and moisture
Implicit, 2 time-level, semi-Lagrangian
Central time differencing with Robert semi-implicit corrections
semi-Lagrangian
Time Step 450 s 900 s 150-180 s
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Agency Operational Global Model Planned Upgrades - “Deterministic” Model
2010 2011 2012 2013
NCEP T382 (35km) to T574 (27km)Radiation upgradeGravity wave drag; Mtn blockingHigher resolution Hurricane relocation
TBD TBD TBD
FNMOC T239(50km) to T319(37km)/L42
TBD TBD TBD
CMC 0.3 deg lat X 0.45 deg lon TBD TBD TBD
Expected/Realized Performance
Impact
TBD TBD TBD TBD
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Agency Data Assimilation Plans
2010 2011 2012 2013
NCEP Global Statistical interpolation (3D VAR)
Hybrid 4DVAR/ENKF
FNMOC 4D VAR; Q1 - Banded Ensemble Transform Initialization
CMC 4D VAR
Expected/Realized Performance
Impact
TBD TBD TBD TBD
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Multi-Model vs. Single Model Ensembles
• Research has shown that combining forecasts from several models increases forecast skill
– Impact of individual model error is reduced
– Provides better information on forecast uncertainty
• Key conclusions from recent ECMWF study:
– Multi-model ensembles are more skillful than single model ensembles
– The benefit is not just from having a larger total number of ensemble members
– Adding a model with less-than-average skill to a multi-model combination usually increases forecast proficiency http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/118.pdf
• Additional confirmation from recent NAEFS study:
– Forecast improvements are gained not only due to the increased number of members in an ensemble, but also to the different combinations of models used http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008MWR2682.1
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NUOPC Long Range Goals
• Implementing a global atmospheric ensemble system designed to enhance predictive capability
• Shared development among government agencies
• Clearly articulating operational requirements and a corresponding National research agenda, with initial emphasis on hurricane track/intensity forecasts, joint wind and seas forecasts, and ceiling/visibility forecasts
• Accelerating the transition of new technology to the Tri-Agency operating centers
• Implementing ways to promote broad community participation in addressing the National research needs.
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FY ‘10 Costs Summary• NUOPC Architecture and Infrastructure:
– $780 K to ESMF to begin NUOPC Layer– $260 K for model interoperability
• Joint Development and Operations:– $520 for NAEFS IOC– $100 K Comms upgrades
• Research to Operations– $200 K to develop common metrics and R&D agenda– $183 K for NUOPC committee support
• Management and Overhead– $1,140 K for parts of 7 support staff
• Total $3,183 K
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