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Social Media: NWSHouston 4:22 PM
5/22/2017 weather.gov/houston
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
2017 Hurricane Season Outlook
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What is a Hurricane, a Tropical Cyclone? • Storm that forms over the warm waters of the tropical oceans
characterized by a closed counter-clockwise circulation (in the Northern Hemisphere) and typically with thunderstorms around the center.
• TC classifications: Hurricane >73 mph, Tropical Storm 39-73 mph, Tropical Depression <39 mph
Hurricane Rita 2005 Tropical Storm Bill 2015
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Easterly waves indicated by dashed lines
Some develop into hurricanes!
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National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
2017 Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic Hurricane Season: June 1 – November 30th
Peak of season August and September
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Hurricane Ike View from Radar
Spiral Bands
Eye Wall
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Hurricane/Tropical Storm Potential Hazards
Storm Surge Flooding Tornadoes
Flooding Rains Damaging Winds
Every storm will have a different set of hazards
TS Allison (2001)
Ike (2008), Carla (1961)
Alicia (1983) Andrew (1992) Camille (1969) Carla (1961)
Buelah (1967)
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Port Lavaca Area
Other Hazards: Snakes (after Carla)
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Rappaport, Edward N., 2014: Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: New Data and Interpretation
Cause of death in the United States directly attributable to Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1963–2012.
Percentage of 1963–2012 Atlantic tropical cyclones (right scale) and deadly U.S. tropical cyclones (left scale) in which noted types of fatalities occurred in the United States.
Which Hazard is the Most Deadly?
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Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph)
Storm Examples Wind Impacts
Tropical Depression
Less than 39 mph Relatively minor
Tropical Storm
Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant
1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce
Claudette 2003 some damage Humberto 2007
2 96 - 110 Georges 1998 Ike 2008
Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage
3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005 Rita 2005
4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage Carla 1961
5 > 156 Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damage Camille 1969
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
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Category 2 or Larger Storms Since 1850 to Make Landfall in Shaded Area; 14 in all, 8 of 14 developed in Gulf of Mexico
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Carla 1961
1932
Alicia 1983
1900
1915 Ike 2008
1943
1909
Some of the Significant Historical Storms
1941
1949
1879
1866
1945
1942
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2010: 4,093,000 2016 est: 4,600,000
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2016 Outlook Near or Above Normal Activity for Atlantic (and Gulf)
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What Occurred: 15 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes; Florida, SE Coast Heavily Impacted, Texas Not
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So What’s the Hurricane Season Forecast This Year?
It really doesn’t matter since it only takes 1!
http://hurricanes.gov/prepare/
Bolivar Peninsula After Ike 2008
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Least active season 1983 (4 named stor
It Only Takes One
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Near Average Year?
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Worst Case Category 1
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/StorytellingTextLegend/index.html?appid=b1a20ab5eec149058bafc059635a82ee
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Worst Case Category 2
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Worst Case Category 3
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Worst Case Category 4
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Worst Case Category 5
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Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula Devastation
Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/
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Early rise trapped many on Bolivar, Galveston Island Don’t wait too long to evacuate surge zones, especially barrier islands; Need to account for the forerunner; water covering roads 24 hours ahead of landfall
Landfall Water on Roads
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AP Photo/David J. Phillip
Hurricane Ike: SE TX Coast Surge/Coastal Flooding
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Storm Surge from Ike, Bolivar
AP/Dallas Morning News, Guy Reynolds
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Southeast Texas Hurricane Guides • Checklists
• Evacuation zone maps
• Tracking charts
• What to do before,
during and after a storm
• Online version • https://go.usa.gov/x5USR