Download - Nato Trident and Scottish Independence
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NATO, Trident &Scottish Independence
Presentation toSNP CND conference
STUC Glasgow25 August 2012
John Ainslie, Coordinator, Scottish CND
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NATO, Trident &Scottish Independence
1. Trident: Nowhere to go
2. Disarming Trident
3. NATO & nuclear weapons
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1. Trident: Nowhere to go
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Move Trident to England/Wales ?
1. Base for submarines to replaceFaslane
2. Depot for missiles and nuclear
warheads to replace Coulport
New Facilities needed -
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Polaris Site Selection 1963
All sites on Eastand South coastsfrom the Firth of
Forth to Portlandruled out
too far from deep
water(100 fathoms)
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Shortlist
Scotland:
Faslane, Rosyth, Invergordon, Loch Alsh,Loch Ryan and Fort William.
Wales:
Milford Haven
England:Devonport, Falmouth and Portland
Polaris Site Selection 1963
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Polaris Site Selection 1963
Portland
Milford Haven
DevonportFalmouth
Options inEngland& Wales
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Move Trident to England/Wales ?
Trident needs far morespace than the MOD
assumed was neededfor Polaris in 1963.
Coulport was expandedto three times its originalsize to accommodateTrident
Coulport Trident nuclear depot
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Move Trident to Milford Haven ?
Five major oil and gas facilitieswould have to close.
These handle 30% of the UKs
gas and 25% of the UKs oil
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Move Trident to Portland ?
Former MOD site
used for OlympicsNo site for Coulport
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Move Trident to Devonport ?
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Move Trident to Devonport ?
Risk assessment forFaslane shiplift shows anaccident can lead to
explosion of 560 tonnesTNT equivalent anddispersal of 160 kgplutonium.
This would beunacceptable in a city of
250,000.
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Move Trident to Falmouth ?
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Move Trident to Falmouth ?
Nuclear depot
Too close to FalmouthLoss of 2 villagesLand purchase complexLoss of watersports
industry
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Is any greenfield site viable ?
New Nuclear Power StationsOnly existing sites seriously
Scrapped submarinesOnly options Rosyth or Devonport
MOD 1979Greenfield site an illusion Frank Cooper
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Move Trident to Barrow ?
Walney Channelis too shallow
for Tridentsubmarines
HMS Repulse ran aground when launched
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Move UK Trident to the USA ?
Considered in 1981 and ruled out.
UK would need to keep control of
weapons at all times to comply
with NPT and so would need
separate facilities.
UK Trident would be transparently
dependent on US.
Would need consent of Congress.
US Navy Trident base
Kings Bay, Georgia, USA
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Move UK Trident to France ?
Ile Longue is toosmall for Trident
safety zones
UK would need to
build a new facilityElsewhere in France.
UK Trident would
depend on Franceand US.
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Where can Trident go ?
BarrowMilford Haven
PortlandDevonport
FalmouthDevonport-Falmouth
USA
France
NOWHERE !
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Nowhere to Go
No Trident in Scotland
meansNo nuclear weapons in the UK
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Nowhere to Go
No Trident in Scotland
meansNo nuclear weapons in the UK
Implications:
1. Pro-nuclear lobby will oppose & delay
2. Scotland could have a major impact onglobal nuclear disarmament
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2. Disarming Trident
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Disarming Trident
Phase 1
End operational deployment of submarines
Time to complete from Day 1 7 days
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Disarming Trident
Phase 3
Deactivate missiles
Time to complete from Day 1 8 days
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Disarming Trident
Phase 4
Remove nuclear warheads from submarines
Time to complete from Day 1 8 weeks
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Disarming Trident
Phase 5
Remove missiles from two submarines
Time to complete from Day 1 10 weeks
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Disarming Trident
Phase 6
Disable nuclear warheads by removing parts
Time to complete from Day 1 1 year
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Disarming Trident
Phase 7
Remove nuclear warheads from Scotland
Time to complete from Day 1 2 years
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Disarming Trident
Phase 8
Dismantle nuclear warheads at Burghfield
Time to complete from Day 1 4 years
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Disarming Trident
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Disarming Trident
Bruce Blair: The report accurately
describes the essential steps ... If anythingthe timetable is conservative
Richard Garwin: The missiles
and nuclear weapons can bedisabled within weeks and
removed within two years anddismantled within four years if
that were judged to be desirable
Scottish Government: The suggestedtimetable is a welcome indication of howquickly Trident could be removed
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3. NATO & nuclear weapons
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NATO an unequal alliance
United States$700 billion
27 otherNATO members
$300 billion
DefenceSpending2011
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Nuclear Weapons in NATO
Countries withtheir ownnuclear weapons
UK
US
France
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Nuclear Weapons in NATO
Countries withtheir ownnuclear weapons
Countries hostingAmericannuclear weapons
UK
US
France
Germany
Italy
Belgium
Netherlands
Turkey
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US nuclear weapons in Europe
American B 61nuclear bombscan be carried
by aircraft of thehost nation.
B 61 being fitted on a GermanAir Force Tornado
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US nuclear weapons in Europe
Country Number of nuclear weapons
For use by
host Air Force
For use by
US Air Force
Total
Germany 10-20 10-20
Italy 10-20 50 60-70
Belgium 10-20 10-20
Netherlands 10-20 10-20
Turkey 10-20 50 60-70
Total 50-100 100 160-200
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Belgian attitude to US B61s
Since 2005, successiveparliaments have called
on their government totake action, within NATO,to have nuclear weaponsremoved.
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Dutch attitude to US B61s
Parliament motionApril 2010:
Inform the US
government that it
regards the withdrawal of
these nuclear weapons
as desirable.
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German attitude to US B61s
Foreign Minister GuidoWesterwelle called on NATO towithdraw nuclear weapons(Bundestag Nov 2010)
Removal of the weapons is partof the Coalition Agreement ofthe Government
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NATOs Groundhog Day
2010
Germany, Belgium & Netherlandscall for NATO to review its nuclearweapons policy
Nov2010 Lisbon Summit sets up a review
2012 Quad of 4 countries, 3 of them nuclearweapons states (US, UK & France)draft the final text
May2012
Chicago summit agrees no change toNATOs nuclear policy
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2012/05/nucleargroundhog.php
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US plan to modernise the B61
The US are planning to spend$11 billion upgrading B61.
The new B 61-12 would be a
precision guided weapon.
It would be based in Europe aswell as the USA.
NATO effectively endorsed thisat the May 2012 Chicagosummit.
The B 61-12 is so expensiveit has been called the
gold-plated nuclear bomb.
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2012/07/b61-12gold.php
Th l f N
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The example of Norway
Norway doesnt allow nuclear
weapons on its soil.
Norway promotes nuclear
disarmament at NPTconferences.
Norway supports NATO and
is cautious about criticisingNATOs nuclear policy.
a
a
x
NATO d di
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NATO and disarmament
NATO is a roadblock tonuclear disarmament.
It has discouraged
European countriesfrom telling the US towithdraw its nuclearweapons.
S i NATO TRIDENT
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Scenario 1: NATO yes TRIDENT no
Independent Scotland says to NATOWe want to be in NATO, but Trident must go.
The US and RUK want to keep Trident at Faslane.So NATO keeps Scotland waiting and says
This is a difficult issue ... We need to reach a consensus ...
We dont want to upset the cohesion of the alliance
As the years go by, Scotland is woven into the fabric ofNATO and removing Trident becomes more difficult.
S i 2 NATO TRIDENT
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Scenario 2: NATO no TRIDENT no
Independent Scotland saysno to Trident and NATO
US and RUK want to keep
Trident
but they realise the gameis up and Scotland wont
budge.
Trident is removed ASP.
Nuclear weapon convoy
heading South
S
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Summary
There is nowhere for Trident to go
If Westminster, the US and NATO think that Scotlandmight negotiate and allow Trident, then they will stalland delay
Staying outside NATO is a clear sign that there is noscope for negotiating a lease agreement for Trident
An independent Scotland could insist that Trident isdisabled within one week and that all nuclearweapons are removed within two years.