Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts ofNatural Disasters for a Safer RegionYoshio KajitaniProfessor, Faculty of Engineering and Design, Program of Disaster and Crisis Management
Background
Economic Losses from 1998 to 2017 due to natural disasters (stock losses) were estimated as300 trillion dollars (U.N.), doubled from the losses in previous 20 years. However, this estimate excludes flow losses (e.g. income, GDP).
102.4 103.5
69.8 70.4
86.3
93.7 92.895
97 96 95.998.5
102 102.6
87.589.5
94.497.8 99.2 100.9 99.7
101.899.3
101.3
Ind
ex
and
Ind
ust
rial
Pro
du
ctio
n
Severely Damaged Area Outside the Severely Damaged Area
Economic Losses (stock losses) from 1998 to 2017Impacts on industrial production after the 2011Tohoku Earthquake (a part of flow losses)
Model
・(modeling) damagesTo infrastructures andIndustrial facilities・Impacts ofInfrastructure damagesTo industrial activities・Interregional and Interindustry impacts(general equilibrium model for disaster conditions )
(Cited fromEarthquakeSpectra, 2009Economic Systems Research,2014,2018)
Applicability(validation of the2011 Tohoku Earthquake)
・the estimates well agreewith the observation⇒Risk assessment for otherNatural disasters, cost-benefit analysis is a Promising application.
Production Capacity Losses(supply shock)
Hazard(Ground motion,
Tsunami)
Interregional and intersectoralimpacts (incl. supply-chain
damages)
TimeDisaster
Pro
du
ctio
n C
apac
ity
Facility Damage
Facility Damage
+Recovery
+Lifeline Impact
Facility Damage+Recovery
Facility Damage+
Lifeline Impact
Firms
Household
Export
Labor Market
GoodsMarket
Import
Region A (Damaged Region)
GoodsMarket
Household
Firms
Region B
Region C
．．．．
ExportsImports
(TransportationCost)
input
