![Page 1: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance:Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation
• NERACOOS Wave Runup forecasts leveraged for real-
-time warnings (Partnership with GMRI/NWS)
• 3 Recent Extreme Storms that were unique
– October 30th, 2017
– January 4th, 2018
– March 3rd, 2018
* Thanks to Riley Morse, Ian Ogilvie, Tom Shyka and many others!!!Photo: Cathleen Stackpole
![Page 2: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
October 30, 2017 “Outlier”Low astronomical tides/High Wind & Storm Surge Event
![Page 3: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
October, 2017 Near Record Warm Water✓ Large storm✓ Strong winds mixed down from aloft ✓ Equals: Powerful Storm Surge
Courtesy: Andrew Pershing
![Page 4: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
300,000
500,000
Power Outages Maine
![Page 5: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Storm Surge 2.81 feet/But low Astro tides
Storm Surge
![Page 6: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
NERACOOS Wave Run-up Output
Correctly predicted erosion only during an odd event
![Page 7: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
January 4, 2018Near all-time Record High Storm Tide Event
“Bombogenesis”
Hayden Frank
![Page 9: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Wave Heights (M)
Extreme Storm Tide Combines with Large, BatteringWaves in the Boston Area = Record Flooding
NECOFS WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
![Page 10: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Photo by Tom Shyka, Portland ME
Portland Public Works
![Page 11: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
NECOFS Inundation Forecast
Backbay Hampton: 18:00Z, Jan. 4th
Buoy “B”
NECOFSObserved20’
![Page 12: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
NERACOOS Wave Run-up: NECOFS correctly predicted wave heights/ESTOFS too low
![Page 14: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
* This is the “boulders are going into the road” tideas reported by local EMA! Major dune erosion and structural damage over several tide cycles.
![Page 15: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
3000 years old Revolutionary War
![Page 16: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Ferry Beach “Storm Based” Dune Survey: March 1st Followed by March 7th
Before the storm After the storm
![Page 17: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Correctly predicted repeatederosion over many tide cycles
![Page 20: NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidanceneracoos.org/sites/neracoos.org/files/6. Cannon_2.pdf · NERACOOS Wave Runup Guidance: Forecasting Erosion, Splash-over and Inundation •NERACOOS Wave](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022070708/5eb5d6e3d6be4f35c0723b7d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
NERACOOS Wave Runup Output Performance
▪ Your products elicit storm responses! Performed very well!▪ Future goal: NERACOOS wave run-up “alerts” are
automatically pushed via e-mail to NWS Situational Awareness Operations PCs when criteria are met!