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Lecture L06 DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION
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Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough” products can succeed?!
What are the customers really buying?
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Porn Industry !
Licensing Issues !
Betamax standard tape was 60 minutes while VHS was 2 hours
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What happend to Blu-ray vs. HD DVD format war?
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Menlo Park1876-1881
Tomas Edison
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Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
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Enrico Caruso 1873-1921
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Edison’s ideas for the phonograph
1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people3. The teaching of elocution.4. Reproduction of music.5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons.6. Music-boxes and toys.7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc.8. The preservation of languages9. Educational purposes10. Connection with the telephone
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html
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Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola
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VisiCalc
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Technological change is relatively easy
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It’s the social, organisational and cultural change that is hard
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Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
Diffusion of Innovation
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TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
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In the early days !The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market
In the later days !The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
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In the early days !THEY BUY FOR THE
WHY
In the later days !THEY BUY FOR THE
WHAT
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
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VISIONARIES
WHY
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
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Why is Apple so successful when other
companies fail?
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APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND ALMOST BACKRUPT IN 1997 IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD
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image: cultformac
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AAPL Apple stock from 1997 to now
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Brain NEO CORTX: RATIONAL, ANALITICAL THOUGHT, LANGUAGE
LIMBRIC SYSTEM: FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY, BEHAVIOUR, DECISION MAKING
REPTILIAN: INSTINCTS, HUNGER, DANGER
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Start with Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Action Simon Sinek
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FORMULA FOR SUCCESS?!
1. Strong funding2. Right people3. Market conditions
Is this all it takes?
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Samuel Pierpont Langley
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Technology Adoption Life Cycle
VISIONARIES
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Source: Geoffrey A. Moore: Crossing the chasm
Crossing the ChasmThe change in customers as technology matures Crossing the chasm – or the Tipping point
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What triggers the tipping point?
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What caused the tipping point for the iPod?
Apple said it sold a record 22.7 million iPods, which commands a 70% share of the U.S. market for music players. (source: LA times)
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Apple iPod Sales
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Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
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!
Theory of Predicting the FutureAnderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future!
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:
!
1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free
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Waiting in line…
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NEXTBECOMING INVISIBLE