Bezit is uit, delen is in
6 juli 2016
Nieuwe businessmodellen –flexibel en servicegericht
2
FAR – 90 analysts worldwide cover the entire F&A value chain
New York
Mexico City
Sao Paulo
Buenos AiresSydney
Santiago de Chile
Calgary
ChicagoFresno
Melbourne
Christchurch
St Louis
LondonUtrecht
Hong Kong
Singapore
Mumbai
Shanghai
Beijing
New Delhi
3
Food world moving (fast)
Business Model Generation; Alexander Osterwalder & Yves Pigneur, 2009
Netherlands: excellent international position in FPM
5
• Historically The Netherlands has had a strong focus on: (i) efficiency of the
food and agri chain (high population density), (ii) export of food and agri
products (international trade focused country), (iii) import of overseas
products (strategic position in Europe, former colonies) and (iv) specific food
and agri products like bulbs, flowers, potatoes, and dairy products
• This resulted in a international strong position both product and knowledge
wise:
– Highest yields in agriculture worldwide: #1 value added per hectare and
per fte; 4-5 times higher than European average
– Excellent export position in food and agri products: #2 worldwide exporter
(US #1); 80% of export to European countries
– Attractive business climate for international Food & Beverage companies:
30% of top 40 companies has R&D and/or (European) HQ in NL
14%
11%
2% 2% 1%
6%
3%2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Export R&D Sales Gross value added Employees
Historically the Dutch food and agri industry has always had an international strong position
Source: De bosatlas van het voedsel, 2014
Source: Topsector Agro & Food, De Nederlandse groeidiamant, 2011
Source: Rabobank calculation based on CBS (2012) and Topsectoren, Jaarbericht sectoren 2015
Excellent knowledge base: “Valleys and ports”The Netherlands has a relatively large food industry
Economic impact of F&A in The Netherlands (% of Dutch total)¹
Note 1: Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs uses a broader definition of the Topsector Agri and Food: it adds also retail, distribution and wholesale linked to F&A to calculate F&A’s economical impact. As a consequence the impact almost triples when using this broader definitionNote 2: Agri products are the main export product (not being processed foods)
Coolport
Seed valley
Food valley
Noordwest
Zuidwest
Oosterschelde Venlo(fruit, vegetable)
N-H Noord(agribusiness)
Aalsmeer(floriculture)
Boskoop(trees)
Duin en bollenstreek(bulbs, flowers)
Westland-Oostland/Horti Campus(horticulture)
Dairy valley
Lauwersoog
Agri-bulk port
Urk
Cacaoport
Innexus
HANNN
Innofood Twente
Knowhouse
World PatatoCapital
ZaanstreekFirst in Food
Food Connection
Point
Brainport(Food tech)
FoodportZeeland
Health valley
Blueport
Valley (knowledge)
Business network
Greenport
Food processing
Primary sector
²
6
Dutch FPM industry plays an important international role with a market share in global export of 11% and global import of 12%
Source: UNCTAD, Rabobank
Largest importers, share in global import
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
US
Russia
Germ
any
Chin
a
UK
The N
eth
erlands
Spain
India
Italy
Largest exporters, share in global export
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Germ
any
Italy
The N
eth
erlands
US
Chin
a
Sw
itzerland
Fra
nce
Largest export countries for Dutch FPM
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Russia US Germany UK Belgium China France Turkey
• Global FPM market 2014E: USD 40bn
• Global FPM export 2013: USD 16bn
• Global export quote: 40%
• CAGR 2000-2013, only CAGR >10% presentedx%
31%
14%
15%
20%
12%
12%21%
11%
22%
7
Chinese competition is gaining ground rapidly
Source: UNCTAD, Rabobank
Largest importers, share in global import
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
US
Russia
Germ
any
Chin
a
UK
The N
eth
erlands
Spain
India
Italy
Largest exporters, share in global export
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Germ
any
Italy
The N
eth
erlands
US
Chin
a
Sw
itzerland
Fra
nce
Largest export countries for Dutch FPM
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Russia US Germany UK Belgium China France Turkey
• Global FPM market 2014E: USD 40bn
• Global FPM export 2013: USD 16bn
• Global export quote: 40%
• CAGR 2000-2013, only CAGR >10% presentedx%
31%
14%
15%
20%
12%
12%21%
11%
22%
Remaining competitive in rapidly changing market
9
Customer, competition, tech trends have most fundamental impact on the future of Dutch FPM companies
Source: Expert interviews, Rabobank
Long term Short term
Legislation
Finance
Exchange rates
Emergingmarkets
Retail chain dominance
Nanotech
3D Printing
Competition emerging markets
Capital market access
Mid-end battle field
Service demand
Changing consumptionpatterns
Volatile raw material prices
Supply base
ProfessionalisationConsolidation
Price competition
Robotics
Sensors Shortage technical staff
Level of impact
+++ +
Integrated solutions
Energy costdisadvantages
A. Customers
B. Competition
C. Technology
Smart Industry
EuropeanHSE
regulation
Food safety regulation in emerging
markets
Food safetyConsolidation
HSE issues
10
Pace of change, complexity and uncertainty are rising
Business Model Generation; Alexander Osterwalder & Yves Pigneur, 2009
Technology
advancing
Competition
rising
Clients acting
more
professional
Powerplay
food retailers
Health and
Transparency
Sustainability
11
Trends are pulling food manufacturers in all directions
12
Challenges = opportunities
III. Trends | Dutch FMP short and long term trends radar
HIGHER INVESTMENTS
HIGHER QUALITY
MORE SERVICE
SHORTER PAYBACK TIME
MORE POSSIBILITIESMORE FLEXIBILITY
HIGHER DEMANDS
13
Headache reduction: machinebuilder asked to share in the risks
Module
manufacturer
System integrator
Turn-key
Guaranteed
up-time
Pay-on-production
Service
Ris
k s
haring
14
The Über-solution – copying what is already there
How can we help you?
16
Common practice outside the food industry
17
Pay-on-production – financing example
18
If the core process is a step too far for food manufacturers
Conclusions
20
In a few bullets
1. Dutch food equipment manufacturers have a market
position to be proud of
2. There is no time for complacency though
3. Your clients are facing multiple challenges
4. And are offloading the risks to their suppliers
5. Financing alternatives are available for you to
accommodate your clients
Questions?
22
Contactgegevens
Rabobank Food & Agri Research
Croeselaan 18
3521 CB Utrecht
Rabobank
Sebastiaan Schreijen
Senior Analyst F&A Nederland
Telephone +31 (0)30 71 23831
Mobile +31 (0)6 1001 5468
E-mail [email protected]
This document has been prepared exclusively for your benefit and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. (“Rabobank”), registered in Amsterdam. Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed, reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Rabobank. The information in this document reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgement as of this date, all of which may be subject to change. This document is based on public information. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable, without independent verification. The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any potential offers, transactions, commercial ideas et cetera contained in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation. This document shall not form the basis of or cannot be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information in this document is not intended and may not be understood as an advice (including without limitation an advice within the meaning of article 1:1 and article 4:23 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act). This document is governed by Dutch law. The competent court in Amsterdam, The Netherlands has exclusive jurisdiction to settle any dispute which may arise out of or in connection with this document and/or any discussions or negotiations based on it. This report has been published in line with Rabobank’s long-term commitment to international food and agribusiness. It is one of a series of publications undertaken by the global department of Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory. ©2016 - All Rights Reserved.