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Jim Spohrer (IBM)Bergen, Norway – Frontiers in Service, Conference
Friday June 24,, 2016http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/norway-frontiers-20160624-v3
Industry 4.0: A Digital Service Transformation
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What is Industry 4.0?
© IBM UPWard 2016
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History of the idea: Mirror Worlds
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Why is this relevant?
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I am still very skeptical… but tell me more….
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Managers: Courage Required….
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Talent required, but…
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Industry 4.0
© IBM UPWard 2016
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CyberPhysical Systems?
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Industry 4.0
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Yesterday: Servitization
• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”
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Tomorrow: Servitization• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system
– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance
across their life-cycles– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance,
efficiency, maintenance, etc.– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with
financing/Internet of Service– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability
• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups
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Vision: MMaaRRSS
• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for
customer Y.”– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)
• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)
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Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap
and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens
with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy
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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
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“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
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I have…
Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
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Learning to program:My first program
Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945
Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
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Fast Forward 2016:Consider this…
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Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016
© IBM UPWard 2016
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IBM Image Tagging
© IBM UPWard 2016
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IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…
© IBM UPWard 2016
So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access
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Culture change
© IBM UPWard 2016
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But this stuff is still really hard…
© IBM UPWard 2016
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$5M Prize: for best AI to help uson societal grand challenge problems
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Societal Grand Challenges
© IBM UPWard 2016
Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?
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Two assertions
• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.
– Agree/disagree?
• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.
– Agree/disagree?
© IBM UPWard 2016
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1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055
Can better service help us be wiser?
Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
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What exists in 2016?
360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
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Reality 2.0 Service Platform:polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)
do not interrupt people (P1,P2)
© IBM UPWard 2016
Service Platform
CM2
P2
CM1
P1
100x
100x 100x
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By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators
Empathy & Teamwork
sectorregion/culture
discipline Dept
h
Breadth
STEM
Liberal Arts
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05/02/2023 37© IBM UPWard 2016
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What might Reality 2.0 look like?
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How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?
What might it look like?
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Computing: Then, Now, Projected
05/02/2023
2035
2055
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Wise Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions
Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value
Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
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Cognitive Mediatorsfor all people in all roles
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Occupations = Many Tasks
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Watson Discovery Advisor
Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
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User Models
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Courses• 2015
– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject
• 2025– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week
• 2035– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves
• 2055– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”– Most people have 100 digital workers.
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“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
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In Summary
“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”
Cognitive SystemsEntities
Service SystemsEntities With
CognitiveMediators
Add Rights &Responsibilities
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Future-Ready T-Shapes
© IBM UPWard 2016
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IBM Research, Patents, Data, Cognitive
© IBM UPWard 2016
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Explain external phenomena
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Explain internal phenomena
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Explainvalue co-creationphenomena
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Physics Chemistry Biology
Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence
Engineering Management PublicPolicy
Education Design Humanities
Natural Systems
Cognitive Systems
Service Systems
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Brief History of AI
• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”
on IBM Bluemix
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Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear
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Sciences provide…• Frameworks for people to ask and answer
questions systematically• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”
Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -“To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”
Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing, should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch? A re-makers movement?
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The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology
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Dedication: Doug EngelbartFather of the mouse and
augmentation theory
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Future of Skills
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T-Shaped “Future Ready” Talent
© IBM UPWard 2016
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CSIG