1
Victor Hom
Forecast Services Division
Water Resources Services Branch
National Weather Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Email: [email protected]
Association of State Floodplain Managers
Phoenix, Arizona
Session A4 1030AM - June 19, 2018
NWS Synopsis of 2017 Hurricanes
Harvey, Irma, and Maria
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
National Weather Service
Greg Waller
Water Gulf River Forecast Center
Southern Region
National Weather Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Email: [email protected]
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Extremely Active 2017
Atlantic Hurricane Season•17 Named
Storms
•10 Hurricanes
• 6 Major
Hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5)
o2 Major Hurricanes
to Strike Continental
US in 12 years
o1 Major Hurricanes
Devastating Puerto
Rico
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/
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Objectives
Hurricane Harvey, Irma, and Maria
• Genesis, Development, and Formation
• NOAA NWS Products and Services
• Review Significant Wind-Water Impacts
• Share References to key NOAA
websites
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
(l.ead.me/bauwei)
4
Hurricane Harvey
17 August to 1 September 2017•Tropical Storm
before 00Z Aug
18th.
•Weakened
storm Aug 19th
to 23rd.
•Return to
Tropical Storm
on Aug 23rd.
•Hurricane on
Aug 24th
•Major Hurricane
late on 25th.
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/HARVEY_graphics.php
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Hurricane Harvey Makes Landfalls
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/noaa-satellite-imagery-hurricane-harvey
•1st Landfall on
northern end of San
Jose Island 5 n mi
east of Rockport, TX
at 03Z Sat. Aug 26th.
• Category 4 on Saffir-
Simpson Scale
•Sustained winds115 kt
• Minimum central
pressure of 937 mb
•2nd Landfall 3 hrs later
6
Hurricane Harvey – Wind
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey
• Cove Harbor and
Tx-35 at
Rockport, Texas
• Damaged Boat
Storage Facility
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Hurricane Harvey – Spawned Tornadoes
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
• 24 tornadoes were
confirmed
• Many of the
tornadoes were
generally small,
but even small
tornadoes can
cause significant
damage.
• EF 1 Damaged
Trees in
Matagorda County
http://arcg.is/2rRdmWv
https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey
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Hurricane Harvey – Storm Surge
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey
• Storm surge up to
12.5 feet
• Aransas National
Wildlife Refuge,
San Antonio and
Lavaca Bays
severely impacted
9Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/lch/2017harvey
Hurricane Harvey 40+ Inches of Rainfall
over Greater Houston
10Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep17/hurricane-harvey.html
Hurricane Harvey - Floods
•Parklake Village in University
Park West - Katy, TX
• Mason Creek – Tributary of
Upper Buffalo Bayou
During Harvey, 127 Flash Flood
Warnings were issued over 4 days.
11Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep17/hurricane-harvey.html
Hurricane Harvey– Combined Runoff
•Parklake Village in
University Park
West Section of
Houston, TX
• Flooding in and
around I-10 west of
the community
Lynchburg TX
•I-10 west near Lynchburg TX
•Confluence of San Jacinto and
Buffalo Bayou
12Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/hurricaneharvey
Hurricane Harvey – Record Flooding in
Southeast Texas
• 67 River Forecast
Locations in
Southeast Texas.
• 60/67 (approx. 90%)
reached flood stage.
Approximately 69%,
• 46/67 (approx. 69%)
reached major flood
stage, and
• 31/67 (approx. 46%)
crested at record
levels.Orange – Minor, Red – Moderate, Purple – Major Flood
13Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/lch/2017harvey
Hurricane Harvey 60+ Inches of Rainfall
• MRMS QPE
- 25 Aug to
1 Sept 2017
• 60.58” near
Nederland,
TX
• 60.54”
Groves, TX
• Jefferson
County TX
40”; Orange
County TX
30-50”.
14Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/lch/2017harvey
Hurricane Harvey Numbers• First category 4 to make
landfall in the U.S. since 2004
• 31 of 67 NWS river forecast
locations in impacted area set
flood records
• NWS issued over 300 flood-
related warnings
• 68 deaths directly attributed
(65 flood deaths)
• Approximately 400,000 vehicles
destroyed
• Nearly 300,000 homes
damaged and over 16,000
homes declared destroyedFive-day observed rainfall analysis from 7 a.m., Friday,
August 25–30. Source: NOAA
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Hurricane Irma
30 August to 12 September 2017•TD 00Z Aug30th
•Strengthened to
TS ~6 hrs later
on Aug 30th.
•Hurricane on
Aug 31st 06Z.
•Developing into
Major Hurricane
00Z Sep 1-3.
•Sustained Major
Hurricane ‘til FL
on 00Z Sep 11
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php
TD – Tropical Depression; TS – Tropical Storm
Irma made landfall as cat 5 on
Barbuda around 06Z Sep 6
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Hurricane Irma
Eye on Florida
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf
•Maximum winds
of 185 mph
•Strongest storm
on record in the
Atlantic Ocean
outside of the
Caribbean and
Gulf of Mexico.
•Cat. 5 for 3 days
Longest world
recorded cyclone
to maintain that
type of intensity
Hurricane Irma Infrared Satellite Loop From
September 10th, 2017
17Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/PNS_91717.pdf
Hurricane Irma Tornadoes
•The tornado strengthened into
EF-2 intensity with estimated
wind speeds of 115 to 125 mph
and affected homes on Kilbee
St, Turnbull, and Brevard Rd.
21 Confirmed
Tornadoes in
Florida and 4
in South
Carolina
18Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/sep17/hurricane-irma.html
Hurricane Irma Wind and Waves
Boats
•Boats washed ashore, Sand, Debris, Homes Ruined, Off Foundations
Key Largo, FL
19Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf
Hurricane Irma Storm Surge
•6 -10 ft
AGL SW
FL; 3-5 ft
AGL NE FL
• USGS
storm tide
sensor
Everglades
City - 8.31
ft NAVD88
~ 7.5 ft
MHHW
USGS storm sensor deployment for IRMA: https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#IrmaSeptember2017
Above Ground
Level (AGL)
20Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.weather.gov/media/serfc/alert/SERFC_DOSM_Sep_11.pdf
Hurricane Irma Rainfall and FloodingRainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches
common across FL and the Keys
St. John’s River in downtown
Jacksonville Record Flooding
21Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf
Hurricane Irma USA Impacts
In United States,
10 direct, 82
indirect, and 77
deaths in FL.
Hundreds more
injured before,
during, or after
the hurricane.
6 million
residents in
Florida were
evacuated from
coastal areas.
Cars inundated by
floodwaters.
22Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112017_Irma.pdf
Hurricane Irma Devastating Impacts
47 direct deaths due to strong winds, heavy rains, and high
surf (Caribbean Islands and the southeastern USA).
Majority of the causalities were in the Caribbean Islands,
where winds were the strongest.
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•TD 12Z Sep16th
•Strengthened to
TS ~6 hrs later
on Sep 16th
•Hurricane on
Sep 17th.
•Major Hurricane
on 12Z Sep 18th
•Major Hurricane
with max winds
~135 kt onto PR
11Z Sep 20th
Hurricane Maria
16 -30 September 2017
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/MARIA_graphics.php
24Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/weather-disasters.html
Hurricane Maria Facts
• First category 5 hurricane
ever to make landfall in
Dominica.
• Strongest hurricane to
make landfall in Puerto
Rico since 1928
• Deadliest of 2017’s three
major storm.
25Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152017_Maria.pdf
Hurricane Maria Winds
Winds ~167
mph Dominica
00Z Sep 19th
~155 mph PR
11Z Sep 20th
Heavy Rain:
Max of 22.8 in.
in Dominica;
Storm Total
~38 in. in
Puerto Rico
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Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge
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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/
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Hurricane Maria
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding
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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017
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Hurricane Maria
Extreme Flooding and Washouts
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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017
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Hurricane Maria Landslides
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https://www.weather.gov/sju/maria2017
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2017 Hurricane Season
Weather-Ready Nation Be a Force of Nature
[email protected] [email protected]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHm7oh0Yn60
(l.ead.me/bauwei)