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ENSO complexity:
A Monitoring and Forecasting Perspective
Slide 1
M.A. Balmaseda , Michael Mayer, Tim Stockdale, Antje Weisheimer and colleagues.
Current Ocean Monitoring Capabilities: ENSO energetics
Progress and challenges in ENSO prediction (at ECMWF)
Outlook: Coupled Century long reanalyses and reforecasts
Observations
Oce
an
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Reanalysis = maps without gaps
Reanalyses
• “Optimal” combination of information from model and observations
• Dynamical interpolation
• There are known deficiencies• Temporal consistency is a challenge
• Dynamical balance in specific regions is difficult
• Large variety of ocean reanalyses (ORAs)• ORA-IP intercomparison project
• Multi-ORA real time monitoring (NOAA-BoM)
• European GREP by CMEMS
• Continuous improvements
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Real Time Monitoring with multiple ocean reanalyses
Temperature and ENSO monitoring, NOAA, Xue et al 2017
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html
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4MAGDALENA A. BALMASEDA IV INTERNATIONAL ENSO CONFERENCE- GUAYAQUIL 15-18 OCTOBER 2018
Beyond Monitoring: characterizing ENSO energetics
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October 29, 2014
Contributors to tropical Pacific OHC evolution
5EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
• Marked differences in Indonesian Throughflow heat transport and surface heat flux
• Differences in surface fluxes related to increased absorbed solar radiation in 2015/16
Map of 0-300m 2-yearly OHC changes (in 109Jm-2) and accumulated heat
fluxes (in ZJ) during El Nino events From Mayer et al 2017
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October 29, 2014
Indonesian Throughflow transports
6EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
• Record-low ITF heat transport during 2015/16
• Mainly driven by reduced volume fluxes
• Extreme ITF behaviour in 2015/16 mainly explained by
Indian Ocean - shift towards positive SLA in Indian Ocean
from ~2008
From Mayer et al 2017
• Recent OHC evolution consistent with SLA anomalies
• Rapid Indian Ocean warming has been attributed to
negative state of Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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October 29, 2014
Radiation at top-of-the-atmosphere
9EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
• ASR and OLR anomalies extended far less to the east in 2015/16
• Positive ASR anomalies in subtropics in 2015/16, but not present in 1997/98
• ASR anomalies dominate subtropical net radiation anomalies
All fluxes positive downward
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October 29, 2014
Advancing the forecast capabilities: new ECMWF SEAS5
10EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
SEAS5 Contributes to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal multi-model.
Johnson et al 2018, submitted
Stockdale et al 2018, in preparation
RMS errorReduced cold-tongue bias,
improved ENSO variability
increased forecast skill
attributed to better
atmospheric model and
increased ocean resolution
https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts
ACC
Variability ration (model/obs)SEAS5 SEAS4
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Steady and significant progress
Persistence
SEAS2
ensemble spread
RMS error of Nino3 SST anomalies
EUROSIP 2005
SEAS5Bayesian Calibration
2002 - SEAS2
2017 – SEAS5
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Prediction of the onset of ENSO has benefited from the reduction of model biases – more realistic air
coupled feedbacks – better simulation of westerly wind bursts.
ENSO and intraseasonal variability
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20 years or progress in ENSO prediction at ECMWF
and contribution of ocean observations
13
2.83
3.53.8
4.5
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
Le
ad
Tim
e (
mo
nth
s)
Forecast lead month for correlation above 0.9 in NINO3.4 SST anomalies
• S1 was the first ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Implemented as a pilot in 1997
• SEAS5 is the latest ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Implemented in November 2017.
Contributes to Copernicus Climate Change Services C3S.
2.8 33.5
3.84.5
3.2
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S5-NoOobs
Gain about 2 months in
ENSO prediction
What if we did not have
ocean observations?
We would lose about 15
years of progress.
1997
• System 1
2002
• System 2
2006
• System 3
2011
• System 4
2017• SEAS5
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SEAS5 SST normalized forecast error
verifying in August from May starts
But worrying overprediction in latest years continues
This flow dependent error appears related with low
frequency variability in cross-equatorial winds
Trend in ORAS5 meridional wind stress
(normalized anomalies)
Differences in Trends: SEAS5- ORAS5
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MAGDALENA A. BALMASEDA
ERA5
Current reanalysis products at ECMWF
15
ERA-Interim
ORAS4
LAND
ATMOSPHERE
WAVE
OCEAN
Centennial
ERA-20CM/20C
Experimental reanalyses: Centennial and Coupled
LAND
ATMOSPHERE
WAVE
LAND
ATMOSPHERE
WAVE
ORAS5
OCEAN ICE
ORA-20C
OCEAN ICE
Coupled CentennialCERA-20C
LAND
ATMOSPHERE
WAVE
OCEAN ICE
Coupled High-ResCERA-SAT
LAND
ATMOSPHERE
WAVE
OCEAN ICE
Recent period
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October 29, 2014
16MAGDALENA A. BALMASEDA GOOS WEBMINAR 9-JULY- 2018
Centennial reanalyses provide experimental records to study decadal modulations of ENSO
16
From Laloyaux et al 2018
Multivariate ENSO Index Equatorial Pacific Ocean Heat Content
(upper 300m)
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The ECMWF Coupled Reanalyses effortsensemble of earth system data assimilation
Observation uncertainties
Model uncertainties
Model forcing
uncertainties
Reanalysis uncertainties
Ocean temperature obs
assimilated in CERA-20C
1901
1950
2010
Laloyaux et al 2018) De Boisseson et al 2017
ERA-20CCERA-20C
TIWs in Coupled/Uncoupled
reanalysis of the 20th-Century
CERA-20C
CERA-SAT
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1900s
1940s
1970s
2000s
ORA-20C CERA-20CSolar radiationDecadal variations
of uncertainty
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October 29, 2014
Seasonal Reforecast data set spanning 1900-2010.
19
10 ens
24 months
May starts
1950 -1980
May starts
1981 -2010
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October 29, 2014
Summary
• Increasing monitoring capabilities, enabling the characterization of ENSO energy budget
Tropical Pacific end of 2016 was warmer than before the 2015/16 El Nino – in stark contrast to cooling associated
with earlier El Ninos
– Indonesian Throughflow, pre-conditioned by strong Indian Ocean warming in recent decade
– Absorbed solar radiation, related to unusually warm subtropical Pacific SSTs
• SEAS5: Continuous and Steady progress in ENSO forecast: resolution+physics+ocean initialization
– Overprediction in recent years associated with inability to capture the meridional asymmetry in Eastern Pacific
– SEAS5 available in C3S database
• Centennial reanalyses: an asset for understanding/attributing/predicting ENSO
– Uncoupled ERA-20C/ORA-20C and Coupled CERA-20C
– SEAS5-20c: A set of extended seasonal (24m) reforecast spanning the XX-Century with the same model
version as operational SEAS5 (at low resolution)
20EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
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EXTRA SLIDES
21
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October 29, 2014
Coupled Data Assimilation:It all started with some pilot projects; CERA and ERA-CLIM2
CERA-20C: A coupled reanalysis of the 20th century
CERA-SAT: A coupled reanalysis at higher resolution
Produce global reanalyses to reconstruct the past climate/weather of the earth system