Download - Oceanic CO 2 removal options: Potential impacts and side effects Andreas Oschlies IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel
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Oceanic COOceanic CO22 removal options: removal options:
Potential impacts and side effects Potential impacts and side effects
Andreas Oschlies
IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel
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The Problem The Problem (?)(?)The Problem The Problem (?)(?)
Global Warming
(GISTEMP, Hansen et al., 2009)
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Possible/likely risksPossible/likely risksPossible/likely risksPossible/likely risks
Individual attribution to global warming difficult
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The cause: Anthropogenic CO2The cause: Anthropogenic CO2
Atmospheric CO2 concentration rises (only about half as fast as emissions!)
Charles Keeling (1928-2005)
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Risk assessment IPCC ScenariosRisk assessment IPCC Scenarios
(IPCC, AR4, 2007)
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IPCC Scenarios & RealityIPCC Scenarios & Reality
(Manning et al., 2010)
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Projected global warmingProjected global warming
(Meinshausen et al., 2009)
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Challenge: halving global emissions by 2050Challenge: halving global emissions by 2050
• reduce global emission by factor 2
• population growth by factor 2
• energy consumption at current EU-niveau: factor 5
• required reduction in individual emissions: 2 x 2 x 5 = 20
• Reaching this by transition to carbon-neutral power sources requires installation of ~1GW/day (until 2050).
(perhaps not impossible, but VERY challenging: in 2009 Germany installed ~5GW/yr, close to required 10GW/yr)
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OptionsOptions
Anthropogenic impact on the
climate system
MitigationReducing emissions
requires collaboration
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OptionsOptions
Anthropogenic impact on the
climate system
Common welfare
MitigationReducing emissions
Adaptation
requires collaboration perception of costs
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OptionsOptions
Anthropogenic impact on the
climate system
Climate system Common welfare
MitigationReducing emissions
Climate Engineering
Adaptation
requires collaboration perception of costsunilateral option?
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Climate EngineeringClimate Engineering
(Keith, 2001)
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“Solar Radiation Management”“Solar Radiation Management”Atmospheric CO2 lifetime is long
(Archer et al., 2009)
No short-term SRM solution without CO2-sequestration
CO2-Rest von 1000 GtC
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“Solar Radiation Management”“Solar Radiation Management”
(Archer et al., 2009)
CO2-Rest von 5000 GtC
Atmospheric CO2 lifetime is long
No short-term SRM solution without CO2-sequestration
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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AfforestationAfforestation
Culturally often viewed “positively”
Limited potential (space)•Restricted to growth phase•Afforesting Australia ~10% of current emissions for ~100yr
Impacts ecosystems
Competes with food production
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AfforestationAfforestation
Forests generally darker than crop land•Particularly at high/mid latitudes in winter•Net warming or cooling?
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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“artificial trees”“artificial trees”
expensive (300 $ /ton CO2?),
Energy intensive (net CO2-sink?)
Still requires storage of CO2(courtesy David Keith)
(courtesy Klaus Lackner)
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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Lack of fertilization?Lack of fertilization?
Present-day sea-surface nitrate concentrationsmmol/m3
Mean profile
(Conkright et al., 1994)
lack of macronutrients(e.g., NO3, PO4, Si(OH)4)
lack of micronutrients(e.g., Fe)
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Ocean fertilisationOcean fertilisation
Macronutrients (NH4, NO3, PO4)
• need 140kg NH4 to fix 1t C (+70kg PO4)
• Input from land, e.g. Ocean NourishmentTM
• Artificial upwelling, e.g. AtmOcean
Micronutrients (Fe)• need 10-1000g Fe to fix 1t C (Planktos, Climos)
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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Artificial upwellingArtificial upwelling
Sea surface
Z(mix)
CO2, O2
organic matterinorganic nutrientsnutrients, CO2
z
pumping by surface wave-driven valves
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Simulated artificial upwellingSimulated artificial upwelling
potential pCO2 (in ppm) for pipes up to 1000m deep.Mean: -18ppm(might get more negative/better with time!)
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Simulated artificial upwellingSimulated artificial upwelling
potential pCO2 (in ppm) for pipes up to 1000m deep.Mean: -18ppm(might get more negative/better with time!)
Potential: about 80 GtC over 100 years (~10% of current emissions)
BUT: Small oceanic contribtion!
(Oschlies et al., 2010)
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Side effect 1: Where is the missing C?Side effect 1: Where is the missing C?In the soils!
Coc
Cter Csoil
SAT
kgC/m2
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Side effect 2: “irreversibility”Side effect 2: “irreversibility”
(Oschlies et al., 2010)
Whenever ocean upwelling is stopped, mean temperatures soon exceed those of a world without Climate Engineering.
Earth’s radiation balance:
Planet with colder surface waters stores more energy
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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Ocean Iron FertilizationOcean Iron Fertilization
Present-day sea-surface nitrate concentrationsmmol/m3
Mean profile
(Conkright et al., 1994)
lack of micronutrients
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Iron Fertilization at SeaIron Fertilization at Sea
“Give me a tanker load of iron and I will give you the next ice age”
(John Martin, early 1990s)
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(John Martin, early 1990s)
“Give me a tanker load of iron and I will give you the next ice age”
Iron Fertilization at SeaIron Fertilization at Sea
SERIES, 2002
SOIREE, 1999+ 400 kg Fe
removed~ 400 t C
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Natural Southern Ocean Fe fertilization: Crozet Islands
Natural Southern Ocean Fe fertilization: Crozet Islands
(Pollard et al., 2009)
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Simulated Southern Ocean Fe fertilizationSimulated Southern Ocean Fe fertilization
fertilized areaglobal
Potential: 60 GtC over 100 years
Global uptake < local CO2 flux
non-local backflux
(Oschlies et al., 2010)
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Possible side effect: SuboxiaPossible side effect: Suboxia
OIF-induced decrease in simulated suboxic volume!
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Possible side effect: AcidificationPossible side effect: Acidification
Reduced acidification in remote surface waters!
pH
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More (serious?) side effects: N2O, ecologyMore (serious?) side effects: N2O, ecology
Jin & Gruber (2003): offsetting effect of enhanced N2O emissions: ca 5-20%
Ecological effects poorly understood
•Ecological effects intended
•Will have winners and losers
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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Dissolution of carbonate and silicate rocksDissolution of carbonate and silicate rocksAlkalinity enhancement = neutralizes carbonic acid
Reduces pCO2 of surface water enhances air-sea CO2 flux
Major mining operation!
Limited by ocean circulation to <1GtC/yr sequestration (to avoid oversaturation; Köhler et al., 2010)
Contamination by trace metals likely.
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CO2CO2
alkalinityenhancement
afforestation
storage reservoirs
direct injection
Fe fertilization
artificial upwelling
artif.trees
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2-SequestrationCO2-Sequestration
(Oschlies, 2010)
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Direct CO2 injection into the oceanDirect CO2 injection into the ocean
Currently not allowed (London “Anti-dumping” convention & protocol)
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Direct CO2 injection into the oceanDirect CO2 injection into the ocean
According to 3D ocean circulation models, deep injection has life times of hundreds of years.
(Orr et al., 2001)
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ConclusionsConclusions Sequestration potential of all methods limited to about
1GtC/yr over 100 years, each. • Artificial upwelling: messes up Earth’s radiation balance
• Fe fertilization: messes up ecosystem, but has natural analogs
• Alkalinity enhancement: major mining operation, impurities
Direct injection has large potential but is currently considered as dumping.
Validation? • Not locally possible (if at all)