Download - Oceans of opportunity
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Oceans of opportunityHarnessing Europe’s largest domestic energy resource
Justin Wilkes
Policy Director
European Wind Energy Association
Renewable Energy and the Sea – Technological Innovation
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• The offshore wind power market
• Building the European offshore grid
• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures
Outline
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• The offshore wind power market
• Building the European offshore grid
• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures
Outline
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)
Source: European Environment Agency
Offshore wind can power Europe seven times over
EU energy demand- 3,537 TWh by 2020- 4,279 TWh by 2030
Technical potential of offshore wind- 25,000 TWh by 2020- 30,000 TWh by 2030
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2009 installations
2009 offshore wind market figures EU+Norway
• 201 turbines intstalled in 2009• 584 MW • Increase of 56% compared to 2008
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Cumulative analysis
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Cumulative analysis EU and Norway
By end 2009:
• 830 wind turbines installed & grid connected;• totalling 2,063 MW;• across 39 wind farms; • in 9 European countries.
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Cumulative analysis
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Outlook
2010 Expectations • 1000 MW to be installed• 71% market growth
• Over 100 GW in pipeline, of which:– 60 GW in government
concession/development zones– 52 wind farms fully consented, totalling
17,600 MW– 16 wind farms under construction totalling
3,500 MW
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)Offshore wind energy market in the EU 2011 – 2020 (MW)
Source: EWEA 2009
• 2011: annual installations of 1.5 GW
• 2020: annual installations of 6.9 GW
• 2020: cumulative installations of 40 GW
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)
Offshore wind energy market in the EU 2021 – 2030 (MW)
• 2021: annual installations of 7.7 GW
• 2030: annual installtions of 13.6 GW
• 2030: cumulative installations of 150 GW
Source: EWEA 2009
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Project pipeline: Spain & Portugal
Source: EWEA 2009
• Online: 0 MW• Current pipeline:
• Spain: 6,708 MW• Portugal: 301
MW
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)Offshore development – deeper and further
Development of the offshore wind industry in terms of water depth (m) and distance to shore (km) in the 2025 timeframe
Source: EWEA 2009
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• The offshore wind power market
• Building the European offshore grid
• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures
Outline
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)
EWEA’s 20 year offshore network development plan
• Based on:- Existing TSO plans- TradeWind scenarios
• Added value of plan:
- Provides step by step timetable for grid development
- Suggested capacities- Integrated with development/concession
zones
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)
EWEA’s 20 year offshore network development plan
Source: EWEA 2009
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• The offshore wind power market
• Building the European offshore grid
• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures
Outline
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Technology & Supply chain – main questions
• 10,000 turbines: Which type? Who manufactures them?
• 10,000 substructures: Which technology? • 10,000 systems: Which boats?• 10,000 heavy elements to store: Which
harbours?
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• The offshore wind power market
• Building the European offshore grid
• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures
Outline
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Wind Turbines: 3 Benchmarks
3+ MW (2004)
- GE (3.6 MW)- Siemens (3.6
MW)- Vestas- WinWind5 MW (2007) - Repower- BARD- Areva
Multibrid
2+ MW (2000) - Siemens- Vestas- Nordex
(test)
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)
turbine innovation trends
Main driver for innovation is global economic efficiency, not only generator size Drivers:• Existing designs: Improving turbine reliability, accessibility, efficiency• Upscaling: Economies of scale are foreseen with larger machines, but installation? Transportation?• New concepts: Innovative concepts variable speed / direct drive are in demo phase, and dedicated offshore designs emerge
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Wind turbines: outlook
Upscaling- Siemens - 6 MW- GE - 4 MW- Repower - 6 MW- BARD – 6.5 MW- Vestas – 6 MW
Future entrants- Clipper - 7.5 MW/10
MW- Mitsubishi - 6 MW- Acciona - 3 MW- Gamesa - 4.5 MW- Sinovel – 3 MW- Doosan - 3 MW- STX (Harakosan) - 2
MW- XEMC Darwind – 5
MW
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• The offshore wind power market
• Building the European offshore grid
• Technology & supply chain• turbines• substructures
Outline
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)
Supply chain – substructures (present)
Current market players
Source: MAKE Consulting 2009, own elaboration
• Substructures represent significant proportion of costs
• No standard design
• Manufacturing industry developed by oil and gas industry – manufacturing capacity has to improve
• Integrated approach: supply of substructures, transport and installation
• New designs and/or improved manufacturing processes crucial for improved economics
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Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW)
Supply chain – substructures (future)
Source: Carbon Trust
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Offshore wind trends
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The backbone of Europe’s energy future, Grids 2010, 23 - 24 November 2010
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Make the right connections, EWEA 2011, 14 - 17 March 2011
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Move ahead of the energy curve, Offshore 2011, 29 November - 1 December 2011
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Thank you very much for your attention
www.ewea.org/offshore
RENEWABLE ENERGY HOUSE63-65 RUE D’ARLONB-1040 BRUSSELS
T: +32 2 546 1940F: +32 2 546 1944E: [email protected]