Cedric Thomas, 2019
On FOSS Models and Upcoming Challenges
Cedric Thomas, OW2 CEO
Paris Open Source SummitParis December 10, 2019
22019 Cedric Thomas
Non-Profit Open Source OrganizationEuropean and Global
Governance Members Code Base
Community Activities
32019 Cedric Thomas
42019 Cedric Thomas
52019 Cedric Thomas
62019 Cedric Thomas
72019 Cedric Thomashttps://pixabay.com/fr/cadre-cadre-photo-remplage-1534814/
8
Cedric Thomas, 2019
DeveloperDeveloper EntrepreneurEntrepreneur EcosystemEcosystem IndustryIndustry
● Opportunistic disruption● Organic response
● Strategic commoditization● Collaborative innovation
● Concentration● Expansion
€ £$
¥€ £$
¥€ £
$¥
● Individualistic intention● Ethical sharing
Combined Proprietary & OSS
Innovation
OSS Innovation
Proprietary Innovation
92019 Cedric Thomas
Uncontrolled Reuse 80 to 90% of an application is composed of components
Recent failure: leftpad, equifax, evenstream
FUD from compliance and vulnerability war stories may slow adoption
Way forward:
Automatic license management (SPDX)
Development best practices (OpenChain)
Advanced dependency management (FASTEN)
Source: Sonatype, DevSecOps Comunity Survey, 2018
Originalcode
102019 Cedric Thomas
SaaS vs OSS OSS
Value proposition = functional code + freedom
OSS four freedoms based on access to code
Users bring in their technology efforts
Users receive free code and community support
Labour intensive
SaaS
Value proposition = consumable service
Access to code not part of the deal
Users register and provide data. Usage data is collected
Users settle their on-demand billings
Capital intensive
Capital
Labour
Code Service
GNU Logo:https://www.gnu.org/graphics/gnu-30.html
Programmer
Datacenter
112019 Cedric Thomas
IA and OSS Conventional programming
Input x Program → Output
Knowledge is in the program
Program quality is important
Developer is central to the creation process
Machine learning programming
Input x Output → Program
Knowledge is is the data
Data quality is important
Developer is lateral to the creation process
Prof. Vogelsang, TU Berlin, 2nd Hamburg Requirements Engineering Symposium
122018 Cedric Thomas
IoT and Verticalisation Beyond enterprise software
Pervasiveness of the open source model
Propagated with the software defined everything paradigm in IoT, Telco, etc.
Diversity and fragmentation
Reduced mutualisation across silos
Proprietary implementations
132019 Cedric Thomas
Deviations Opportunistic Foundations
Open innovation vs open source innovation:
Market positioning
Technology ecosystems
Information sharing
“Market power over Community”
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Tricheurs_(Le_Caravage)#/media/Fichier:Cardsharps-Caravaggio_(c.1597).jpg
Code usage control
Deviations from fundamental OSS freedoms
Variations on licenses
Re free riders
Variations on code usage intentions
Code = law?
142019 Cedric Thomas
Free Riders A tragedy of the commons
Consumer attitude drains the ecosystem
OSS maintainer burnout
OSS vendors struggling
How to reconnect users with develop communities?
Supply-push + Demand-pull
The role of the Open Source Programme Office (OSPO)
Compliance → Vulnerability
OSS ecosystem engagement
15
Cedric Thomas, 2019
OSS Innovation Reflects Market Structure
Can EU SW industry envision extraordinary profits and monopoly positions?
Outsider in SW industry → Outsider in next market (platforms, AI, etc.)
Open source software is an avatar of proprietary software industry.
Dominant positions in global software industry are reflected in open source.
OSS innovation most efficient choice where no dominant position is expected.
Proprietary IP innovations only where dominant positions can be expected.
Source: P. Evans, Global Platform Database, Center for Global Enterpsies, 2015
162019 Cedric Thomas
Won? Really? Healthy and growing market
Average 2015-2020 growth: 11.6%
The bulk of the market is still elsewhere
OSS market penetration rate goes toward 14%
A monetization issue?
But mostly invisible for conventional investors
OSS-centric vision of the world
Fish don’t know they’re in water2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Open Source Software and Services Market in Europe
OW2 estimates based on published data by PAC and Gartner
172019 Cedric Thomas
The 1% Industry? Multi-ecosystem players
Keystone players
e.g. IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, HuaweiFollowers
e.g. Orange, Adobe
Single-ecosystem players
Significant investment and commitment in a selected ecosystem
e.g. Rackspace and Fujitsu in OpenStack, Bosch in Eclipse, Telefonica in FIware, Yahoo in Apache
Niche players
Contributors (sometimes, temporarily key) and followers in single-ecosystem strategies
e.g. Mirantis, Docker, Obeo.
18
www.ow2.orgFor more details please contact Cedric Thomas, OW2 CEO, [email protected]
Q&AFeedbackComplementsDisagreementsetc.
Thank You