Download - ON INTELLIGENCE Overview 2.4
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ON INTELLIGENCE
Overview 2.4
http://tinyurl.com/2013-Steele
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Why Is Intelligence So Feeble?Money, Sex, & Spotlight Trump Secrets
Greg Treverton (1986)
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What Is Intelligence?And What Is Intelligence Not?
Intelligence Is:• Actionable Answers• Decision-Support• Evidence-Based• Holistic ProcessIntelligence Is Not:• Applied Knowledge• Beliefs in Isolation• Consciousness• Covert Action• Espionage• Secret Information• Wisdom
KnowerIntelligence
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What Form Might Intelligence Be?
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What Threats Should We Consider?01 Poverty 02 Infectious Disease 03 Environmental Degradation 04 Inter-State Conflict 05 Civil War 06 Genocide 07 Other Atrocities 08 Proliferation 09 Terrorism
10 Transnational Crime
High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, & Change (including LtGen Dr. Brent Scowcroft), A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility (United Nations, December 2004)
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What Strategies & Policies Apply?01 Agriculture 02 Diplomacy 03 Economy 04 Education 05 Energy 06 Family 07 Health 08 Immigration 09 Justice
10 Security 11 Society 12 Water
Mandate for
Change
Various Presidential Transition Teams
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Preliminary Holistic Analytic Model
Core Gaps in Holistic AnalysisEssential to Future-Proofing
What US IC Focuses On..
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Whole Systems Analytics
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Who Owns the Future?Demography Rules [Minister-Mentor Lee Kuan Yew]
India 1.7BChina 1.3BUSA 0.4BNigeria 0.4BIndonesia 0.3BPakistan 0.3BBrazil 0.22BBangladesh 0.19BPhilippines 0.15BCongo DR 0.15BEthiopia 0.15BMexico 0.14BTanzania 0.14BRussia 0.13BEgypt 0.12BJapan 0.11BViet-Nam 0.10BKenya 0.96BUganda 0.94BTurkey 0.91B
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Utility of Open SourcesEconomic and social threats, including 95%• Poverty 99%• Infectious Disease 95%• Environmental Degradation 90%
Interstate conflict 75%
Internal conflict, including 90%• Civil War 85%• Genocide 95%• Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95%
Nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological WMD 75%
Terrorism 80%
Transnational organized crime 80%2008 Open Source Intelligence [in Loch Johnson (ed) Strategic Intelligence Vol 2. Chapter 6]
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Evolutionary Path for Intelligence
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Understood from 1988 Less Cyber, Cyber Added 1992.BOTH US IC Leaders and DoD Leaders (Cheney) Refused to Acknowledge
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Illuminate True Costs
Eradicate Corruption
Educate All Publics
Harmonize Field Effects
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Fundamentals of Intelligence
1. Whole of Government Decision-Support
2. Holistic Analytics with True Cost Economics
3. Counterintelligence on Domestic Enemies
4. Integrated Scalable IT5. Open Requirements
Showing Satisfaction & Connecting Clients
6. Spend with Integrity
25 Years – US$1.2 TrillionStill Do Not Have This!
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STRATEGIC
TECHNICAL
Long Term (100 Years)
Imminent
1 Year Out
90 Days Out
72 Hours Out
12 Years Out
50 Years Out
25 Years Out
Whole of Government Institutions*
Cross-Cutting Threats & Policies
OPERATIONAL
TACTICAL* In Order of Secession to Presidency** Cabinet Rank Not In Succession
Pove
rty
Infe
ctiou
s D
isea
seEn
viro
nmen
tal D
egra
datio
nIn
ter-
Stat
e Co
nflic
tCi
vil W
arG
enoc
ide
Oth
er A
troc
ities
Prol
ifera
tion
Terr
oris
mTr
ansn
ation
al C
rime
Agric
ultu
reD
iplo
mac
yEc
onom
yEd
ucati
onEn
ergy
Fam
ilyH
ealth
Imm
igra
tion
Justi
ceSe
curit
ySo
ciet
yW
ater
PresidentVice PresidentStateTreasuryD
efenseJusticeInteriorAgricultureCom
merce
LaborH
ealth & H
uman Services
Housing &
Urban D
evelopment
TransportationEnergyEducationVeterans AffairsH
omeland Security
Environmental Protection A
gency**O
ffice of M
anagement &
Budget**U
S Trade Representative**U
S Ambassador to the U
N**
Council of Economic Advisors**
Small Business Adm
inistration**
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Full-Spectrum Intelligence
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Context & Process for Intelligence
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Government
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Civil Societies
Media
Academia
Non-Profit
InformationCommons
Secret Internal
Secret Shared
Sensitive Shared
Open (Public)
GreenYellowOrangeRed
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Multinational - Strategic
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The truth at any cost lowers all other costs.
BE the Force!