Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National
Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological Operations
Operational Aspects of the
COMET Collaborative Project
Participants
• Stony Brook University:– Brian Colle, Mike Erickson
• NWS New York City:– Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson Vaz,
Adrienne Leptich
• NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly:– Al Cope
• NWS Eastern Region Headquarters– Josh Watson
• NWS MARFC:– Joe Ostrowski
Objective
Integrate data from the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES)
1.Into AWIPS.
2.Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) application.
Why ?
• Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic hydrology on small, fast responding basins.
How??
• Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the Web.
• Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to integrate into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor.
Data
• Web
• AWIPS
• GFE
Web
http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html
http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.html
Precip Plumes
AWIPS
• 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data
• Available ~11 UTC
• 36 Hour Forecast
• Volume Browser:– Members– Means/Standard Deviation– Probability of Exceedence
AWIPS
AWIPS – QPF Members
AWIPS - Mean
AWIPS – Temperature Members
AWIPS – Wind Members
AWIPS - Concerns
• Installation Instructions are Available.
• Still needs some “clean-up.”
• New “build” issues.
• Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.
SSHP
Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP
1.Deterministically: From the AWIPS GFE
2.Stochastically: From the Stony Brook EPS
Accessing SSHP
1. GFE QPF - Deterministic
Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for use with SSHP
Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed
In SSHPBasins:
– Lodi - Saddle R.– Gardiner – Wallkill R.– HoHoKus – Hohokus Brook– Springfield – Rahway R. – Beacon Falls – Naugatuck R.– Southbury – Pomperaug R.– Yantic – Yantic R.
2. EPS into SSHP (under development)
• Experimenting with the Lodi Basin.
• Stony Brook University is producing hourly resolution basin averaged precipitation.– RR2 Product (ftp’ed):
• Mean• Worst Case scenario• Individual member data
Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour 32
Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin
Worst case
Mean Average
GFE QPF
SBU Ensemble Members
Selecting Basin QPF in SSHP
Example Worse Case in SSHP
Future Work
• Automate the FTP of Data
• Train Staff
• Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble hydrographs
The Future in SSHP