Opportunities for Research and Innovation in the Built Environment Cross-disciplinary challenges
DCLG and Arup experience
Professor Jeremy Watson FREng FICE FIET
Director: Science & Technology, Arup & Ex-Chief Scientific Adviser: DCLG
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Arup
• A trust, not a public company
• 11,000 employees worldwide
• 90 offices
• Multidisciplinary
• Driven by belief in benefiting society and delivering the best quality of
work
• Investing to develop knowledge and capability
Research a key differentiator, together with Design Excellence and
Quality Engineering
• Research Champions with Design & Technical Executives in each Region
• Close linkage with Foresight and Skills/Knowledge groups
• Dedicated research investment fund, internal and external working
• Example: Investment in contactless recharging of electric vehicles
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• A key part of client work since our formation in 1946
• Research creates de-risked innovation for clients
• A vital market differentiator for our premium services
• 55 doctoral students
Research is in Arup’s DNA
Arup claims approximately
5% of revenue as eligible
R&D for tax credit
Challenges for Public and Private Sectors: Examples: Building Sustainability and Social Care
Drivers and Trends: CO2
CO2 rise derived from
Antarctic ice core
measurements and readings
from Mauna Loa, Hawaii.
James Watt’s steam engine
developments took place in
the 1750s
Around 45% of all present
carbon emissions come
from existing buildings, with
~25% from homes
• Tipping point – 500ppm? Currently 400ppm (Scripps Institution) Ice caps melt, more sunlight absorbed, trapped CH4 & CO2 released
Keeling curve
Research under the Living with Environmental Change programme; NERC, ESRC, EPSRC
Temperature data & modelling
Summer 2003:
normal by 2040s, cool by 2080s
Observed temperatures
Simulated temperatures
Stott Nature 2004 – updated to 2007 – HadGEM1
Met Office
Priorities for the Built Environment
Adaptation (time-frame 0 to 50+ years) – extreme weather
o Global temperature increase has already led to seasonal extremes; 23,000 excess
deaths in EU in 2003, ~900 in UK
o Need to design buildings to ensure that compliance with high code levels does not
make homes unsafe in extreme weather
o Greater incidence of intense rain with urbanisation - pluvial flooding
Energy cost / shortages (time frame 5 to indefinite years)
o Global depletion of fossil fuels and exhaustion of indigenous fossil fuels – but
Shale Gas a mid-term benefit
o Drive to de-carbonise central energy resources – need to ‘go nuclear’
o Need to minimise energy consumption in buildings
Mitigation (time frame 0 – 200+ years)
o We have to live with effects of already-emitted carbon for 200+ years
o Ultimately we must bring carbon concentration to an equilibrium point
o Possible active sequestration – CCS plus atmospheric abatement
o Buildings viewed at district-level should be carbon neutral or negative
Retrofit issues
Issues
~22m homes to be retrofitted by 2050 1600 per day from now ‘till 2050
o £5,000 - £20,000 cost per home?
o Impact of £110bn - £440bn
o Inhomogeneity of stock implies challenge in achieving ‘standard solutions’
o Lack of standard solutions implies difficulty in obtaining cost-down through scale, and
spread in cost/performance ratio
Needs
o Cooperation across the supply chain – collaborative industry behaviours
o Deployment at scale to create standard solutions
o Skills to install and obtain specified performance
o Understanding influences on user behaviour with respect to energy consumption (can
persistent behavioural norms be established)
o De-risked finance models – validation of performance & pay-back
o ‘Investment-quality energy audits’ (work underway by UCL and NPL)
HMG is committed to an 80% reduction in
carbon emissions by 2050,
80%+ of existing buildings will still be here in
2050
Retrofit case study: Drum Housing
Measures:
- Energy efficiency:
- Cavity wall insulation
- Loft insulation 300mm
- Double glazed windows
- Low-energy light bulbs
- Draught proofing & ventilation
- Waste water heat recovery
- Renewables:
- Ground source heat pumps
- Solar Photovoltaics
Savings:
- 50% on bills (~£600pa)
- 75% C-saving
Part of ‘Generation Homes’ initiative
www.generationhomes.org.uk
Cost per home £22,750 ► £10,000
( 38 ► 17 year payback)
6 semi-detached homes
Retrofit cost vs. CO2 reduction
Source: National Refurb Centre 2011
Uses complete Refurbishment Portal dataset
Prerequisites for the Green Deal
1. The expected financial savings must be equal to or greater than the
costs attached to the energy bill, known as ‘the Golden Rule’
2. The measures must be approved and the claimed bill savings must be
those accredited through this process
3. The measures installed must have been recommended for that property by
an accredited, objective adviser who has carried out an assessment
4. The measures must be installed by an accredited installer
Points with respect to Green Deal
Thermal management interventions – readiness to deploy
o Technical measures
o Skills
o Performance
Predictability of achieving expected thermal performance (energy savings)
o Materials and sub-systems; performance to specification?
o Industry capability
o User behaviour
o Measuring outcomes – Building Energy Metrology
Attractiveness of finance proposition
o ‘Golden rule’
o Finance provider issues
DECC Energy Act 2011 – First Green Deal Q4 2012
Key Technologies
Materials
o Insulative (e.g. vacuum-aerogels)
o Thermal storage: sensible heat and phase-change (PCM)
o Advanced functional – PV coatings, thermo-electric, etc.
… (DCLG recently commissioned research into state of the art heat
storage and insulation materials)
Energy conversion
o Solar thermal for heating and cooling (absorption cycle)
o Photovoltaic: Si, CdTe → Polymer → Biotechnology
o Wind turbines: (district, rural)
o Heat pumps: refrigeration cycle and advanced Peltier
o Biomass combustion from renewable sources
ICT, including Control & Instrumentation
o Active zone control in buildings – condition only where needed
o ‘Network control’ of individual appliances
o Intelligent, self-learning controls (e.g. NEST)
Behavioural Research challenges
• Building and product design influences sensitivity to behaviour
• Rebound and contrary behaviours
• How to engineer design from objective outcomes?
• Transition dynamics – adoption curves
• Role of regulation and fashion alongside technology
• Need for multi-disciplinary research to guide engineering and policy
• Systems which learn (and maybe question) occupant choices and behaviour
Behaviour is a dominant effect compared
with physical interventions
Behaviour Change
A spectrum of socio-technical interactions
Joint project with RIBA, Royal Academy of Engineering and
Arup
Workshop and publication
Products
• Behavioural outcomes well understood
• Product Designers
Buildings
• Cultural impacts drive design, but behaviours are a weak influence
• Architects, sub-system design
Districts
• Evolutionary development, little design
• Planners, political influences
How do Design, Architecture and Engineering
Influence Behavioural Outcomes?
Agenda-creating collaborative initiative running between Royal Academy of
Engineering, RIBA, Arup, ESRC and four government departments
Key points
• Environmental issues for the Built Environment include the need for: Adaptation to a changing climate, Fuel costs and shortages, Need to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (requirement for 80% reduction by 2050)
• Buildings account for 45% of the Greenhouse Gas footprint of the UK, homes around 25% of the total
• Main issue is retrofitting existing buildings; 80%+ of those we have now will be in use in 2050 – around 20m homes
• Green Deal will support cost of basic (fabric) retrofit – recovered from energy bill add-on. Installations must conform with ‘Golden Rule’ – that energy bills will be less than those before retrofit, despite add-ons
• Cost of retrofit currently high and variable
• Appeal of providing Green Deal finance unproven, given uncertainty of payback
• Variability arises from user behaviour, quality of installation, price of materials and components
Assisted Living
Our Aging Demography
• The UK has a growing and ageing population
• 15.4m people have at least one long term condition in England
• Numbers will grow (250+% increase in 50 years) also growth in multiple
conditions
• The aging population consumes 70% of health and social care budget
• People want to be supported to live independently (minimise hospital
admissions
But
• People aged 50+ spent £276bn in 2008 – about 44% of total UK family
spending
Our aging demography: the numbers
2002 2012 2022 % growth
2002 to 2022
Older disabled
people
2, 690,000 3,080,000 3,765,000 40%
Receiving
informal care
1,970,000 2,260,000 2,760,000 40%
Residential
Home
240,000 275,000 335,000 38%
Nursing Home 145,000 165,000 205,000 40%
Public
expenditure
9.5 12.9 18.8 98%
Private
expenditure
5.4 8.5 12.5 133%
Total GDP 1.5% 1.6% 1.9%
Projection of Economic Impact from Aging
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Pensions
Healthcare
Long-Term Care
Unem
ployment benefits
Education
2007
2060
Percentage of GDP (EU27)
Source: EC '2009 Ageing
Report: economic and budgetary
projections for the EU-27
Member States (2008-2060)'
~100%
increase
Social Care
• Assisted Living can keep people in their own homes safely and for longer, at
reduced cost
• A combination of sensors, IT systems and service packages
• Trials by DH (the Whole Systems tele-health demonstrator) showed:
o Mortality reduced by 45%
o Emergency admissions reduced by 20%
o A&E visits reduced by 15%
o Bed days reduced by 14%
o Elective admissions reduced by 14%
• Research needed in systems-scale deployment and business models
“Unless we do something, by 2030 all of the authority’s
revenue will have to be spent on care of the elderly and
disabled” – Outer London local authority
Relevant Research Council initiatives: MRC – Life-long Health and Well-being, TSB – ALIP,
DALLAS (Delivering Assisted Living Lifestyles at Scale)
Assisted Living – a systems approach
Acknowledgement: Plum -
2010
• Sensors
• Local
intelligence
• Communications
• Real-time
services
Synergies in Smart City services
Telemedicine Telecare Energy
optimisation Security
Real-time service
business 1
Real-time service
business 2
Summary
Some ‘wicked problems’ are emerging – we have no option
but to address these
Key opportunities for research and innovation with large
social and economic impact
Research collaboration and knowledge sharing and across
HEI, private and public sectors is key to success
The UK has a large national investment in research and a
great ranking in research quality
Overall, for the built environment,
Science and Engineering in Government
Context – for Government
• The challenges are stronger than ever, with financial restrictions pulling
against environmental and demographic and other social drivers
• Knowledge and resource sharing are increasingly important factors in
effective collaboration (Local Economic Partnerships are playing a role)
• The capacity to seek evidence and, commission and absorb knowledge
varies across the Departmental community
• Solutions?
o Working with universities to create networks of expert advisers?
o Digests of university research freely available?
o Localisation of university engagement with communities? (Witty Review)
o Government knowledge needs raised to the level of national priorities?
Each year, government departments invest around £3.4 billion on
scientific research and development to support their work (£1.3
billion spend by civil departments and £2.1 billion by defence). The
breadth of issues is extensive: from facing environmental
challenges through improving health and wellbeing to preventing
and reducing crime
A further ~£6.2 billion is routed to UK universities via the Higher
Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE), the seven
Research Councils and the Technology Strategy Board
A Significant investment
Overview of Science & Engineering in Govt
GCSA = Government Chief Scientific Adviser
CSA = Chief Scientific Adviser
SAC = Scientific Advisory Committee
DG = Director General
GO-Science = Govt Office for Science
PSRE = Public Sector Research Establishment
HSL = Health & Safety Labs
NNL = National Nuclear Labs
LGC = Lab of the Govt Chemist
EPSRC = Engineering & Physical Sciences RC
ESRC = Economic & Social RC
BBSRC = Biotechnology and Biological Sciences RC
MRC = Medical RC
NERC = Natural Environment RC
AHRC = Arts & Humanities RC
SFTC = Science and Technology Facilities Council
CST = Council for Science & Technology
• AHRC = Arts & Humanities
• BBSRC = Biotechnology and Biological
Sciences
• EPSRC = Engineering & Physical Sciences
• ESRC = Economic & Social
• MRC = Medical RC
• NERC = Natural Environment RC
• SFTC = Science and Technology Facilities
Council
The Research Councils routinely collaborate
with each other and with the Technology
Strategy Board (TSB), also with business,
government and the charity sectors. This
leverages investments of knowledge and
money as well as promoting dissemination
and take-up of research outcomes.
Research councils
• AHRC = Arts & Humanities
• BBSRC = Biotechnology and Biological
Sciences
• EPSRC = Engineering & Physical Sciences
• ESRC = Economic & Social
• MRC = Medical RC
• NERC = Natural Environment RC
• SFTC = Science and Technology Facilities
Council
The Research Councils routinely collaborate
with each other and with the Technology
Strategy Board (TSB), also with business,
government and the charity sectors. This
leverages investments of knowledge and
money as well as promoting dissemination
and take-up of research outcomes.
Research councils
Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council
• EPSRC is the main UK government agency for funding research and
training in engineering and the physical sciences
• Invests more than £850 million a year in a broad range of subjects – from
mathematics to materials science, and from information technology to
structural engineering
• Themes:
• Support for core STEM disciplines
o Digital economy (cross-council)
o Energy
o Engineering
o Global uncertainties
o Healthcare technologies
o Uncertainties – led by ESRC
o Information and communication technologies (ICT)
o Living with environmental change – led by NERC
o Manufacturing the future
Economic & Social Research Council
• The UK's largest organisation for funding research on economic and social
issues
• Supports independent, high quality research which has an impact on business,
the public sector and the third sector
• Total budget for 2011/12 £203 million
• Themes:
• At any one time over 4,000 researchers and postgraduate students in academic
institutions and independent research institutes
o Economic growth and sustainable development
o Behaviour change and intervention
o A Fair and Vibrant Society
Technology Strategy Board
• Goal to accelerate economic growth by stimulating and supporting
business-led innovation
• Since formation:
• Funding interventions:
The UK’s national innovation agency
o Invested around £2.5bn in innovation, with partner and business contributions (inc RCUK, RDAs, DAs
and industry)
o Worked with around 4,000 companies to stimulate UK innovation
o Brought more than 110 universities to engage in business innovation projects
o Worked with businesses to create large-scale technology demonstrators in low carbon vehicles, low
impact buildings and digital services
o Innovation Platforms : programmes around challenges that will shape future markets - such as stratified
medicine, sustainable agriculture and food, and the environmental impact of buildings
o Collaborative R&D
o Knowledge Transfer Networks: promoting open innovation - >50,000 members
o Knowledge Transfer Partnerships
o SBRI: £100m of contracts awarded to more than 600 SMEs
o Catapult centres – collaborative centres of excellence (c.f. Fraunhofer)
New Opportunities for Universities to work with Government
• Policy advice
o Gaps – need to augment diminishing cohort of Policy Analysts in the Civil
Service: loss of key specialists
o Working examples: Cambridge Centre for Science and Policy and UCL Centre
for Engineering Policy (Brian Collins)
• Advisory group membership
o Many Departments or CSAs retain science advisory committees
• Staff secondments
o Policy fellowships with ESRC and other councils
• Policy-driven research themes
o Responding to real-world challenges
o Win – win – win for HEIs, RCs and government
Research in Arup responding to new challenges
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Research context in Arup
• Research is essential to maintain and grow market position
– and identify incremental and step-out opportunities
• Research is typically ‘applied’ and anticipatory of business
need: time scale – ‘now’ to three years+
• Emphasis on innovation: ‘Concept to Commercialisation’
• Research ‘pull’ – from Business leaders and ‘push’ – from
Design and Technology networks and academic partners
• Research fund to encourage internal and external
investment
• Driven by strategic roadmap
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Research themes – aligned with skills Networks
capabilities 3-D Modelling Education Materials Acoustics Electrical Services Mechanical Services
Advanced Analysis Energy Moving Structures Air Quality Environment People Movements Archaeology / Heritage Facades Pharmaceuticals Asset Management Flood management Planning Regulation
Audio Visual Fluids Product Design Aviation Geology Project Management Building Physics Geotechnics Public Health Business Performance Healthcare Railw ays
Business Systems Highw ays Safety Communications Human Behavioural Dynamics Tunnelling Contaminated Land Industrial Consulting Universal Access Controls Inspection Repair Refurb Urban Design
Corporate Responsibility Investment appraisal Vehicle Design Cost IT Venues Demand Analysis Know ledge Management Vertical Transportation
Design Research Landscape Waste Development Planning Lighting Water Dynamic Behaviour (structures) Logistics Workplace Performance Ecology Maritime
Economics
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1. Strategy
• Corporate research roadmaps
• Regional and group strategy facilitation
2. Network
3. Funding
Research Offering Components
• Set up and management of research consortiums
• Links to research funding bodies
• Grow and develop the research network
• Internal engagement in multidisciplinary research
• Engagement with key external partners
4. Building
capability
• Doctoral training
• Incubating business opportunities
Arup Research – Global Deliverables
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Research Strategy
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Relationships with National Funding Agencies
• Proactive mission to promote mutually-beneficial relationships
• Thought-leadership and ‘agenda calibration’
• Unbiased sectoral representation
• Roadmap-sharing to assist national research agendas
• Awareness of and response to Calls
• Consortium formation
• Strategic Partnerships
• EPSRC allowing definition of Programmes under joint funding
• Work in EU under European Construction Technology Platform & E2B PPP
• Dialogues with NSF, NIST, ARC, MOST, SSTC, etc.
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• €2bn over 10 years PPP to fund RD&D
• Driven by industry in E2B Association (E2BA)
• Reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions
• Arup funded by UK government to represent UK in E2BA
• Arup coordinates the European network liaison points
Energy Efficient Buildings PPP
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Research Funding at Arup
In house research
• R&D calls for proposals for Global and Regional projects £600k
• Research Challenge and Strategic Relationship funding ~£200k
External collaborative: regional and global • External Collaborative Research projects £600k Global
• Pays Arup staff time and expenses for collaborations
• Leverage between x1.5 and x4
Manage
~£2.5m
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Arup’s Knowledge Supply Chain
‘New’
‘Next’
‘Now’
• Emerging trends
• Policy options
• Informing the agenda
• Roadmaps and strategic agendas
• ‘Needs’ interpretation, gap identification
• Knowledge generation & transfer
• Communities of practice
• Validation and deployment of knowledge
• Delivery of capability through people
Time
Foresight
Professional
Learning &
Skills
Research
Commercialisation
Concept
Now, New, Next – a knowledge pipeline
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Arup University
Arup has always provided a learning culture
In 2007, we added a formal programme of staff development
Doctoral
modules
Masters
modules
Professional
modules
Accredited EngD qualification
4-year, on-the-job
Driven by business need
Intensive 10 day specialist training
Provided by HEI partners
Distance and face-to-face CPD
Provided by regional skills networks
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Doctoral College
“The Doctoral College was set up to create a community of Arup research students, where
they can share knowledge, experiences and foster links between internal Arup experts and
external doctoral students, their academic supervisors and host universities.”
Doctoral College established Spring 2011 55 members and growing
Includes all students undertaking PhD study either part funded or supported by Arup (e.g.EngD’s,
CASE Award, Arup University DM modules, part time study)
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HEI Collaboration supported by Arup
Lecturing and supervision
Studentships
• Internships
• Sponsored first degree students
• Masters (incl. Arup branded courses)
• Doctorates, Eng D
Research collaboration
• Co-sponsorship of government funded research
• Use of specialised facilities at universities: cooperation/fee for
service
• Contract research
Strategic engagement
• Endowed chairs at departments
• Staff education-Arup University
• Membership of university advisory groups
Memoranda of Understanding
are signed with universities
where long-term, multi-level
collaboration is taking place
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Examples of Arup Collaborative
Research
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