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N A T E T O B I K F O U N D E R C O M P L E T E B A N K D A T A
OPPORTUNITIES IN U.S. BANK EQUITIES
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WHO AM I?
• Write on the Oddball Stocks Blog about small cap value stocks and banks.
• Founded CompleteBankData in 2013 • Launched CompleteBankData on the Bloomberg
Terminal (APPS BANKS <GO>) in February 2015.
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WHY BANKS AND BANKING?
• ~1,000 traded banks with the same business model
• Banks easily compare against each other
• Banks are a bet on two things: • Local economy • Management team
• Banking is about exclusion • Avoid loan losses with market rate deposits and loans =
above average bank
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HOW DO WE LOOK AT BANKS?
• Multiple ways to value: • Relative valuation: P/TBV, P/E, P/anything • Deposit Premium • Discount Dividend Model • Acquisition Value
• Intrinsic Value • What a well informed private buyer would pay • Acquisition value is our proxy for maximum private market
value • Relative value metrics approximate deal multiples.
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CALCULATING ACQUISITION VALUE
• Particular formula popularized by Richard Lashley of PL Capital
• (Net Income + (cost savings ( 1- tax rate))) x 10
• This is how bankers and regulators look at their and competitor banks.
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OPPORTUNITIES BY ASSET SIZE
Assets # Banks
Less $100m 1873
$100m -‐ $500m 3283
$500m-‐$1b 674
$1b-‐$5b 496
$5b-‐10b 84
$10b-‐20b 36
$20b-‐$50b 36
$50b-‐$150b 23
$150b+ 13
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EASTERN VIRGINIA BANKSHARES (EVBS)
• A bank with $1b in assets and 20+ branches located around Richmond, Virginia. • Market cap: $79m
• Acquired Virginia Community Bank in Nov 2014
• Asset growth of 10.9% annually since 2003
• Trades at 86% of TBV
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EVBS: DOWNSIDES
• Bank still has TARP outstanding • Initial $24m in TARP à $15m repaid = $9m outstanding
• High cost operations • 89% efficiency ratio
• Low profitability • ROA .52% • ROE 4.29%
• High integration expenses • $1.8m
• Messy capital structure • Short term borrowing • Trust Preferreds
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EVBS GOOD NEWS
• All issues can be “fixed” • Asset quality improving
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EVBS: GOOD NEWS
• Rapidly repaying TARP • Should result in $.03-$.04 EPS improvement
• Integration costs ending
• Growing loans with a management aware of their issues.
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EVBS VALUE?
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MANY OTHER CHEAP SMALL BANKS
• Many opportunities with small banks • Low P/TBV and P/E banks • Opportunity set shrinking
• Growing small banks • Mutual conversions
• Too many tickers to list….ask me afterwards!
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REGIONAL BANKS
• Not too big • Not too small
• Lending still moves the needle • Tied to regional economies (Midwest, Mid-Atlantic
etc)
• Non-SIFI means less regulatory burden
• Innovative and forward looking
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RELATIVE VALUES > $100B
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FIFTH THIRD BANCORP
• A large Midwest bank: $119b in assets • Trades at • 10.5x earnings • 1.1x book value • 1.3x tangible book value
• Quick stats • 9.64% ROE • 1.1% ROA • 7.96% TE/TA • 3.21% Nim • 59% efficiency ratio
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FIFTH THIRD (FITB)
• Third best ROA of peers • ROA/Relative Value –> best of peer group
• Great operating metrics
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FIFTH THIRD (FITB)
• Why cheap? • US Bancorp killing Fifth Third in similar markets • Inability to organically grow
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FIFTH THIRD (FITB)
• Deposit Marketshare
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FIFTH THIRD (FITB)
• Why cheap? • Higher funding cost compared to peers • Lower NIM • Slight fall in revenue recently
• A potential acquirer to First Niagara? • Would expand from $119b to $160b and put them in the
same ranks as BB&T.
• Compared to peers they are the best cheapest regional bank
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FIFTH THIRD (FITB)
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LARGE BANKS
• Large banks are unique in that they’re growth constrained. • Many don’t derive the majority of their revenue
from banking at all à trading, investment banking, derivatives , capital market activity • All are classically undervalued: low P/B • Face regulatory headwinds
• Some such as WFC and BAC are potentially good “buy and hold” investments • Collect dividends as they conduct traditional banking
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LARGE BANKS
• Will large banks ever trade at 2-3x book? • Doubtful they fail • Also doubtful they grow like weeds
• Investors will benefit • Buybacks • Dividends
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NON-U.S. BANKS
• U.S. Bank market unique • French banking market fairly unique as well • Credit Agricole Regional Banks worth a look
• Most countries are concentrated • Look for conservative lending and performance
through past crises
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QUESTIONS?