Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Secretariat
Conference Services
Please find attached the presentation by Major General Paul Schafer, United States European
Command, on the U.S. European Command's Strategy for Active Security, delivered to the
565th Meeting of the Forum for Security Co-operation on 26 November 2008.
FSC.DEL/184/08 26 November 2008 ENGLISH only
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The overall classification of this briefing is UNCLASSIFIED
USEUCOM USEUCOM Strategy of Active SecurityStrategy of Active SecurityMaj Gen Paul Schafer, J5/8Maj Gen Paul Schafer, J5/8
26 Nov 200826 Nov 2008
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• Maintaining ready forces for global operations (unilateral or in concert with coalition partners)• Securing strategic access and enabling global freedom of action• Enhancing transatlantic security through support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO)• Promoting regional stability• Countering terrorism
EUCOM Region and MissionEUCOM Region and Mission
Defend the Homeland Forward and Support U.S. and Partner Strategic Interests by:Defend the Homeland Forward and Support U.S. and Partner Strategic Interests by:
47 Countries +
3 Principalities and the Holy See
47 Countries +
3 Principalities and the Holy See
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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3
EUCOM OrganizationEUCOM Organization
One of Only Two Forward Based Geographic
Combatant Commands
One of Only Two Forward Based Geographic
Combatant Commands
Ramstein, GermanyRamsteinRamstein, , GermanyGermany
USAFEUSAFEUSAFE
Heidelberg, Germany
Heidelberg, Germany
USAREURUSAREURUSAREUR
Stuttgart,GermanyStuttgart,Germany
SOCEURSOCEURSOCEUR
Stuttgart,GermanyStuttgart,Germany
MARFOREURMARFOREURMARFOREUR
Naples,Italy
Naples,Italy
NAVEURNAVEURNAVEUR
Mons, BelgiumMons, Mons,
BelgiumBelgium
SACEUR/CDR EUCOMSACEUR/SACEUR/CDR EUCOMCDR EUCOM
Stuttgart, GermanyStuttgart, Stuttgart, GermanyGermany
DCDR EUCOMDCDR DCDR
EUCOMEUCOM
TOTALMilitary StrengthUSAREUR 45,740USAFE 26,960 NAVEUR 6,580MARFOREUR 140SOCEUR 1,860Reserve/NG (daily avg) 3,800TOTAL 85,080
TOTALTOTALMilitary StrengthMilitary StrengthUSAREURUSAREUR 45,74045,740USAFEUSAFE 26,960 26,960 NAVEURNAVEUR 6,5806,580MARFOREUR MARFOREUR 140140SOCEURSOCEUR 1,8601,860Reserve/NG Reserve/NG (daily (daily avgavg)) 3,8003,800TOTALTOTAL 85,08085,080
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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• Dynamic and diverse region• Wide spectrum of
challenges• Rising Russia• Extremists in Europe
– Sanctuary, battleground, recruitment, logistics base
– Al Qaida (AQ)-inspired terrorist groups plotting operations
• Potential flashpoints in Balkans, Caucasus, Levant, and Turkey’s Eastern border
• Illegal immigration and drug trafficking
• Shifting Demographics
• Dynamic and diverse region• Wide spectrum of
challenges• Rising Russia• Extremists in Europe
– Sanctuary, battleground, recruitment, logistics base
– Al Qaida (AQ)-inspired terrorist groups plotting operations
• Potential flashpoints in Balkans, Caucasus, Levant, and Turkey’s Eastern border
• Illegal immigration and drug trafficking
• Shifting Demographics
Strengthened PartnershipsStrengthened PartnershipsStrengthened Partnerships
Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready Forces
Transformed, Expeditionary, Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready ForcesTrained and Ready Forces
Capable and Expeditionary NATO
Capable and Expeditionary Capable and Expeditionary NATONATO
Russia as Responsible Partner
Russia as Responsible Russia as Responsible PartnerPartner
Strategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of Action
Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests is AssuredProtection of Allies, Partners, Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests is Assuredand U.S. Interests is Assured
Regional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis Precluded
Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and CapacitiesImproved Partner Nation Improved Partner Nation
Capabilities and CapacitiesCapabilities and Capacities
Strategic VisionStrategic VisionTheater Objectives & Security ChallengesTheater Objectives & Security Challenges
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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DISRUPTED PLOTS
EUCOM region continues to be key battleground in the War on TerrorTerrorism
Madrid Bombings
Istanbul Bombings
London Bombings
Köln IED plot
ATTACKS
Nov 03 Istanbul, Turkey Synagogues, UK Banks
and Consulate
Feb 04 Moscow, Russia Subway bombing
Mar 04 Madrid, Spain Commuter train bombings
Nov 04 Amsterdam, NL Theo Van Gogh murder
Jul 05 London, UK Subway/bus bombings
Jul 06 Köln, GE Failed IEDs on trains
Jun 07 London, UK Attempted VBIEDs vs. London theater district, Glasgow airport
Dec 04 Berlin, GE Iraqi PM assassination plot
Jun 06 Timisoara, RO VBIED/mass casualty plot
Aug 06 London, UK Plot vs. US-bound aircraft
Sep 06 Odense, DE Plot vs. various U/I targets
Sep 06 Oslo, Norway Plot vs. US/Israeli interests
Sep 07 Ulm, GE IJU plot vs. US targets
Van Gogh Murder
IJU plot
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Madrid Bombings, March 2004
Violent Extremist Operations
London Bombings, July 2005
• Europe is key battleground with global terrorist movement sustained by “franchise” operations– Istanbul (2003), Madrid (2004), London (2005)
• Three Germany-based, Pakistan-trained Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) operatives arrested Sep– Planned to use 730kg of H2O2 in Vehicle Born
Improvised Explosive Devices
– Possible targets: Frankfurt airport, Ramstein, discotheque
Foiled Germany IJU Plot, September 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
4
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Attacks Killed
20062007
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Attacks Arrests
20062007
Europe & Eurasia Islamic Terrorist Attacks & Fatalities
• Significant increase in overall terrorist arrests and attacks in Europe from ‘06 to ’07
– Most separatist related in France and Spain• Increasing violent extremist attacks and related fatalities in
Eurasia– Vast majority in Russia
• Increasing threat level seen from violent extremists in Europe
– In 2007, less than 1% of failed & successful terrorist attacks but almost 20% of arrests
– Increased arrests related to attack planning and recruitment
– Public statements by AQ senior leadership continue to tout Europe as desired attack venue
– Europeans see AQ mergers in Africa as increasing threat to Europe due to increasing external ops focus
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Attack Related Recruitment
20062007
Europe Terrorist Attacks & Arrests
Europe Islamic Extremist Arrests
Sources: NCTC WITS, EUROPOL TESAT 2007, 2008
+17%
+240
%+1
80%
+18%
+75%
+48%
Violent Extremism Increasing in Europe & Eurasia
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO
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• AQ has stated desire to target West’s economy
• Foreign fighters from Iraq have experience in attacking energy sector
• Returning foreign fighters of concern
Energy SecurityUNCLASSIFIED
Al Qaida attack on French oil tanker, Limburg (2002)
Crude oil tanker fire, BosphorusStraits (1994)
UNCLASSIFIED
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9
European Energy Infrastructure
LNG Terminals
oilgas
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Nabucco
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED
• Network has potential vulnerabilities
UNCLASSIFIED
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Cyber Threats
• Cyber attacks against Georgia during Aug 08 conflict
• April 2007 cyber riot in Estonia
• Precipitated by Estonian govt. decision to move WW-II statue
• Hackers conducted denial of service attacks for several days
• Press reports of Chinese hackers trying to access European govt. computers
• Hackers constantly attempt to attack Pentagon computer systems
• Undersea cable cuts off Egyptian coast significantly reduce regional communications
UNCLASSIFIED
Soviet World War II Statue in Estonia
Source: Reuters, AP, BBCUNCLASSIFIED
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• Caucasus is a key transit route for Caspian energy
• BTC oil pipeline
• SCP gas pipeline
• Area plagued by numerous ethnic conflicts
• Russian-Georgia conflict stopped flow for several days
• May increase risk calculation for future pipeline projects
• Re-ignition of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is potential threat to pipelines
Regional InstabilityCaucasus
UNCLASSIFIED
North Ossetia
BTC/SCP Pipelines
Nagorno-Karabakh
South Ossetia
Abkhazia
Ethnic Conflicts
Inguschetia
Chechnya
Dagestan
UNCLASSIFIED
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• Kosovo: Declaration of Independence on 17 Feb 08– Violent protests following declaration; border
posts and U.S. Embassy Belgrade damaged (17 Feb – 31 Mar)
• Bosnia: Real integration of ethnic entities problematic - increase in ethnic rhetoric
• Only one high-level Persons Indicted For War Crimes (PIFWC) still at-large
Regional InstabilityThe Balkans
162 PIFWCs161 In Custody / Dead
1 At Large• RATKO MLADIC: Genocide
(Siege of Sarajevo, Srebrenica)
162 PIFWCs161 In Custody / Dead
1 At Large• RATKO MLADIC: Genocide
(Siege of Sarajevo, Srebrenica)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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• Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK), a.k.a. KGK
• Armed wing: People’s Defense Forces (HPG)
• Terrorist wing: Kurdistan Freedom Hawks (TAK)
• Estimated 3,000-5,000 PKK combatants in northern Iraq
• Turkish cross-border operations against PKK safe havens
• U.S. supports Turkey in its struggle against terrorism
Regional InstabilityTurkey’s Eastern Border
UNCLASSIFIED
PKK Fighter
Source: BBC, CNNUNCLASSIFIED
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• Syria:– Continues to play de-stabilizing role
in Lebanon
• Palestinian Authority Territory: – Fatah vs. Hamas– IDF vs. Hamas, Fatah
• Lebanon: – LAF vs. Fatah al Islam– Government vs. Hizballah– IDF vs. Hizballah
• 2006 Israel/Hizballah conflict:– Renewed conflict possible– Regional implications
Regional InstabilityThe Levant
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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• Derived from National level guidance
• Supports two over-arching Strategic Objectives:
• Defend the Homeland
• Create and Maintain an Environment that Supports the Strategic Interest of the U.S. and our Allies and Partners
• USEUCOM is uniquely positioned to actively engage our strategic partners in Europe, Eurasia, and the Levant
• Forward presence and strategic location
• New and enduring partnerships allow us to proactively foster opportunities and rapidly respond to challenges
EUCOM Strategy of Active SecurityEUCOM Strategy of Active Security
BUILDING PARTNERSHIP CAPACITYBUILDING PARTNERSHIP CAPACITY
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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• Expresses the Commander’s intent and guidance for the AOR• Provides guidance and a framework for everything we do
• Security Cooperation Activities• Exercises and Training • Contingency Planning and Crisis Response • Resourcing and In-Theater Force Posture and Installations
• Realities of our environment demand a new focus• Security Cooperation, Training and Exercise, and Contingency and
Theater Posture Plans will no longer operate as separate “stovepipes”• Focus is on integrated, proactive efforts in the theater to achieve EUCOM
Objectives• Re-think our processes for long-term security cooperation
• Proper resourcing of Peacetime Engagement versus Contingency Response
• Collaborating with Allies and partners to achieve common goals
A Strategy of Active SecurityA Strategy of Active SecurityUNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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In Execution• Global War on Terror• Combating Weapons of Mass
Destruction• Theater Posture Plan
The Strategy and Theater Campaign PlanThe Strategy and Theater Campaign Plan
Strategy of Active Security
EUCOM Service Component Security Cooperation Plans
FunctionalPlans
ContingencyPlans
8 Theater Objectives
• Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready Forces
• Capable and Expeditionary NATO
• Strengthened Partnerships with Europe
• Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and Capacities
• Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests is Assured
• Strategic Freedom of Action
• Russia as a Responsible Partner
• Regional Crisis Precluded
8 Theater Objectives8 Theater Objectives
•• Transformed, Expeditionary, Transformed, Expeditionary, Trained and Ready ForcesTrained and Ready Forces
•• Capable and Expeditionary Capable and Expeditionary NATONATO
•• Strengthened Partnerships Strengthened Partnerships with Europewith Europe
•• Improved Partner Nation Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and CapacitiesCapabilities and Capacities
•• Protection of Allies, Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests Partners, and U.S. Interests is Assuredis Assured
•• Strategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of Action
•• Russia as a Responsible Russia as a Responsible PartnerPartner
•• Regional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis Precluded
Country Level Security
Engagement Plans
Deviations from ourTheater Campaign Plan
• CRISIS RESPONSE
• EMERGENCIES
Enduring Engagement by USAREUR, USAFE, CNE, MARFOREUR, and SOCEUR
Bilateral Engagement by EUCOM through our Offices of Defense Cooperation at the US Embassies and Consulates
Theater Campaign Plan
Europe EurasiaRegional Campaign Plans
NSS, NDS, NMS, UCP, GEF, JSCP
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Increasing Partner Nation Capacity & CapabilityIncreasing Partner Nation Capacity & Capability(Implementing A Strategy of Active Security)(Implementing A Strategy of Active Security)
• Coalition Support to OIF and OEF• International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF)• Georgia Sustainment, Stability Operations Program
• State Partnership Program (SPP)• Partnership for Peace (PfP)• Membership Action Plans (MAP)• Partner SOF Development• NATO Special Ops Force Coordination Center• Maritime Domain Awareness and Security
• Operation ACTIVE ENDEAVOR• Maritime Cooperation in the Black and Caspian Seas
• Joint Task Force-East• Joint and Combined Exercises• George C. Marshall Center
Potential for near-term increases to support for Georgia and neighboring countries
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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OIF/NTM-I (2/6) OIF/NTM-I AND OEF/ISAF (13/14)
Exporting Security From EuropeExporting Security From EuropeCoalition Partners in OEF/OIFCoalition Partners in OEF/OIF
Iceland(ISL)
OEF/ISAF (21/25)
Belgium(BEL)
Germany(DEU)
Finland(FIN)
France(FRA)
Sweden(SWE)
Great Britain(GBR)
Greece(GRC)
Hungary(HUN)
Japan(JPN)
Jordan(JOR)
Italy(ITA)
Korea, Rep. of(KOR)
Kazakhstan(KAZ)
Latvia(LVA)
Lithuania(LTU)
Mongolia(MNG)
Norway(NOR)
Netherlands(NLD)
New Zealand(NZL)
Poland(POL)
Portugal(PRT)
Macedonia(MKD)
Ukraine(UKR)
Singapore(SGP)
Slovenia(SVN)
Slovak Rep(SVK)
Turkey(TUR)
Romania(ROU)
Australia(AUS)
Azerbaijan(AZE)
Croatia(HRV)
Bulgaria(BGR)
Estonia(EST)
Czech Republic(CZE)
Denmark(DNK)*
Canada(CAN)
El Salvador(SLV)
Armenia(ARM)
Albania(ALB)
Georgia(GEO)
Bosnia and Herzegovina(BIH)
Spain(ESP)
Austria(AUT)
Ireland(IRL)
Luxembourg(LUX)
ISAF/OEFCOALITION PARTNERS
FROM EUCOM AOR:
87%
OIFCOALITION PARTNERS
FROMEUCOM AOR:
75%
Iceland(ISL)
Building Partner Capacity brings Forces to the Fight
75% 87%
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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• EUCOM Basing• Re-positioning Land Forces
• Changing Priorities and Perspectives• Strategy of Active Security vs. War Plans• Fostering Security to less stable regions
• Global Force Posture• Whole of Government and Multinational
Approach
Transforming EUCOMTransforming EUCOMUNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Cold War EUCOM (1990)Cold War EUCOM (1990)
EUCOM 1990 FootprintPersonnel: 315,000Installations: 1421
• Heavy, massed forces• European Center of Gravity• Robust infrastructure• Extensive family support
structure
EUCOM 1990 FootprintEUCOM 1990 FootprintPersonnel: 315,000Personnel: 315,000Installations: 1421Installations: 1421
•• Heavy, massed forcesHeavy, massed forces•• European Center of GravityEuropean Center of Gravity•• Robust infrastructureRobust infrastructure•• Extensive family support Extensive family support
structurestructure
Major Operating Base (MOB)
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Main Operating BaseForward Operating SiteCooperative Security Location
Main Operating BaseMain Operating BaseForward Operating SiteForward Operating SiteCooperative Security Cooperative Security LocationLocation
Transformed EUCOM FootprintTransformed EUCOM Footprint
EUCOM 2008 FootprintPersonnel: ~ 86,000
Installations: 438• Expeditionary presence• Agile and sustainable• Enables regional approach• Strategic effects at Strategic
distances
EUCOM 2008 FootprintEUCOM 2008 FootprintPersonnel: ~ 86,000Personnel: ~ 86,000
Installations: 438Installations: 438•• Expeditionary presenceExpeditionary presence•• Agile and sustainableAgile and sustainable•• Enables regional approachEnables regional approach•• Strategic effects at Strategic Strategic effects at Strategic
distancesdistances
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Requires a Whole of Government andRequires a Whole of Government andMultinational ApproachMultinational Approach
• Integration of EUCOM activities with the rest of USG is a Commander’s priority
• EUCOM shares interests with other agencies:• Partner Engagement objectives are similar throughout USG and
international agencies and departments• EUCOM SAS executed in cooperation with established
organizations such as NATO, OSCE, EU, and others• Continue to improve interagency participation from strategy
development and planning to execution and assessment• Establishment of Commander’s Interagency Engagement Group
(CIEG)• Coordination with Embassy Country Teams• Encourage cross-talk and coordination at conferences and
clearinghouses• Strategy of Active Security Working Group- SASWG
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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Capable and Expeditionary NATO
Capable and Expeditionary Capable and Expeditionary NATONATO
Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests
is Assured
Protection of Allies, Protection of Allies, Partners, and U.S. Interests Partners, and U.S. Interests
is Assuredis Assured
Europe as a Global PartnerEurope as a Global PartnerEurope as a Global Partner
Strategic VisionStrategic VisionTheater ObjectivesTheater Objectives
Strategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of ActionStrategic Freedom of Action
•• Forward Forward Defense Defense of Homeland of Homeland
•• Protect the Protect the Interests of the Interests of the US, our Allies, US, our Allies, and Partnersand Partners
Transformed, Expeditionary,Transformed, Expeditionary,Trained and Ready ForcesTrained and Ready Forces
Russia as Responsible Partner
Russia as Responsible Russia as Responsible PartnerPartner
Improved Partner Nation Capabilities and CapacitiesImproved Partner Nation Improved Partner Nation
Capabilities and CapacitiesCapabilities and Capacities
Regional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis PrecludedRegional Crisis Precluded
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
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