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OUR ENERGY FUTURE: UPDATED
SC 203January 23, 2008
John Bush
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TECHNOLOGY UPDATE
• Energy Sources/Conversion
• Energy/Power Transmission
• Energy Applications
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FOSSIL FUELS
• Petroleum
• Natural Gas
• Coal
• Carbon Sequestration
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GETTING RID OF CARBON DIOXIDE
• Disposal into space
• Storage in the ocean
• Fertilization of the ocean with iron
• Reaction with basalt
• Storage in forests
• Storage in soil as “biochar”
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GROWING DIESEL
• Jatropha--an Indian weed– Needs little water– Grows on poor soil– Is not a food crop– Seed oil makes excellent diesel fuel– Estimated to be profitable at oil prices above $43/bbl
• Algae– Absorbs carbon dioxide effluent from power plants– Yields oil suitable as diesel fuel and starch for ethanol– Pilot demonstration in Arizona– Scale up at Arizona Public service Four Corners
Station
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CELLULOSE BASED ETHANOL
• Bluefire Ethanol– First plant in Lancaster this year– Pilot plant in Izumi Japan
• Coskata– Recent investment by GM– Pilot plant planned for 2008: Warrenville
Illinois– One among several start-ups using bacterial
processing
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TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
• Ground transport– Light duty vehicles– Trucks/buses/construction equipment– Rail
• Air transport
• Water transport
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LIGHT DUTY VEHICLESPOWER TRAINS/POWER SOURCES
• Power train– Mechanical– Electric– Hybrid
• Power source– ICE: Otto, Diesel– Battery– Supercapacitor– Fuel cell: hydrogen/reformer
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LIGHT DUTY VEHICLESENERGY SOURCE/INFRASTRUCTURE
• Energy source– Fossil fuel– Biofuel– Hydrogen– Electric grid– Solar
• Infrastructure– Energy sources– Energy distribution– Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance
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WHERE DO THESE STAND?AN UNOFFICIAL SCORECARD
TS* PI* DI* VI*• Internal combustion
– Gasoline/diesel fuel +++ +++ +++ +++– Methane +++ +++ + +++– Hydrogen +++ - o ++– Biofuels ++ + + ++
• Electric– Battery ++ +++ + ++– Supercapacitor + +++ + ++– Hydrogen fuel cell + - o o– Reformer fuel cell + +++ + -– Solar/hybrid +++ ++ ++ +
*TS = Technology status*PI = Energy production infrastructure*DI = Energy distribution infrastructure*VI = Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance infrastructure
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ELECTRIC VEHICLES: PROJECT BETTER PLACE
• Employs a new business model– Consumer buys the car– Consumer rents the battery—monthly fee based on
usage– Networks of charging and exchange stations
• Employs “proven” technologies– Lithium ion battery developed Renault and NEC
• Highway 124 miles/charge (100?)• Lifetime 1500 charges• Top speed 70 mph
– Renault-Nissan will make the car in Europe
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PROJECT BETTER PLACE& RENAULT/NISSAN/NEC
• Starting a pilot program in Israel– People drive less than 100 miles/day 90% of the time– Tel Aviv: 150 charging stations and 2 swap stations– Economics: $0.026/mile versus $0.32/mile – Expect 500,000 charging stations and 100,000 cars
on the road by 2010 (or maybe 20,000 by 2011!)
• May extend the pilot to– Small countries: Denmark, Holland– Crowded cities: London, Paris, Singapore, New York– China?
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OTHER ALL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
• Daimler Smart Car: all electric version by 2009
• Tesla Roadster: 2008 ($100,000)
• Aptera Three Wheeler: 2008 ($30,000)
• Phoenix Motor Cars Pick-up truck: 2008
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DAIMLER SMART CAR
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TESLA
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APTERA
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PHOENIX MOTOR CARS
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PLUG-IN HYBRIDS (PHEVS)
• Quantum Technologies/Fisker Karma luxury sedan: $80,000 2009
• GM/A123: Chevy Volt commercial by “late” 2010— “a stretch”
• GM-Saturn: Concept car shown in Detroit• Ford: SUV in test with Southern California
Edison• Toyota/Panasonic: commercial customers
by 2010
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FUEL CELL POWERED VEHICLES
• Honda FCX Clarity: Sedan
• GM Chevy Equinox: SUV consumer evaluation in 2008
• Ford Fusion 999: 200 mph sports car
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HONDA SOLAR HYDROGEN STATION
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HONDA HOME HYDROGEN STATION
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SUMMARY-- 2015
• ICEs using fossil fuels will dominate • ICEs using biofuels may still have to overcome inadequate fuel
availability• Hybrid vehicles (plug-in) may form a significant part of the installed
capacity• Fuel cell vehicles may still have to overcome
– Limited life and high cost of fuel cells– Limited availability of hydrogen– Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience
• All-electric vehicles may still have to overcome– Limited range and high cost of batteries– Unresolved safety issues– Limited recharging sites– Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience